Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
The above quote would make a very aspiring New Year’s resolution for all Positivists. It is attributable to Mark Twain, the great American writer, who is renown for his pithy but profound observations about the human condition, so much so that they retain as much if not more popularity than they did since he died over one hundred years ago.
When Twain spoke of the difficulty in overcoming stupidity he could well have been speaking about the media coverage of Arsene Wenger and Arsenal Football Club whether by mainstream or social media.
Take the matter of Arsene Wenger’s use and timing of substitutions. At the best of times, even when Arsenal is doing well, the armchair experts ridicule the manager’s predilection for making 70 minute substitutions. Should the substitutions not turn around an adverse situation they are in hog’s heaven posturing how things would have been better if earlier substitutions were made.
To be fair this mindless, counterfactual nonsense has been around for years.
On November 24, 2012, after a nil-all draw with Aston Villa, there was a story by the BBC with the headlines Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger said he did not have to justify his decisions after Gunners fans chanted “you don’t know what you’re doing”
The boss was quite feisty in his response:
“What is the thinking behind the substitution? I will not explain every decision I make,”
“I have managed for 30 years at the top level and I have to convince you [journalists] I can manage the team?”
Substitutions seem to have been an issue that year because earlier in February, the dot com published a major analytical piece by in-house statistician Josh James reporting that:
“…. the total of goals scored by subs during the Wenger era …. 161, from 2,206 substitutions made. That represents 9.9 per cent of all Arsenal goals scored under this manager, and they have come at a rate of one for every 13.7 subs.”
At the time, each of Arsenal’s last three goals had been scored by substitutes, meaning 12 per cent of the team’s total for the season-to-date had come from the bench. Furthermore Wenger was responsible for the best ever season in the club’s history with the use of substitutes in 2005/06, when 20 goals (a sizeable 21 per cent of the season’s total) came from this source (my emphasis).
Yet the nonsense persists to date. The post Man City mourning and finger-pointing by mainstream and social media was replete with examples of poseurs taking a pop at Wenger’s supposedly failed substitutions. Take this quote from the pain in the backside blog:
“There have been countless times where Wenger has waited with a replacement in the wings before it being too late. While I can conjure up many examples, let’s go with one that’s fresh in the memory. Our recent loss against the blue side of Manchester.”
Apart from failing to produce any historical data to back up “countless”, the factual record for the season-to-date completely debunks the statement. As the commentators will infrequently disclose during a match and dare not repeat lest it confirms that the in-house analysts are all taking us the viewers as jackasses (I am looking at you Robbie Earle, Robbie Mustoe and Kyle Martino on NBC), Arsenal has scored more goals in the last 15 minutes of games than any other team in the Premier League, yes within that 20 minute window when Arsene is infamous for making “late” substitutions.
As usual PA readers have the benefit of my research into the unbiased, unemotional data.
| Game by Game Substitutions as of Dec 26, 2016 | |||||||
| Game | No of subs | 1st sub | 2nd sub | 3rd sub | Goals bef 70 | Goals aft 70 | Result |
| 18 | 3 | 71 | 71 | 74 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 17 | 3 | 65 | 75 | 78 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 16 | 3 | 71 | 71 | 88 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 15 | 3 | 25 | 69 | 78 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 14 | 3 | 66 | 87 | 88 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 13 | 3 | 16 | 75 | 76 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12 | 3 | 73 | 80 | 83 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 11 | 3 | 65 | 70 | 71 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 10 | 2 | 71 | 71 | 0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 9 | 3 | 32 | 69 | 79 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 8 | 3 | 67 | 77 | 88 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 7 | 3 | 62 | 62 | 75 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 6 | 3 | 69 | 77 | 89 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 5 | 2 | 67 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 4 | 3 | 68 | 82 | 83 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 3 | 3 | 70 | 70 | 74 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 2 | 3 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 1 | 3 | 59 | 61 | 67 | 2 | 1 | L |
| Total | 61 | 1090 | 1314 | 1269 | 22 | 15 | |
| Avg | 91% | 57 | 73 | 79 | 1.2 | 0.8 | |
Unlike my high school days, when, during experiments required for our science labs, we would manipulate the data to get the results desired by our teachers, I have no fear presenting the cold hard facts.
