One of the things I dislike most about the Christmas period is that there is far too much football compressed into too little time. It distorts the balance of the race for the title which otherwise has a pleasantly steady momentum. Would the world of athletics stand for it if Mo Farrah, 4,000 metres into a 10,000 metre race, was suddenly expected to negotiate a Takeshi’s Castle obstacle course with a big rubber mallet swinging across the track as he clambered over giant foam doughnuts? I doubt it. Yet we have a similarly ludicrous pile up of matches at a time when the weather and pitches are at their worst and just when everyone would benefit from a little rest.
However we can at least content ourselves that it is only at Christmas, can’t we? Well you’d hope so, but here I am attempting to bash out yet another blog only a couple of days after Andy’s match review of the Stoke match. We seem to be playing every few days even in the build up to the madness of the festive fixture feck up and I fear for the hamstrings and Achilles tendons of all our players as they get twanged like over tightened bow strings.
Tonight the opposition is provided by Everton who showed great early promise under Ronald Koeman this season. That bubble of positivity has burst like an unsightly pimple of late with only one win in their last six matches. Taken over the previous ten fixtures their results have sent them to second from bottom, above only Hull City at the grubby end of the form table. We in sharp contrast sit second only to Chelsea in the rarefied air at that table’s summit.
So a foregone conclusion then? If our resident statistical number cruncher is to be believed then the answer must be yes. After all Shotta pointed out yesterday “AFC is pounding those mid and lower level teams who they are expected to beat instead of dropping points as they did last year”. However, and as I keep pointing out, Positively Arsenal is a broad church and for every fan who hugs the comfort pillow of unbiased data to their heaving bosom there is a superstitious nitwit terrified that the wind might change at any moment.
I fall somewhere between the two stools. Yes the scorelines make satisfactory reading and yes there have been some scintillating moments of pure Arsène Wenger inspired footballing elegance. Success in sport hangs by such slender threads though and should one snap at just the wrong moment we might find ourselves in a much less cosy situation.
In a parallel universe Peter Crouch’s header beats Cech at his near post and the entire complexion of Saturday’s game changes. The ultimate scoreline may look convincing but each match has moments of unpredictability upon which the equilibrium of the apple cart must rest.
I am of course falling into a trap here. One which I decry others for not anticipating and I therefore hold up my hands. I’ve read, for example, that had Cavani not missed the target with such aplomb Paris Saint-Germain would have beaten us comfortably. Our Champion’s League group stage success was, therefore, no more than chimerical and misleading manifestation of good fortune. In short do not read too much into good results as they are structures built on shifting sands.
This is, I’m sorry to say, baloney. The problem with such counterfactual thinking is that we cherry pick the moments we want to change in order to suit or predetermined narrative.
So Peter Crouch scores and it’s 2 – 2. Does that automatically mean the game ends in a draw? Or do we go chasing the winner leave ourselves open at the back and concede to a counter attack? Why only change the story so that particular near miss goes in? Why not bend Alexis’s shot slightly to the right so he scores instead of missing? Why not have their keeper slip and not save one of Theo’s many efforts? I do not hold with any of this ‘a better team would have punished us’ nonsense. Alter one variable and you had just as well alter them all.
History tells us unbeaten runs like winning and losing streaks come to an end. All that matters to us is how the team responds when this happens. Since Southampton interrupted our unbeaten sequence we’ve won every game, scoring twelve goals and only conceding three. No one could ask any more of the players than that. If you cannot be delighted with such a response to disappointment and be filled with excitement at the prospect of more to come then football may not be for you.
One thing all fans do enjoy is a good statistic or two. Thanks to those diligent folk at Everton Results I have discovered that we are the Toffee’s least favourite opponents. No one has spanked them which such regularity in their entire history and in recent times they have only beaten us once in nineteen matches. The most worrying stat in an exhaustive list which must have taken some work to compile is that Everton have never lost a home game played on December 13th.
All right so maybe that doesn’t prove much but I do have a genuine word of caution to the Gung-ho reader. While Everton’s recent results make uncomfortable reading for them, closer examination reveals that it is away from Goodison where they struggle. They may have lost their last four games on the road but at home, excepting an EFL Cup defeat, they remain unbeaten all season.
