The Refs Are Biased (Part 2)
To conclude my two-part series on referee bias, I have taken my inspiration from the great American philosopher and writer Mark Twain.
In my initial piece I was categorical. Based on penalties awarded:
“The unbiased data for the past 20 years is very clear; of all the top teams in the Premier League Arsenal is the least favoured team by Premier League officials.”
Yet there remains great skepticism and reluctance to accept the stone, cold logic of the data. Apparently there is an enduring belief that the referees are acting without bias, that they are honest arbiters doing a thankless job under difficult circumstances. Apparently we accept the gospel of the mainstream media (BBC) that the formation of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) in 2001 meant:
“….they will also be more accountable regarding their performances in matches.”
And lead to:
“….improving the overall standard of refereeing.”
In today’s final installment, I will demonstrate based on data of Penalties-Against (PA) that Arsenal is the most penalized among the top clubs in the Premier League and by a very wide margin. In making these decisions the PGMOB has been far from accountable and the promised improvements in the standard of refereeing has been a singular failure.
The data for the past 20 years confirm that the traditional top-four clubs in the premier league (AFC, CFC, LFC and MUFC) have the lowest PA compared to the rest. This is exemplified by the first 10 years of the Wenger era. It is logical that during this era when Arsenal and United dominated the League they would have the lowest PA, with MUFC marginally ahead within a relatively narrow range of 0.2 goals. LFC had the highest PA which makes sense since they have been less successful in winning titles although averaging 3rd in league position. Also note that during those first 10 years the top-four clubs all had less than the league average PA of 3.4. Below I will demonstrate the significance of the latter information.
| 1st 10-Year | League | AFC | MUFC | LFC | CFC |
| Total | 684 | 16 | 14 | 30 | 24 |
| Club Avg | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
In the second 10-years was a 38% increase in penalties awarded by the referees compared to the first 10. Amazingly, not only did Arsenal experience 206% increase in penalties awarded against the club but the average number of penalties was higher than the average for all clubs in the premier league, 4.9 vs 4.7.
| 2nd 10-Year | League | AFC | MUFC | LFC | CFC |
| Total | 943 | 49 | 30 | 40 | 30 |
| Club Avg | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Meanwhile the percentage increase in PAs for all other clubs was substantially less.
| 1st vs 2nd 10-Year | League | AFC | MUFC | LFC | CFC |
| Increase | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| % Increase | 38% | 206% | 143% | 33% | 66% |
The second greatest increase was for United at 143%. But at 3-against they are well within the league average. In the context of refereeing, it is apparent in the post-Ferguson era the officials now have a greater willingness to make penalty calls against them, when before they seem to be in abject fear of the United boss. For those who think this is merely an opinion, note in Ferguson’s last year (12/13) on his way to the title, the refs awarded zero penalties against United. In a team with two notoriously physical central defenders, Vidic and Ferdinand, who were arguably past their best, this was an amazing statistical achievement.
Back to the main point. According to the unbiased data, PL referees over the past 10 years found AFC to be not only the worst of all the traditional top-four clubs in penalty-area defending but that it had been surpassed by LFC, a club whose average league position declined from 3rd in the first 10 years to 5th in the second 10. In total, Liverpool averaged only 1 more PA vs 2.3 more for the Gunners, a 130% difference. Hello!
| 1st vs 2nd 10-Year | League | AFC | MUFC | LFC | CFC |
| Increase | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| % Increase | 38% | 206% | 143% | 33% | 66% |
Yet over the past 10 seasons, based on mean averages, in every statistical category, except for Draws (D) and Goals Against (GA), Liverpool was inferior to Arsenal.
| Pos | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Points | |
| AFC | 3 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 71 | 39 | 32 | 73 |
| LFC | 5 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 66 | 39 | 26 | 67 |
Given AFC’s general league superiority over LFC, it defies any statistical justification for the referees to award 130% more PAs against the Gunners compared to the Merseysiders.
Furthermore, if the referees are calling 38% more penalties then over the long term it should be distributed according to the league ranking of the club, as it was in the first 10 years. That is an iron-law of statistics. If not there is evidence of clear bias.
As someone with a little knowledge of how the federal government measures fair lending violations against protected classes in the USA, a prima facie case could be made of “disparate treatment” of Arsenal by the PGMOB. Many banks and lending institutions have been heavily fined and sanctioned for such apparent bias. Who holds the PGMOB accountable?