My first observation is that Wenger is absolutely correct about the importance of the 70th minute mark in not only scoring goals but game-deciding goals at that. Arsenal has lost only one out of 9 games this season when they have scored after the 70th minute. The sole occasion was that mad, frenetic season-opener encounter with Liverpool. In all of the other eight games Arsenal have either gone on to win or draw. In contrast, on at least three occasions this season we have scored the opening goal and not only failed to win but, as should be fresh in our minds from recent events, eventually lost two important fixtures.
The second observation is while goals before the 70 minute mark exceed those after by a ratio of nearly 1.5:1, those 22 goals are being scored at a rate of 1 every 48 minutes while those scored after 70 minutes are happening at a rate 1 every 24 minute. It doesn’t take a mathematical genius to understand that the last 20 minutes of games is the most decisive for goal-scoring and deciding the fate of a match.
Much of the other information generated by the table is secondary to my primary points but some are notable. For example, contrary to the constant carping by the usual suspects, Arsene’s average time for making his first sub is the 61st minute. The 2nd and 3rd subs are generally within the 80 minute window. Additionally, 91% of the time the manager makes all three subs belying the claim by some he makes insufficient use of the resources at hand.
What many of the critics fail to recognize or conveniently ignore is during the barren years, Arsene had a paucity of quality reserves at his disposal to make changes to decisively impact the game. These days the boss can call on Giroud, Ramsey, Chamberlin or Gibbs to make decisive contributions during that critical 20 minute period. But then as humans there is a tendency to recognize change long after it has taken place; the phenomenon of consciousness slowly catching up with changes in nature.
I will conclude by noting that facts and data by themselves rarely cause people to change the opinions they have long held no matter how divorced from reality; false consciousness it is called. In a recent twitter post, the boss himself observed a common allergic reaction to facts:
“We were shit today”
Have you seen the stats?
“Stats lie”
No, they are facts
“Facts lie then.”
Ok.
Positively Arsenal @Blackburngeorge 2:49 PM – 26 Dec 2016
My question to my fellow positivists is how else can we remain calm and serene in our support of this football club without the facts and data as our anchor?
Thank you for your readership and support in 2016.
Positively Arsenal 
Good Morning Shotta.
A very agreeable post.
Something you don’t mention is ‘why’ exactly the Boss has chosen the 70 min mark to bring on his game changing substitution. (I’ve noticed too that other PL managers with a semblance of an iq are copying this now).
While I can’t say I know the boss’s thoughts, perhaps he see’s that the game has played its course by 70 mins. We know that the teams who like the gergenpressig high-tempo style are generally out of puff by 70 mins. For those teams it’s an all or bust equation, grab an against the run of play goal, and hope to hold out and get the Emirates crowd to fail to support the boys in red and white
By the way we have seen entire seasons with Arshavin or Podolski going to waste on the bench as the Un-used sub, simply because the opposition have hacked down enough Arsenal players before 70 mins and forced Arsene’s hand. After reading your analysis I’m beginning to believe the opposition mangers knew exactly what they were doing with their team instructions.
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Mark Twain was much smarter then me!
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Think he’s much smarter than most of us.
Very interesting read, Wenger is one of the most analytical managers going, if he does something with the regularity of his substitutions, it is for a reason.
There is also the factors that in some games (ok cannot back this up statistically!) the likes of Coq and Xhaka are likely to have been given early yellows for breathing within 1.5m of an opponent, if they remain in the wars getting near the end of the game, as they often do, Wenger has to consider taking players in such circumstances off at an optimal time, possibly to avoid a red card……unless the ref happens to be Mr Moss who will have already taken care of that!….ok sorry, cheap shot
A lot to these substitutions, glad to have it backed up that our manager is actually pretty good at it with his 30+ years of experience.
That transcript involving Blackburn George really made me chuckle…..who are these people?
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Shotts you holiday season party pooper!
You did not just demolish the substitutions debate or meme. You have also kindly explained to the reader why the Arsenal athletes don’t kill themselves “pressing” for the first sixty minutes when playing a match three times a week.