So, in conclusion, having weighed up the cold, emotionless, Terminator style data and stirred in some curious and tenuous statistics, seasoned with a dash of counterfactual revisionism I conclude that I have no idea what’s going to happen tonight. The question the boys must answer is can they do it on a wet cold night on Merseyside? I don’t see why not, but I don’t expect it to be easy.
If you’re travelling all the way up there then good luck to you, I shall be watching surrounded by snotty tissues amid the steaming fug of Beecham’s Cold and Flu remedy all the time giving off gales of the great smell of Vic’s. So while the journey north may be arduous it will be infinitely preferable to sharing the couch with me.
Positively Arsenal 
Wish you hadn’t found that Dec13th reference Steww. Playing away always brings joy to my heart listening to those wonderful gooner travellers. They outshout the locals more often than not and presumably leave with happy faces to match their supporting talents.
For the rest, wise words. Congrats again and get well soon.
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Thanks gf60 – getting fed up of being poorly now. It was interesting at the start but it has lost its charm now.
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Get well soon Steww!
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Another great picture.
Hopefully the Gunners can illuminate Merseyside with some spectacular fireworks tonight.
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Fine, fine writing although with all these fixtures and your present flirtation with the treatment room I worry more for the tendons and hamstrings of PA’s front two than those of the football team who at least get to rotate on demand.
And a lovely picture for your header, that one is definitely a ‘back of the net’ job.
As for tonight, well, surely they are all potential banana skins now? With outcomes as likely to be determined by the wayward, and (this season at least) often bordering on the unique, re-interpretation of the rules by the referees as anything else.
Luckily, and again probably uniquely, Arsenal have the benefit of ‘Away Advantage’. Unburdened by the unpredictable nature of the sometimes tepid home support, finding expression that swings from impatient groans to simply being ludicrously late arriving or early leaving their seats, an implicit act of mass disrespect, an embarrassment you just don’t get to endure when playing away.
So despite Everton’s interesting home form, I’d make us favourites although our recent injuries might yet swing an unwelcome surprise so it really is anyone’s guess.
And in the event of a defeat or draw, whilst we’d expect the team to bounce right back, how much of the same we can expect from the fans remains, sadly moot.
Either way, should be a tremendous game of football!
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The locals fear the worst I see;
http://toffeeweb.com/season/16-17/news/34069.html
Despite the EFC fans hiding-behind-the-couch attitude I guess Koeman and his players will be desperate to get something out of tonight after game after game of misery. If the results do not alter then Ronald really will be under pressure, and his job far from safe, with the new owner clearly not getting what he believed he paid for. I don’t think Everton can defend to save their lives so it has to be the home side rely on attacking us and disturbing our new centre back combination.
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“Alter one variable and you had just as well alter them all.”
Its odd that the malcontents count every half chance against us as a lucky escape, and al the chances we make, as poor finishing.
Great stuff that Stew, sick bed or not.
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You missed a trick Andy “. I don’t think Everton can defend FOR TOFFEES” ?
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My fingers wavered over the keyboard George ………
Interesting factlet of the day from afcstuff- On this day in 2014: Arsenal recalled Francis Coquelin from his loan spell at Charlton three weeks early to ease injury problems.
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Well, Steww, today’s Post is yet another delightful, gentle stroll through the indulgent imaginings of a hopeful yet cautious fan. Super stuff.