Let me take this analysis a little further. If we expand the group of top-clubs to five, to accommodate the rise of Manchester City who were basically a yo-yo club until the advent of external money in 2006 allowing them make massive spending on new players. Virtually overnight they became a top club in the premier league and the 3rd best in penalty-area defending, overhauling Arsenal. Is it justifiable?
| 2nd 10-Year | League | AFC | MUFC | LFC | CFC | MCFC |
| Total | 943 | 49 | 30 | 40 | 30 | 33 |
| Club Avg | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
Skeptics and critics of my findings in Part I, that they were getting more favorable treatment than AFC in penalties-for, argued that City simply had better attackers. Yet for much of those years a number of their offensive-players were ex-Arsenal such as Adebayor and Nasri and they had managers like Hughes and Mancini who were arguably more conservative than Arsene Wenger. Yet they averaged 1 penalty more, 6.4 vs 5.4.
In the PA department the difference was even greater. Within 10 years they averaged 3.3 vs Arsenal’s 4.9, a 1.6 goal difference. Were their defenders vastly superior to Arsenal’s, sufficient to gain a significant edge in penalty area defending?
Au contraire. Many of those years among their defenders were ex-Arsenal such as Kolo Toure, Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna. So in retrospect the personnel was relatively similar. Furthermore, in the last three years under review they were managed by Pellegrini who was arguably as attacking in team setup as Arsene Wenger. Yet since 2006, there is only one season when they had more PAs than Arsenal.
In comparing the PAs conceded by both clubs in the past 10 years, I was struck by the data for 15/16 season. The referees only awarded one penalty against them despite their having disasters-in-waiting such as Mangala, Otamendi and Demichelis as central defenders. Collectively they were poor, conceding 41 goals compared to Arsenal’s 36. My recollection was of them mis-tackling and clumping opponents in their own box and the PGMOB letting them get away with it. Yet both teams ended up with equal number of penalties against. Can’t stop Shaking My Head (SMH).
| Year | AFC | MCFC |
| 15/16 | 1 | 1 |
| 14/15 | 3 | 4 |
| 13/14 | 6 | 1 |
| 12/13 | 6 | 2 |
| 11/12 | 4 | 3 |
| 10/11 | 9 | 4 |
| 09/10 | 7 | 7 |
| 08/09 | 5 | 4 |
| 07/08 | 5 | 4 |
| 06/07 | 3 | 3 |
In analyzing the data it is significant to note for most of the last 10 years, premier league officials have been under the leadership of Mike Riley (the main actor in ensuring Arsenal’s loss in Game 50), in his capacity as manager of the PGMOB. While Riley’s bias in Game 50 was manifest, he is no longer a referee and we have no available evidence to prove how his past bias currently affects his subordinates. However what is evident from the data is institutionally they are increasingly biased towards the big-spending clubs. As I demonstrated in Part I the big money clubs, except Arsenal, are increasingly and constantly getting the Penalties-For at the expense of the smaller clubs.
“Gone are the days when a mid-table team, between 1997 and 2006, would be ranked first in penalties awarded; such as Southampton (97/98), Middlesbrough (99/00), Newcastle (00/01, 01/02 and 03/04) and Crystal Palace (04/05).”
Seemingly the refs have consciously or sub-consciously internalized the message that, to succeed in the PGMOB, one must favor the big clubs which, except for Leicester in 15/16, now permanently monopolize the top-positions in the league. What is rarely discussed in the mainstream media is the prime reason for the PGMOB’s establishment was to make refereeing a lucrative full-time occupation. According to the BBC report in 2001, previously referenced, former FIFA referee Roger Milford who advocated the PGMOB stated:
“There are footballers out there earning £20,000 to £30,000 a week – and that is at the bottom end of the scale,”
“So referees deserve to earn the sums being talked about.”
If a lucrative career is the prime driver of a full-time referee then it is consistent with human nature to have little desire to make seemingly controversial decisions against a big-moneyed club which could potentially be a career ender.
That would explain why, in last week’s game between Chelsea and Hull, when the underdogs were already one goal up, there was arguably a clear case for a penalty against the Blues which would have given them a crucial two-goal advantage. This appeal was vigorously waived off by the referee. It may also explain why the referee studiously ignored the foul by Chelsea in the build-up to their first goal.
Is it any wonder we rarely see any big upsets of the big boys by the lower level teams especially in the second-half of the seasons? Does this explain why there are reports of a significant fall off in attendance and viewership of premier league matches especially those involving mid and lower-level teams? Why attend or give these matches any attention when the results are already pre-ordained?
On the basis of the evident disparate treatment of Arsenal by the refs when it comes to penalties and moreso an increasingly systemic bias against the smaller clubs, I am forced to revise my assessment of the chances of Arsenal overhauling Chelsea in the run-in for the title. When I did my first An Open Letter to the Arsenal First Team blog, I estimated a 50:50 chance which meant it was uncertain and unpredictable statistically. Now I am convinced it ranges between 5%-10% which, should it happen, would make it miracle. My eyes have now turn to the cups as our most realistic chance of any silverware.