When the simple Arsenal tactics upon the football pitch are so deliberately misrepresented season after season by the simple football Experts (the run to the top in Özil’s first season on the back of all those controlled 2-0/2-1 results…etc.) we can understand why people feel the need to comment in places such as this following their observations of this extreme propaganda (also known as PR) directed against the club which may if we are being charitable be understood to be a partial manifestation of the coaching expertise that has led England to success in recent tournaments against the likes of Ecuador, Costa Rica and Iceland. Which articles such as this helpfully dismiss, much obliged Shotts.
Of course people are entitled to opinions upon that record of extremist propaganda, or of the data, or for their individual preference for the observable pgMOB Rules (ok?) variable code which has directly contributed to the aforementioned success for the national team, but that is the record.
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Nice one Shotta. Hope you sent a copy tp Le Groan!
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DC
You mean like the season opener when Liverpool were allowed to take out Ramsey with two early yellows (not called of course. If you are curious about such things afc were, apparently, the Home team..pgMOB Rules Football OK?) in the opening phases which left him crocked and AFC a sub short for the adrenaline charged closing phases of that match, Alexis out of gas and an unused striker who could’ve made a difference as fresh legs in those closing minutes (using the above data as reference)?
That is a good example.
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> not to say that we won’t see AFC ‘pressing’ early on in a match. Arsenal 3 Chelsea 0! Followed by the Ludo match is a good example but that it is hard to do so three times a week.
For me that Chelsea/Ludo week was a good reference.
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A formidable analysis Shotta and please excuse the deliberate misquotation of “Substitute” on Twitter earlier in publicising the piece.
The other general point is we are getting better at dragging late late goals out of games. Whisper it very quietly but teams that manage to keep going to the 94th, 95th and 96th minute tend to get their names on trophies at the end of the season
and “pain in the backside blog” !! Hush – speak not of such foul things
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Excellent stuff, Shotta, well presented and scrupulously annotated data!
There are so many variables in soccer that people choosing to home in on one aspect and have a beef about it, or to ask loaded questions, like ‘when did you stop beating your wife’ or how did you fit such a fat ass into such tight trousers’ really do not bother me frankly – except that, asked by supposedly professional sports journalists, they can be irritatingly asinine simply because they show such a lack of respect for our manager.
But that’s football.
I do not like making judgemental calls about other people, but equally it would be naïve to believe that all fans are cut from the same cloth, so if in doubt, just ask the question ‘what days of the week start with ‘T’s?’ and if the answer is “Today, and Tomorrow” you can safely move on and find someone else to talk to so that the two of you can wax eloquently about the genius of the boss — altho if one of the two were me — you could be making a mistake – I think ‘Today and Tomorrow’ is a faultless response to a tricky question!! [lol]
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People often make the mistake, when something doesn’t go well, of seeing that as proof things would have gone better if something else was done.
I’m guilty of it myself. I also have a tendency to cry ‘substitute’ from half time onwards if we are struggling in any way on the pitch. Utd and City games in particular this year. The danger is thinking you’ve been proved right if bad spell turns into goal against and eventually bad result.
All that’s actually been proved, or rather occurred, is that the game didn’t go as we wanted it to and subs weren’t made until x minute. Logically, if we take a loss as the worst that can happen, it means that things couldn’t have gone worse * and might have gone better if we’d done something differently.
All the same, that’s simply not how it works; the game is a unique event, one-shot deal and alternatives to it don’t exist. But something of that logically sound yet practically meaningless and irrelevant thinking can easily intrude or dominate : ‘if we’d done something different it could have gone better and could not have gone worse’ ** is, ahem, substituted for ‘it would have gone better!’, or even ‘what sort of idiot could fail to do the thing that would have made it go better!!’
You could say it is optimism gone wrong. The belief that there has to be a way, always, to secure what you desire or even need, and avoid what you are desperate to avoid. That seems a bit generous, given some of the reactions we are dealing with but perhaps it’s a case of optimism going wrong a very long time- years, decades- ago.
*they could have, of course.
**though it could have
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I love this one, Shotta. It’s an instance where the question at hand is very close to the data set available – time of substitution to goals scored by substitutes. It requires very little extrapolation. My only quibble: if you are analyzing the time of first substitution (avg 57th min I believe you said), I’d drop the injury forced subs, which I think is skewing your number low. It’s already a small data set, yes, but there are some real outliers in that first column.
