Ever since Mills explained to us all how the concept of luck is one we ought to abandon I have attempted to remove it from the arsenal of verbiage which I bring to bear on these pages. The problem I’ve discovered is, as with all proscribed words, one simply finds new ways to say the same thing. As much as we can philosophically and logically dismiss the very existence of fortune we still perceive it weaving an arbitrary thread through our lives.
Allow me one illustration if you will. As I sit and write these words I am listening to the rain coming down in a steady, relentless effusion. This downpour was just getting into its stride as my daughter and I crossed the threshold of her driveway having taken our dogs on their morning constitutional. We had walked for the best part of an hour in unseasonally warm and above all dry conditions and agreed that we had dodged a bullet, been, if you will, extraordinarily lucky.
Yesterday evening, coming home from a valiant attempt to present a radio show through a stifling head cold, I wondered at the hand fortune has dealt Arsène this season. The brickbats he has received in the past for finishing second in the group stages of the Champion’s League have been as hysterical as they have been unwarranted. The simple fact is you have to beat some good teams to win any cup competition regardless of when you meet them.
So this season he delivers the first place finish demanded of him by the snotty nosed ingrates among his ‘fan’ base and what happens? The runners up in his group go on to meet the mighty Barcelona who, on last night’s evidence at least, appear a mere shadow of their former mighty selves. The one year when finishing second and facing the Catalans might have been a desirable outcome he has the rank bad luck to steer his side to a two legged tie with the wholly more efficient German champions.
Let’s pull no punches we have not been in the best form of late. As ever injuries and international duties have created instability at the heart of the midfield, these, combined with Xhaka’s suspensions are, I would hazard, at the root of our problems. We have, in spite of these issues, managed to grind out enough results to keep us in contention but against the real form team were found wanting.
So what does this all mean for tonight’s game? Clearly we can’t rely on luck but it would be nice and indeed useful to catch a few breaks this evening. We’re playing one of the tournament favourites at their own ground whence very few foreign teams return victorious. Bayern have, in their last five matches conceded only one goal and scored eleven. No one is underestimating the scale of the hill we need to climb tonight.
So let’s look on the positive side. They can be beaten. Dortmund, Rostov and both the Madrid sides have done so this season. Arsenal has beaten them in this very competition and in Munich to boot. Olivier Giroud scores against Manuel Neuer for fun. When facing two legged tie I always feel happier playing away from home in the first match. Come back with a goal and then a draw or a narrow defeat is anything but a disaster.
Whatever happens banish all thoughts that it might have been us thrashing Barcelona last night and remember that this is only the preliminary. Nothing will be decided after the final whistle, we shall be at half time with everything still to play for on March the seventh.
Above all remember that no matter how unconvincing we’ve been in the league recently we still possess some of the finest players in the world and one of if not the finest manager in the world. No one gave us a chance in any of the great historic European nights in our history so why should we pay any attention to the negative ninnies who write us off before a ball has even been kicked? Remember these are the same voices who predicted with total confidence that we had blown our chance of topping the group in the first place. They were wrong then and they can be wrong again tonight.
If you are travelling to München or have already arrived then may I recommend the Augustiner Keller which can be a whole lot of fun even in the cold weather. If like me you can’t manage to get away to watch the match in person then you can always recreate the atmosphere by having your family members dress in shorts and braces and splash you with Weihenstephaner Hefe Weissebier while delivering a lusty chorus of Hände zum Himmel. If nothing else it might drown out or at least distract you from the awful commentary in which BT Sport so prides itself.
Wherever and however you are watching I hope you have an enjoyable experience and that the result sets us up for an exciting second leg. My prediction is a three nil away win with Ospina saving a penalty and Giroud scoring all three goals. Whatever the score though, I won’t be unhappy to see a return to ‘Lucky Arsenal’ in tomorrow’s headlines. Has a certain ring to it don’t you think?
Positively Arsenal 
Prost young Stew and a fine match day morning to you.
Great game last night in Paris, the home side tore the Catalans a metaphoric ‘new one’ offensively and defensively so I am not too sure we can call for the priest yet.
I anticipate we shall see an equally rigorous start from our hosts this evening, keen to jab the spear in early. Concentration, concentration, concentration. If we can resist the sturm und drang* for 15 minutes with Ospina unpenetrated I see great prospects.
*I’m getting into this German
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Sehr wahr, Andy, Konzentration und Auflösung wird sehr wichtig sein
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Super Post, Steww. Thank you.
The definition of luck seems to be straight forward until it gets discussed, and then those chewing the fat about it seem to be speaking in diverse tongues.
Let’s hope it is Lucky Arsenal indeed – by whatever definition, even if a Giro shot from the right wing hits the corner of the goal post, ricochets around 6 different players, encompassing noses, Bayern elbows, sets of knobbly knees, and a large ass, before losing pace the whole time and, just before wilting across the goal line, their CH intercepts it and hoofs it mightily — and somehow slices it into the net.
1 : 0 to the Lucky, Lucky Arsenal —- suits me! lol
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well we will have to be very careful of their potent 3 man strike force Vorsprung, Durch, Technik,
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thankfully no BT stream for me tonight, at last Irish TV have decided to show Arsenal in the CL this season. It only took 7 games. The only question on their coverage will be who the panel is, will we be treated to Liam Brady or will that bollocks Didi Hamann be there spouting his usual anti Arsenal anti Wenger bullshit.