PS: Thanks to usamazaka at Positively Arsenal who provided the source information on the founding of the PGMOB.
Postscipt
A legitimate question was asked in the comments section of this blog why I excluded Spurs from the analysis. Because they were never a consistently top-four team I eliminated them so as to compare like-with-like between the 1st and 2nd-10 years. To eliminate any suspicion that the data is being fudged to prove a point, below is the PA numbers for THFC:
| Total | Avg | |
| 1st -10 years | 42 | 4.2 |
| 2nd – 10 years | 44 | 4.4 |
The striking thing is, being a markedly inferior team compared to Arsenal, never ever exceeding AFC in league position for the past 20 years, we have a remarkable statistic that for the past 10 years they had less PA vs Arsenal; 44 compared to 49.
I rest my case your honor.
Positively Arsenal 
As a matter of interest in Part One Spurs featured but are not in Part Two – why ?
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“Skeptics and critics of my findings in Part I, that they were getting more favorable treatment than AFC in penalties-for, argued that City simply had better attackers.”
And explained their caution by pointing out that Citeh scored a lot more more goals in the seasons of refereeing “infamy” in the 18 yard box.
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I did a lot of analysis on this for Untold Arsenal a couple of years back. Key point, as you allude to, is that Mike Riley took over PIGMOB in 2009 – so that would be a better cut-off point for your analysis. Prior to then, from memory, Arsenal were always awarded more penalties than they conceded in a season, subsequent to that they were always awarded fewer (possibly not last season which post-dated the analysis, and excepting a couple of ties).
This season, even though we were awarded a large number of penalties in our first few games, we have since conceded a ridiculous number.
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Interesting Shotta. Thanks. What if any is the correlation between these stats and The Fair Play league. From memory, AFC are normally well above average in the FPL?
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A5 – I left out Spurs because they have not been a traditional top-4 team, neither in first or last 10 years. As for your point about Man City I addressed all of that in the blog. Man City is an en egregious example of the greater bias towards moneyed teams in terms of both Penalties-For and Penalties-Against.
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I may have put this up before but if anyone fancies the figures for penalties by season and by club they are here;
http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premier_League_Penalty_Statistics.html
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This is quite damning evidence, and it only tells part of the story. Look at the number of times an Arsenal player has had their limbs broken due to over the top tackling, the number of fouls called against us that are not called for other teams, the number of yellow and red cards per foul, 50:50 decisions almost always going to the opposition teams and many others that cost us points over the season.
With the games getting more competitive and tight, such small details are what decide a title winning season.
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Great post again shotta_gooner
I am a believer in stats as they show habits and trends.
I know what the trend is saying but I am going to wait for the next two games to see if we have a chance at the title.
I have to keep the faith.
Although looking at the stats it does not look good.
Still not happy at the performance at City (even with off-side goal)
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Pete: As I stated in the blog it is too simplistic to attribute the bias to Mike Riley. There is no evidence to prove he has carried forward his pro-United bias in the PGMO. What is clearer to me from the data is the evidence of institutional bias. I have suggested that at the root of such bias is the fact that the PGMO is catering to the greed and careerism of match officials. As has been documented by academics when officials in similar positions as referees, such as regulators, are dependent on an industry for their career and benefits they begin to cater to the powerful. At its most extreme we have the phenomenon of regulatory capture. The PGMO acknowledges there is affiliation bias and will not have refs from the same geography officiating games with clubs from the same area. But what of regulatory bias.
My view is until decisions on penalties and offsides are removed from the subjective interpretation of the refs, through use of technology, the current biased state of affairs will continue.
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WWWB: When I was watching last week’s PL matches, particularly Hull v Chelsea, it became apparent to me that the ref was not going to make any big calls against the rich powerful team from the south who were on their way to a title. Originally I was hopeful, even expectant that Hull would get something out of the game. They were well organized defensively and seeking to attack on the break. Chelsea was being frustrated. When, however, the blatant penalty to make it 2:0 advantage was waived off and then Chelsea was allowed to foul in the build-up for the first goal, it was clear that the “little” team was not going to get the calls. It inspired me to research the 20-year history of the PL to see the patterns in the award of Penalties For and Against. The evidence was overwhelming; there is an institutional bias towards the big moneyed teams who play according to the conventional rules (unlike Arsenal). There is no statistical rule to explain the distribution of penalty decisions in the PL over the past 10-years. I dare anyone to propose one that makes sense.
Based on the data and the evidence I therefore have revised my forecast; chances of Arsenal going on a run and catching Chelsea for the title are slim to none. I rate them as between 5%-10%. In other words it would be a virtual miracle if we pull it off.
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You’re probably aware I’m one of those convinced something is rotten in pgmol Denmark.