I think substitutions illustrate almost better than anything else that Arsene is, like our Shotta, driven by data and not emotion. He has a plan for subs, and he sticks to it, unless forced into an early change. Because the data tells him it’s more likely to result in a goal being scored. Sometimes it doesn’t. But rarely is anything 100%.
Rich, you make some great points. My biggest pet peeve: “if we had only done x, we would have won!” Unknowable.
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This is the state of the WOBs at the minute.
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Gains “He may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot but don’t let that fool you. He really is an idiot.”
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I think I’d rather listen to Shotta beating his statistical drum.
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the average time for first sub on is rather skewed by the 3 first half subs this season, all enforced by injury, there is clearly a difference in an enforced making of a sub and a tactical sub.
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Its as simple as this, Arsene knows when to make subs. we know fuck all and should not concern ourselves with his business.
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adrian clarke pointed out in his half season review that Arsenal start and finish games very well, but we end first half poorly and our worst period in games is the start of the second half, think he said we have let in 5 goals and scored only 1, in early stages of second half – 46-65 minutes.
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I suppose the next step for AFTV is to get a prime time slot on ITV or BBC, both are always on a look out comedy shows, and AFTV script writers are clearly up there with Marks and Gran.
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Shotta, please take a look here https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/measures-central-tendency-mean-mode-median.php
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some of the Arsenal players are a doubt for Sunday’s game, due to flu.
‘WELBECK IS FIT AND HE LOOKS SHARP’
After seven months out with a knee injury, you would expect Danny Welbeck to take some time to get back to anywhere near his best – but Arsène Wenger says he already looks “sharp”.
Welbeck has not played since May 7, but since returning to full training this week he has already impressed the Arsenal manager with his performances at London Colney.
Listen to LIVE audio of the Crystal Palace game
Watch our best goals against the Eagles
Scouting Report: Arsenal v Crystal Palace
“He’s fit, he’s sharp,” Wenger said. “Will I involve him in the short-term or not, or will I play him first in a game with the under-23s? I have not decided yet, but in training he looks quite good.”
Wenger also provided updates on Shkodran Mustafi and Kieran Gibbs, who came off during the Boxing Day victory against West Brom, ahead of Sunday’s game against Crystal Palace.
“I don’t think that Kieran will be available,” the manager said. “He had a knee problem, a kick. He bumped into the knee of his opponent and he has an inflammation. I think it’s a question of days.
“Will he be available for Bournemouth or not? He looks short, but after, for Preston, he should be available.
“Apart from that, Mustafi is fit again and we have one or two uncertainties. We have a few with flu, but everybody else should be available, and of course the long term injuries are not back, but everybody else should be available.”
Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20161230/-welbeck-is-fit-and-he-looks-sharp-#UesZ2t387gtjTC82.99
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Wenger’s doesn’t seem too taken by the Debuchy interview
WENGER ON DEBUCHY, THE OX AND TRANSFERS
Arsène Wenger was asked about Mathieu Debuchy, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Olivier Giroud and more in his press conference ahead of the Crystal Palace game.
Read on for what he had to say about this and the latest transfer rumours ahead of the opening of the January transfer window:
on how big a role Olivier Giroud can play this season…
For me, it’s always a big role because even when he didn’t start the games he had a big impact coming on. Overall, we are a squad where everybody has its moments and it’s down to me to use well the players.
on Mathieu Debuchy’s interview claiming that they hardly speak…
Yes, of course [we are listening to offers for Mathieu in January] but we speak. We have communication with all the players. It’s a little bit a frustrated article from a player who is injured, you know when you are injured you cannot play. When he had the opportunities to play when Bellerin was injured, he got injured. So I cannot do anything about that and I gave him last year the opportunity to go to Bordeaux on loan, but we had nobody coming in for him over the summer period and there are some things that are not true in this article. We never blocked him going to Fiorentina, nor Espanyol. They had no interest in him at all because we checked that, so you have to take this article with a little distance.