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David @Melkyor_Arsenal 50m50 minutes ago
Tonight, twitter gonna be just fine with no WOBs to comment. Since they think it’s pointless to qualify for the CL,they won’t watch the game
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Morning, Andy,
Sturm und drang is the Arsenal signature tune – if football tactics could be linked to music – but with the best will in the world I just cannot see AW changing his footballing psychology at this end of his career. And it may well pay off.
For myself, I am hoping for a miserly passing masterclass restricted to our half of the pitch, and then, after say fünfzehn minuten, as you recommended, we can let loose the hounds of hell and storm und drang can commence.
My only German is ‘Ich liebe dich’ but it has often paid off für mich! lol
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well if any more reason was needed for us to want to beat Sutton next Monday it has been provided by them getting sponsored by the Sun
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jesus christ, one Arsenal blog is calling on Arsenal to play like Hull tonight, “its the only chance we have”
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sorry that should be play like Burnley, same thing really
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Eds
You and we all know that is because pointing out that afc need to play like they did during the 2-0 victory over Munich last season would sound bizarrely like giving afc some praise:
Peak mertseacker: at his greatest in spite of the years starting to catch up with him, the conditions of that match suited the older Mertesacker down to a tee, shame he had no chance of being in contention for a starting berth tonight. A different kind of test for Mustafi tonight, one he’ll be keen to impress in.
Can’t wait for the football!
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Rocky#7 @AFC_Forehead83 50m50 minutes ago
Reports suggest @FA have stopped @Arsenal giving ALL the money to Sutton including TV Money.But app, we are greedy cunts&just a business🤔
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I think we’re going to look completely different with Xhaka in the midfield tonight. I am counting on Iwobi to have a screamer tonight.
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Everyone a little edgy this afternoon, polishing their bayonets, gently oiling their mechanisms and zeroing their sights.
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As long as we don’t confuse any Munchkins from Munchen with any Huns from Hungary(?) we should be ok
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COYG
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Excellent Steww. COYG
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At the risk of saying the obvious, they could play brilliantly and stuff us 3 or 4 nil, as could we them if it is that sort of night. Neither result (or any in between) would necessarily mean anything more than out of two good sides one enjoyed the initial rub of the green (or one individual had a sublime or gorblimey moment.) In a knock-out cup it’s all a bit in the lap of the Gods. Which come to think of it is pretty much what Stew said!
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David Ornstein @bbcsport_david 3h3 hours ago
Theo Walcott has been dropped to the bench for Arsenal’s Champions League last-16 first leg at Bayern Munch tonight #FCBvAFC
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Get us in the mood;
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A little local delicacy;
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And almost inevitably;
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That is a solid, experienced starting line up and a well equipped bench.
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Blitzkreig! the Arsenal way. No Ides of March!
Solid! Gibbs, the Ox and Iwobi, are defensive misfits!
Blitzkreig, it must be!
He who dares, wins.
COTG
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When you look at their line up, its a bit of a worry.
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Good stuff Steww.
COYG
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So exclusive to PA: Wengers just been talking to the German tv on the match day fernsehen programe, and has said to them (he was smiling when he said it) that he will decide in either March or April about what he will do (stay or go).
Viel Glück Arsenal!
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BM player forearm smashed the Ox then went down and rolled around. Ref have the foul to Arsenal. Won’t get that from pgmob.
(That doesn’t say what’ll happen for rest of match but I was pleased to see that.
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where the fuck was coquelin going, robben was the one he needed to close down, not worry about what was out wide.
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Hell of a goal from Robben.
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scheiße! Great goal though…grrr
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silly needless booking for Mustafi.
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Real Madrid 0-1 Napoli
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we can’t get the ball, and when we do we give it away far too easily
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Arsenal being outplayed so far
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Alexis wins freekick on right edge of the area
ozil takes it, neur lets it bounce off him,
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penalty to Arsenal, corner in, kos got foot to it, and then got kicked on the foot
alexis has poor shot saved, but somehow scores the rebound while surrounded 1-1
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Alexis on the penalty had an air shot at the rebound, but then got possession and turned it home, is that the bit of luck to turn this game on its head
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Bloody hell, I thought he would miss it! WEll done Alexis though!!!! COYG!!
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Alexis booked cos Martinez dived
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Bayern whinge almost as much as Barcelona do
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Paddy @VieiraPaddy 16m16 minutes ago
Lahm is causing Gibbs so many problems. The last time the German right was this dominant Anne Frank was running out of ink.
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xhaka hits shot straight at neur
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Ozil in at a tight angle, and neur saves
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HT: 1-1
outplayed for long spells in the game, but still in it,
I would bring on Welbeck for Iwobi for the second half, they game has by passed the lad.
Wenger said before the game that we are playing a 4-4-1-1, with ozil as the second striker, but what 4 in midfield has done is left us with no one wide, and not enough players getting forward, of getting space to receive the ball. BM have had load of room out wide to get attacks going.
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That was an amazing half of footy. BM’s goal was beautiful, following on from some dominant play by the hosts.
Alexis lousy looking pen followed by determination – finding a way – and he did.
More chances at both ends.
It’s a ****ing Great game of football.
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Arsenal have actually had more shots on target than BM, with only 27% possession
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Sitting back rather than being outplayed I’d say. If we could stop giving them the ball whenever we get it I’d be happier but you have to say we have had two very good chances and could easily be going in 3 – 1. I’ll happily take 1 – 1 at half time.
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think that Alexis has now got 20 goals this season.
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