My take is that it’s very unlikely to be full on corruption, but that if it were it would produce remarkably similar results.
My eyes have been telling me for years that something is wrong; I question what’s behind those eyes as much as I can, but as far as the stats go, they are no help in dismissing my beliefs. Quite the opposite. I’ll put up another neat little stat in a bit.
I can only speculate about causes, and what the mechanism could be for producing those results which i believe are similar to those if corruption was occurring.
One thought on the former has been developing a little recently : refereeing as the will of the (football) people.
I’ve watched three or four FA cup games in the last two rounds where a giant killing is a possibility, and every time the ref has been extremely lenient with the underdog team.
The more obvious ways being clear yellows not given, deserved second yellows not given, extra aggression permitted, forget getting a penalty ye giants (but maybe beware yourselves). A nasty elbow to the face? Phhh, get up. Sound familiar?
Meanwhile the commentators themselves, with their great love of upsets, thoroughly approve of the modified approach from the refs, and would be very upset with them if,say, they dished out a straight red or early second yellow to the underdogs, unless someone actually had a broken leg.
As for myself, I’m conflicted, because bloody right I like my upsets,too, especially if it’s a rival on the receiving end; so if a ref was strict in these games, which always benefits the superior football team and hurts the underdog’s chances, in one sense at least they are going against my will or desire. The ends if not always the means. But, yeah, to be honest at least one ignoble part of me wouldn’t mind at all if a lump booted Alli in the air and didn’t get the card they deserved
Now, how the hell could we end up suffering uniquely, week in week out, as a result of a similar phenomenon?
That’s for further speculation and musing, maybe. And alone it would not be sufficient to account for all of pgmol’s questionable behaviour
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shotta
Your point about Hull penalty call still stands, but if memory serves me right the score was 1-0 Chelsea, or 0-0 maybe, at the time.
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Hull have had 10 penalties awarded against them this season in 22 matches, including one against us with the miscreant despatched by red card. Favouring the rich Southern club and all that etc.
The proposition that Chelsea and their penalty is therefore evidence of a potential rottenness in official places is plausible – either that or Hull’s defending is shite ?
Given that only two clubs have managed to give away 10 penalties over 38 games in the last ten PL seasons I know where money is going.
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Shotta – the stats very clearly show that the shift from an expected penalty distribution (where penalties For and Against approximate to goals For and Against), which was the case up until 2009, went dramatically into reverse that year – and have been stuck that way ever since (consistent with normal statistical fluctuations). The statistical likelihood of Arsenal’s penalty distribution being so negative since 2009 is a minute fraction of one percent.
There could be any number of reasons for this change – but the one clear extraneous change is that Mike Riley took over as head of PIGMOB that summer. Correlation doesn’t prove causation – but if you disagree with this interpreation I would like to hear some other possible explanations!
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The stat I mentioned earlier concerns second yellow cards.
At some point, perhaps in the immediate wake of us benefitting from an opposition player getting a late double yellow, I decided to look into those incidents, as my impression was that in such cases- opposition double yellow- the sending off always seems to come late in the game for us.
Anyway, over the five year period I looked at we had 8 double yellows, the opposition 7, which looks a bit of a ‘nothing to see here’ job, though I’d still say any stat which suggests we are dirtier than our opposition over a long period is distinctly odd, given the simple truth we are out-dirted in virtually every game we play, often by a gigantic margin.
But anyway, 8-7, nothing to see here.
Things became much more interesting when looking at the time of the respective 2nd yellows.
Arsenal double yellows Opposition double yellows
(11-12) 70,77,78; [45] 90,87,90 [3]
(12-13) 69,62; [49] -none-
(13-14) 67; [23] -none-
(14-15) 78; [12] 89,90,84 [7]
(15-16) 55 [35] 54 [36]
Total minutes with ten men (- injury time)
Arsenal
45+49+23+12+35 = 164 mins (2hrs 44 mins of football)
Opposition 3+7+ 36 =46 mins (0hrs 46 mins of football)
Drinkwater’s early second yellow truly was remarkably unusual. Without it we have played against ten men as a result of 2nd yellows for a grand total of ten regulation minutes over nearly 200 (190) tough games of premier league football.
Those who bully us must have the most remarkable aptitude for judging how far they can legitimately push their aggression and foulplay, a judgement so fine it almost defies the laws of probability and common sense.
Another against us (90) to add to the list from the Everton game this year.
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Let me tidy that up (i don’t have Shotta’s presentation skills)
Arsenal double yellows Opposition double yellows
(11-12) 70,77,78; [45] 90,87,90 [3]
(12-13) 69,62; [49] -none-
(13-14) 67; [23] -none-
(14-15) 78; [12] 89,90,84 [7]
(15-16) 55 [35] 54 [36]
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Rich: The presentation of the double-yellow data is still not clear.