on claims Debuchy was blocked from going to Manchester United…
They have never made an offer for him. It’s completely untrue. It’s sometimes surprising to hear things like that.
on Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain being linked with Liverpool…
No. We have all to face a lot of wrong information, you like me, we have to live with that. But we cannot influence that.
on Franck Kessie’s agent saying Arsenal want to sign him…
No [it is not true].
on whether anyone has had a word with Gunnersaurus after the Watford mascot’s
behaviour…
No, not really, no. Let them express their talent! It’s important that the Premier League is creative with the mascots.
on what he thinks the ideal penalty is…
The ideal penalty doesn’t exist. It’s just when the ball touches the net.
on what he encourages his penalty takers to do…
What I encourage is to be as simple as possible. We have seen in some to be neutral, if you look at the European Championship, there were some games where basically only the defenders scored and all the strikers failed because they want to be a bit too complicated. Not flashy necessarily, but to stop your run, look at the keeper and go the other side of the keeper. But if the keeper doesn’t move, you have an uncertainty coming up and indecision… there is nothing worse than that. It’s a difficult exercise. Since I am in football, from Pele to Messi, everybody missed. That means it’s not as easy as it looks and when you get close to the penalty spot the goalkeeper becomes very big and the goal very small.
Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20161230/wenger-on-debuchy-the-ox-and-transfers#AKRbTqELw3jH26AU.99
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the average for 1st sub according to your data is 61, not 57 btw
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long serving duo, Emma Byrne, and Rachel Yankey, have become the latest players to leave the Arsenal Ladies squad.
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Looks like Biggus Sammus has managed to get his head round the quirky & mysterious combo of sport and statistics (most commonly represented by the league table etc.), not surprising for the manager whose catch phrase became “get a re-start!” to his players: time wasting, breaking opponents momentum, set plays and of course the all time favourite wunderwaffe that is the Long Throw.
Big Sam:
“Arsenal have only lost two in 20 – if I had done that I’d be delighted. If they do that again they’ll win the Premier League.”
Fair comment from the big mouth!
I’d be happier with x3 in the L column come seasons end, but I’m not scared of admitting to myself that when your rival opponents get two offside goals in a match involving three goals, the Mike Dean handicap etc. then that will be a tricky task. Four will have to do!
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So:
The average time for a sub is approximately around about the sixty minute mark.
(IBSF)
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With all due respect to Oleg, the lectures in measures of central tendency were all taught to me 40 years ago in my undergraduate years and later in two postgraduate business programs. I am writing a blog for a general audience not trying to impress my readers by my knowledge of statistical science. I have deliberately avoid over complicating things so my readers can get to grips with the essence of the data. Statiscian’s can wrangle about the outliers. That is the purpose of a good blog. There is room for debate. Thanks nevertheless.
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Oleg – Don’t get me wrong. I appreciate any observation about errors in calculation. I will recheck if it’s 57 vs 61 and if necessary do a correction. It doesn’t change the essence of the data, does it?
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Arsene Wenger will have studied all the sports science available to him and deduced the optimum time to make his substitutions. Any blogger saying they know more about this than he does is deluded.
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Shotta, mean is often deceiving (you probably learned that some 40 years ago). If truth is ‘complicating’ then i guess it’s okay to lie for every other media too…
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Oleg – So you think by my presenting the raw data and producing some descriptive statistics for all the world to see is “deceiving”?
As Twain said “never argue with stupid people….”
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Oleg,
Shotta is well able to speak for himself, but for me he puts a lot of time into giving Posts that are interesting and create discussion points for the bloggers on PA.
As someone who routinely uses statistical analysis myself, I find he uses the Arsenal related data extremely well to throw light on sometimes contentious issues, and as this is a football blog, and his work is well respected and enjoyed, the notion of spurious accuracy that you have put forward does nothing to advance the case he makes, which is that those who bleat loudest in dismissing Arsene’s use of substitutes are simply wrong headed.
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Shotta, mean substitution minute is as descriptive as mean body temperature in a hospital in this case.
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There is nothing like statistics to bring out the worst in people
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That was an effort at humour by the way*
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HenryB, this is the second time i dared to check Shottas findings (first one was the article about winning streaks). And the second time i find that the numbers central to the narrative are made up. That and insistence on choosing non-descriptive metrics is suspicious. So just beware.