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shotta, I’ll try again * It won’t read as i wanted it to but at least it’ll be clearer.
Arsenal double yellows
Season Time of 2nd yellow/ sending off [totals mins per year of time after s/o
(11-12) 70,77,78; [45]
(12-13) 69,62; [49]
13-14) 67; [23]
(14-15) 78; [12]
(15-16) 55 [35]
Opposition double yellows
Season Time of 2nd yellow/ sending off [totals per year of time after s/o]
(11-12) 90,87,90 [3]
(12-13) none
(13-14) none
(14-15) 89,90,84 [7]
(15-16) 54 [36]
The pattern is that we don’t tend to see our players given a second yellow very late in a game (when there is not much time for it to impact on the result); and this is completely reversed for the opposition with their second yellows overwhelmingly being very late in the day, with little time for us to get any benefit from playing ten men.
(at least I’ve got confirmation the format is different when I type a comment to how it appears when published!)
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Rich: Got it. So according to the PGMO, in the last 5 years the Gunners as a team are over 3 times dirtier than their opponents, penalized 164 minutes due to 2nd-yellows vs 46 minutes for their rivals.
I can assure you Rich that if you don’t do the data for at least the other top-4 teams, the sceptics and critics will ignore the information and treat you as a whinger.
Meanwhile the bias goes unchallenged; robbery in plain sight. As Mark Twain observed it is easier to fool people than to convince them they are being fooled.
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“Ah it will all even out at the end off the season”
Brilliant again Shotts however this is just one area in which we have been handicapped .
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It dawned on me when the Man Citys and Chelseas would get away with “physical” play against us. One would expect the Stokes to be the ones to punish Arsenal but bigger “skilful” teams do it deliberately even with “clean” players, rotationally. This suggests they know they will get away with it.
here it shows they are awarded more than they “commit”, It most likely reflects referee bias http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=Leagues
It’s as if the officials think Arsenal being a passing/possession team would only foul to kill or something. Which is stupid, Arsenal is always branded as the “weak ” team yet when our players to play hard they’re punished. Ironically the big C teams have fouled so consistently as a baseline referees need to be /convinced/ when their play is (more) dangerous. All Arsenal has to do is be “out of character” and put in tackles.
Sanchez is currently the third most tackled player in the league but this doesn’t translate into fouls/pens won and fouls on Giroud go ignored ( because he’s “big”).
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Thanks Shotta,
Excellent!
That last season for Slurgus is a real outlier, not only the immobile CBs but their entire midfield was composed of an aging and immobile Carrick – we like Carrick, but a hard running title winning midfield composed from one 30plus year old playmaker? It’s, well, I think the word that we are looking for is:
incongruous.
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shotta
Agree. It would definitely be better if I’d done same for rest of top four at least.
If I remember right I got the numbers by clicking through records for each of our games manually on one of the sites which stores records of key data- goals, booking,sendings off- from every game.
Didn’t take that long as allowed me to instantly see if someone got a red then note circumstances, but I just didn’t quite have motivation to go through all the rival teams.
I still think it’s pretty useful stuff. Results were totally in line with my impression our opponents second yellows invariably arrive very late when they do.
Even if you have the gall, or something similar, to insist our opponents do not foul us more than we foul them, the results are frankly very odd.
190 games is a hefty sample size and for that many opponents to only once rack up two bookings before the 84th minute in that time against any team is….anomalous (?), foot-ballistically, statistically speaking.
Another one I looked into around the same time as that was our head-to-head record against main rivals.
I struggled to organise that one and there was a particular problem with finding total penalty stats (main source i used only showed pens when converted).
It did follow again though the pattern of being normal-looking until about ten years ago, and then us faring very poorly.
There could be an error or two but i had us, from start of 2007-8, as 3 pens (conceded) against Chelsea’s 0, and 4 reds for us with none for them.
Their last sending off was Bhoularouz (2006-7), Utd’s last against us meanwhile was Silvestre (2004-5). Again you have to take your hats off to these guys for being able to play so aggressively against us without committing costly fouls.
In other words, if you rate our chances as being at the normal level of gaining a penalty, seeing an opponent sent off, etc, for the Chelsea game, the stats suggest you should have a rethink.
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It is odd – I remember out most successful seasons as those when we rarely finished a game with 11 men on the pitch and Paddy V still holds the record for most red cards in the PL. Keown is not far behind as well.
Its all here;
https://www.statbunker.com/alltimestats/AllTimeRedCards?comp_code=EPL&club_id=5
But in recent years you say we have suffered from referees sending our players off early – or at least earlier than the opposition ?
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I look at this, the full figures for last season for yellow and red cards for all PL clubs over 38 games ;
https://www.statbunker.com/competitions/ClubBookings?comp_id=515
and who has fewest yellow cards and just two red cards ?
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Somehow the Totts avoided a single red card last season (although had two retrospective bans) given their consistent thuggery. Still struggling to get my head around the Chelsea v Totts game – and how the match finished with 22 players still on the pitch.
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It might be paranoia, anicoll, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get us!! [lol]
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Another good piece Shotta.
Straight red cards and second yellows is another angle for analyzing potential bias. For example Spuds haven’t had a player sent off for nearly 65 consecutive games, this nearly 2 seasons of football and on-going.
Last 60 leagues games (full last season plus up to this season week 22)
Arsenal (Last 60 league games) – 6 red cards
Xhaka (Min 65) vs. Burnley. Score ATM 1-0 (for AFC). Final 2-1. Win
Xhaka (Min 70) vs. Swansea. Score ATM 3-2 (for AFC). Final Score 3-2. Win
Coquelin (Min 55) vs. Spuds. Score ATM 0-1 (for AFC). Final Score 2-2. Draw
Mertesacker (Min 18) vs. Chelsea. Score ATM 0-0. Final Score 0-1. Loss
Cazorla (Min 79) vs. Chelsea. Score ATM 1-0 (for CFC). Final Score 2-0. Loss
Gabriel (Min 45) vs. Chelsea. Score ATM 0-0. Final Score 2-0. Loss
Liverpool (Last 60 league games) – 3 red cards
Milner (Min 62) vs. Crystal Palace. Score ATM 1-0 (for Palace). Final Score 1-2. Win
Coutinho (Min 52) vs. West Ham. Score ATM 0-2 (for West Ham). Final Score 0-3. Loss
Brad Smith (Min 76) vs. Swansea. Score ATM 3-1 (for Swansea). Final Score 3-1. Loss
Chelsea (Last 60 league games) – 3 red cards
Terry (Min 95) vs. Sunderland. Score ATM 3-1 (for Sunderland). Final Score 3-1. Loss
Matic (Min 44) vs. West Ham. Score ATM 1-0 (for West Ham). Final Score 2-1. Loss
Terry (Min 54) vs. West Brom. Score ATM 1-3 (for CFC). Final Score 2-3. Win
Man City (Last 60 league games) – 4 red cards
Fernandinho (Min 32) vs. Burnley. Score ATM 0-0. Final Score 2-1. Win
Aguero (Min 96) vs. Chelesa. Score ATM 1-3 (CFC). Final Score 1-3. Loss.
Fernandinho (Min 96) vs. Chelesa. Score ATM 1-3 (CFC). Final Score 1-3. Loss.
Nolito (Min 86) vs. Bournemouth. Score ATM 4-0 (Man City). Final Score 4-0. Win
Man United (Last 60 league games) – 2 red cards
Herrera (Min 68) vs. Burnley. Score ATM 0-0. Final Score 0-0. Win
Mata (Min 26) vs. West Brom. Score ATM 0-0. Final Score 1-0. Loss
Tottenham Hotspuds (Last 60 league games) – 0, zero, nil, nada, no red cards, even after being the most serious foul playing team in the league for past 2 seasons and even now.
Again, this is for 2015/16 plus the 22 games played this season.
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HenryB: Paranoia? I can’t get my head around the undisputed fact that there was a 206% increase in penalties-against between the 1st and 2nd ten years. I am waiting for a measurable explanation.
Meanwhile most Arsenal blogs and the rest of social media argue ad infinitum about Alexis vs Giroud.
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Its odd Henry – Tottingham are left out when the data does not suit the conclusions required, but front and centre in importance when it might prove referee “bias”.
I still have not had any satisfactory response to the point I raised last week that a perfectly sensible alternative explanation for a disparity in penalty awards is that teams that attack more, as indicated by the number of goals they score, earn more penalties. No I am told, it is irrefutably referee “bias”
The best I receive was that as Manchester City, despite being PL champions, had Adebayor and Nasri on their books , so the goals scored does not count when it comes to penalties awarded (?)
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‘But in recent years you say we have suffered from referees sending our players off early – or at least earlier than the opposition ?’
Anicoll, that’s what I’m saying, yes.
I had the impression that when our opponents get double yellows against us it’s nearly always very late in the game, so I looked into it, and those were the results over the previous five seasons
I’m not sure there’s anything to find in stat bunker elsewhere which can cast the figures I was looking at in a different light.
The average sending off (double yellow only) time for all other teams over the same period would have been very useful and given more weight to what I was doing, but that’s a huge undertaking.
Anyway, I’m a bit too depressed by the news we have Atkinson at Chelsea to want to think football for a little bit. He’s my numero uno, with some distance between him and Dean, in terms of complete distrust.