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“made up” you say? Not mistaken or from a different source?
I’m struggling to find the right words here, so “fuck off” will have to do – for now.
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Oleg is a troll, no question. Over a year in doing this, on almost alloccasions I present the raw data and the statistic. Of the hundreds upon hundreds of data elements and statistical calculations in over a year he has found 2 arithmetical errors which did not change in any way my findings.
Like Twain said “never argue with stupid people they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
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George, well all the other numbers seem to check out and only the one on which the narrative is built is mistaken. Make of that what you will.
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Shotta, calling people stupid trolls when they point out mistakes is not a great way to have discussion, so i will ‘fuck off’. Good luck with whatever you have in mind.
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Readers: As for my errow in the avg time of the 1st sub, I checked my Excel spreadsheet and found I divided by 19 games rather than 18. For some reason I was already thinking of my mid-season review. To be fixed asap.
But according to Oleg, the troll, I am trying to mislead.
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Which is “the number” on which the narrative is based ?
If there was “the number” on which the narrative was based then why would there be any other figures ?
I thought the narrative was an analysis of results, and previous events that led to a plausible conclusion. The analysis is supported by data not determined by it.
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I preferred “fuck off” but ok.
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looks like Emma Byrne might not have taken her release from Arsenal Ladies very well.
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Geez. Now I feel bad about mentioning outliers. Shotta, I hope you don’t think I was trying to Oleg you…
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Shota, calm down!
Oleg, has spotted a mistake in your calculations, bear with him?
Shota, has given a great chunk of his valuable time, to collect this data.
Oleg, your correction is most welcome. Admit to yourself, that the gist and narrative are both worth discussing. Your correction, should have been better melded into the general theme of this discussion?
Shota, your tenacity, is well-rewarded by the general response, with which I concur!
It is Christmas time, so peace to all who visit this site.
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I don’t think name calling and abuse enhances our reputation for calm good sense.
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Hi PG, I seen on your twitter the old Arshavin thing come up again, I laughed when I seen some trying to beat Ozil with Arshavin stats, like Arshavin was some no mark, and not the top level player he certainly was.
It reaffirmed my view that far too many pick and choose at what point of a players career they decide to use as the level to judge them. With Arshavin many have clearly picked the very end of his time at Arsenal, when he was getting on, not as fit as he once was, and not getting the game time he needed. Thank God we don’t see the same criteria used for someone like David Seaman, who by his last season or two was a pale shadow of what he was in his prime, same could be said of Bergkamp, and of course the last hurrah of TH14.
We have the Arshavin syndrome in reverse with the likes of Bergkamp, Vieira, Henry, Lauren, and many many more, who arrived here as a lot different players than the ones we seen in their prime a year or two later. Indeed Bergkamp, Vieira and Henry all had basically flopped in Italy, Lauren was a midfielder when he arrived, not the top class right back he became, others like Ljumberg were unknown, and of course if Pires had come here six or seven years later he would no doubt have been described by some as a ligue 1 nobody, like Koscielny was.
Too many forget the player we signed, and only remember the player they became. Oddly enough this is very prevalent among those who are loath to give Wenger credit for anything. There just might be a correlation between the two facts.
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Steww and others: I get your point about name calling but I am incensed by Oleg’s insinuation that I am trying to mislead my readers after I have taken the pains to collect and present the raw data and do the analysis in a very transparent fashion. As I constantly stress the data has no agenda, no bias. Rather than trying to impress us with a link to theories of central tendency, do as Alabama and point out that that the statistic may be skewed or there is an arithmetical error which either supports or undermines the analysis. Phwww.
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I read this Blog all the time but I hardly respond. But I have to make an exception because this is serious educational quality. Sadly, we know the myths will continue to be perpetrated by the usual suspects. I shall respond with this brilliant piece of writing.
Finally, I notice ‘Orbinho’ recently gave stats on Wenger’s Subs. When you read this, you understand why. They are jumping on the bandwagon without giving credit.
Please continue to educate.
Compliments of the season and Happy New Year in Advance.
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I fear I may have tarnished my reputation for warmth and congeniality.
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