They love him for our Spurs and Chelsea games for reasons which aren’t quite obvious. I guess he scores highly when his performances are assessed but from what I see he always does poorly in them.
We can still win the game, which is always what keeps me watching, but, for me, it’ll be terror on the pen front when it’s near our box, and all the rest- a red will be yellow, a yellow often nothing, someone on a yellow for them can rest safe until very late on, etc.
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Shotta,
It was just a joke.
I have always had my doubts when reading about the other blog, Untold Arsenal’s, catalogue of refereeing misdemeanours, and that is not to say they have not made a strong case, as have you, regarding referee bias — and your raw data is the essential ingredient of any conclusion that is drawn – and you seem to have 99.9% supportive agreement with your theory.
Riley was always a dreadful thorn in Arsenal’s side, particularly the notorious Manyoo/Rooney débâcle, and there have been some terrible decisions made by other referees too, over the years, but I remain unconvinced by the interpretation of the data that they have all become members of some insidious group determined to wreck Arsenal’s EPL ambitions.
I guess that makes me the 0.01% not in agreement – but it always takes a little grit to make every oyster pearl. [lol]
That does not take away from the research and effort you put into your headline Posts!!
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anicoll/Shotta,
There is always room in any scientific study for a little movement in the interpretation of data, and of course, on both sides, it is easy to slip into ‘confirmation bias’ territory and never the twain will meet. [lol]
Time to move on??
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this sounds reasonable
however if you look at the penalties against Arsenal this year – there is just one dubiously awarded (Monreal handball vs Bournemouth)
similarly in the last year i believe there was just one – Vardy at the Ems, and he got a lot like this against other teams too
we also had two pens not awarded to opposing team (Per handball against Swansea afair, and Koscielny push on Fabregas), though those pens were unlikely to influence the result
this probably suggests that there is something more than plain bias
the PF data was more telling i think
the Chelsea-Hull game had one reasonable claim for penalty against Hull at 1-0 to Chelsea, but i don’t remember any claims for pens against Chelsea (btw Hull was never in lead in that game, perhaps you meant MU-Hull game?)
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What can you say Shotts, if the engineers resepct for their mean calculations for those lovely sinuous roof curves of the new Arsenal stadium roof had been out by such a high margin, then that roof would probably have been built under ground (or upside down, take your pick).
Unless the builders of our world are all mistaken, all their structures fall down, and Means in mechanics are also just “conspiracy theories”?
R.O.F.L.
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otoh if other top teams are allowed more in the box than Arsenal the data would make perfect sense
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There are a couple of “learned” theses about referee bias in football and I have ploughed through them. The overwhelming evidence, I would go so far as to admit irrefutability, is that referees award far more decisions in favour of home teams than away teams.
Other than that it is all the fine margins of judgement and competence.
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My friend Anicoll knows we are both professionals and nothing damages a professional reputation than the suggestion that people like us are concealing data to prove a point. I already said they were never a consistently top-four team and I eliminated them from the analysis. Furthermore their data did not prove or disprove my thesis. As the data below indicates, I could have fulminated and whinged like many who like a Gooner-Spurs fracas by focussing on them having less PAs compared to Arsenal in the 2nd-10 years despite being a markedly inferior team for most of these years. But I remain convinced AFC’s disparity with LFC makes the point.
THFC Penalties:
1st -10 years 42 (total) 4.2 (avg)
2nd -10 years 44 (total) 4.4 (avg)
Mark Twain was remarkable for his insight into human nature and his observation about the ease to which people are fooled and their almost rabid desire to not admit it.
This is hopefully my last comment in support of my findings. One of the tests of the usefulness of this data is the extent to which the referees uphold legitimate penalty calls in favor “smaller” teams in the run-in. The data of the past 10 years suggests their chances are either slim or none.
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Atkinson vs Chelsea…..great, remember Untold,coming up with some pretty damning stats on how well Chelsea were doing, at least at the time under him. We shall see.
Some interesting and worrying numbers Shotta…..conceding quite a few pens this season as well, possibly heading into record breaking territory. That percentage figure is mind blowing, even to one that suspects arsenal get a bad deal.
I take your point that any Riley effect is too simplistic, but I would never trust him after game fifty, I cannot imagine why such a poor ref and terrible communicator is head of the PGMOL, I don’t know why there are so few top level refs under him, I am baffled as to why refs are paid fifty grand hush money on retirement, I don’t know why the PGMOL is so secretive and unaccountable, and yes, despite being a top club, a big player, and now a wealthy club in our own right, I don’t get why we seem to do worse than the other big clubs if refs subconsciously gravitate to the big and powerful.
Basically, a game run by FIFA UEFA , awash with illegal bookies dealing in billions over a season, corrupt agents, match fixing proven in other countries, biased media outlets….well, if it is clean at the top level in England, I am beyond amazed. Why would I bother watching a game I rate so lowly, mainly because I support a team and back a manager, that as far as I can tell, has nothing to do with this corruption, a team with a manager and first team coach that were once brave, and maybe still pay the price for helping expose corruption,,in a case that UEFA clearly wanted kept under wraps at the time. And, of course, I love the way Arsenal play football
That said, we have just drawn Sutton away…..what a tie for them!
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Full marks to Shotta! the compiling of his data will have time-consuming.
BUT
From the Memorandum of Association of Professional Game Match Officials Limited, the ultimate owner is the the Football Association Limited (Company No.77797) or any successor undertaking whose objects are substantially similar.
IF, the PGMOL goes belly up.
Human bias, YES, but corporate bias ?
The number of directors was changed from 4 to 5. Each director has 1 vote, the Chairman has no casting vote.
The only members of the Company (PGMOL) are
The Football Association Limited
The Football Premier League Limited and
The Football, League Limited.
Arsenal Football Club Limited is a fully paid up member of all 3 bodies!
Jonathan Moss has taken a dislike to a recently signed Arsenal player. FACT!
PV 14, raised the hackles for some referees, in a way that Roy Keane did not. FACT!
Check the referee against each club, over the seasons – certain players will always be the culprit!
Once again, well done Shotta, you have started a theme.
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I see someone mixed up the hot ball tonight
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When Untold can predict a refs or indeed a team of officials actions before the game it is difficult to argue against the bias.
I cannot logically come to the conclusion that refs are just incompetent when the data ( from different sources) and my own reference of watching football for nearly 50 years suggest’s otherwise.
Oh and while we’re on dodgy organisations four big teams in the cup semi’s this year.
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Very fair Ian – and whenever Jon Moss has the whistle I know the chance of less than 3 points is negligible. Apparently Michael Oliver has the worst points per game ratio in charge of Arsenal games though.
How stupid is that though ? – Oliver is a far better referee than Moss – and I don’t give two hoots what the data says.
Oliver is a better referee than Moss
There – I said it
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Andy, I don’t know why but I read that as a little camp.
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I don’t think this transfer window hysteria/malarkey seems to function any more. It is duller than an undertakers’ conference in Scunthorpe. Who would place a shilling with me on the authorities recognising a change is needed in the next 12 months ?
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Great piece Shotta
The discussion is very interesting too, rigorous, intelligent and civilised. Great stuff. Thanks
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If I knew what a shilling is, I might join you, anicoll. [lol]
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A fascinating read – many thanks to Shotta, and many great comments.
Have to say I feel pretty much done with the debate largely because a) there is clearly some endless debate still to be had (i.e. something just doesn’t look right) and b) either way, meaningful conclusions are unlikely to be reached barring an unlikely or unexpected corruption enquiry.
In other words, I think many are weary of simply going round and round in circles. Whilst hard statistics can raise the question (which Shotta’s articles do, brilliantly) and confirm our doubts, we just don’t have access to the answers in the same concrete way.
So regardless of accidental bias or deliberate corruption, until video technology is adopted we will continue to find grounds for a deep sense of unease and dissatisfaction. And that is likely true of most fans, of most football teams …
As Shotta suggests, the falling away of the tv and attendance numbers tell their own story, to a certain extent. It may be a coincidence but this is the first transfer window in many years where fans can no longer be bothered to get excited or upset with movements in or out, imagined or otherwise.
So many are in danger of lapsing into near-terminal boredom of outcomes we feel, rightly or wrongly, we’ve all seen countless times before.
I truly believe Video Technology will be the greatest thing to happen to the game when it finally arrives as it will be the ultimate leveller and will oblige teams (and refs) to a return to simply playing by the laws of the game. Intelligence as opposed to ‘interpretation’ will return to the sport.
Well, the greatest thing since Wenger, of course.
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Bide you time folks.
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ArsenalAndrew: The issue with refereeing is that the vast majority of football fans and Arsenal fans in particular choose to ignore the critical impact the refs have on the results. They are not even-handed arbiters, they unduly influence results in favor of certain big moneyed teams. What I have done is research and publish the unbiased data which can help measure their impact.
Until technology (video refereeing) is introduced to remove the preponderant bias of PGMO refs towards certain big teams, any objective analyst must weigh this factor in projecting where teams will finish in the PL. Despite my love for Arsenal and my wishful desire for them to go on a run as they did in 97/98, based on the weight of the data I cannot see them overhauling Chelsea at this stage of the season.
As for the “smaller” teams at the bottom of the league, god help them.
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