I would be the first to sign up for a footie game extrapolated from the thought processes you employed for an imaginary 10K race featuring Mo Farrah – ‘having to negotiate a Takeshi’s Castle obstacle course with a big rubber mallet swinging across the track as he clambered over giant foam doughnuts in mid-race? Eww – yes, please. Perhaps substituting a set of rubber ducks for the robber mallet! (lol)
As for the possible outcome of tonight’s game, like you, I can never understand those who opine that this game or that is “a sewn on certainty’ or “a foregone conclusion’ for surely the joy (and the misery) of football is its ability to shock fans and pundits alike, because of the near impossibility of accurately, or inaccurately, predicting a final score — or even hazarding a guess as to ‘what team is going to show up, tonight’ – footballers are, when all is said and done, simply human beings with all the frailties and and strengths that affect us all, so its a case of sitting tight, enjoying the beautiful game and treating the result, win or lose, with aplomb, as part of the experience and pleasure of knowing that the next game is not far off and we will either continue winning, or we will cling to the belief that we will definitely win next time!! (lol)
Cheers, Steww
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George, @10:17
I neat line – and we can even forgive you the typo! (lol)
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Steww, you sir are a scholar. I love the metaphor of a cloudy future. Being a sensible man, you refused to fly blind and chose to crunch the numbers as the guide to your destination. The alternative is to surrender to fear, uncertainty and doubt. I can fly with you.
PS: This is a period when AFC title destiny is usually decided as injuries take their toll. I am a little concerned about Mustafi’s hammy. We are now down to Kos and Gabriel with Holding as back-up. I refuse to panic. We have greater depth in this position than in the past. Afterall Barca won many titles with Mascherano as Center-Half. We are a championship level team and must play like one.
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Lovely stuff. So true about those moments of unpredictability and the impact of them. Even extends to things like the draw for cup competitions.
At least I’m pretty sure it does : if we’d finished 2nd instead of 1st, I don’t think that means we’d have got the same draw as the team who did finish second ; it’d mean a whole different universe. Ah, that stuff makes my head hurt.
Safer ground is the game itself. No,actually, that makes my head hurt,too. If any near miss had been a goal, or goal a near miss, the resulting game would have been utterly different. Yes?
Guess it’s a bit above my mental pay grade, but I enjoyed the truth of it being given a rare airing.
I’ve got the idea that the surest sign of a champion team, or a quality a champion team must possess, is the ability to still win the game, more often than not, when… Crouch’s header does go in (or Adam’s penalty). Late wins or draws salvaged, regularly getting an equaliser quite soon after conceding, going behind not meaning you are very likely to lose.
These things have been happening this year. I’ve not yet updated my emotional responses to reflect this. So I’m still all woe if, say, we concede first, or I’m not even entertaining the possibility we can conjure that late equaliser against Utd.
That’s on me. As is paying too much heed to that Southampton game (‘doomed, we were doomed after the first…we can never afford to concede first!)
The good news is the team doesn’t need me to get my act together. So, we’re moderate favourites for tonight; we’ve been showing that strong capacity for turning things around even if we concede; but, like Steww, I’ve no bloody clue what’ll happen tonight. (apart from us not getting a pen and being in grave danger of conceding one)
Nobody does. Nobody can. Form, schmorm, anything can happen.
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Thanks Stew for another fine preview, and thanks too to Shotta for yesterday’s statistical masterclass, which I lacked the time and ability to comment on – i am borderline dyscalculic. So fast have the games come recently that I hadn’t properly realised that Aaron was injured, and don’t know what the matter is, or when and how it happened. All the teams will find the next few weeks difficult (Philip Kerr in his football novel, January Window is really good on the problems of Christmas football) and rogue results are to be expected from everyone. Lets hope ours are less roguish than most.
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Rich is a rising star in our ranks, if you ask me.
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Thanks for the book tip Tim.
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Lot of depth in this squad George. Henry B looks like a fine creative mid too.
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Foreverheady.
That is an interesting tip re Phillip Kerr, as I was unaware he had written a footie book.
I am addicted to his Bernie Gunther series novels which cover the ‘pre – during – and early post WW2’ era. Riveting and highly researched works all of them, altho it is important to read them in strict time order, as some were written out of chronological order or cover two periods with a time line of events covering a number of years.
If you have not come across them before – the above is a good tip – if you have read them…..you will know what I mean. (lol)
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Henry – having read some reviews I’ve just bought the first Gunther book.
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Anyone noticed for the first time in many years the timing going our way where injuries are concerned? Young Hector coming back into contention at precisely the time Gabriel needed to shunt across to the centre, and meanwhile Per is back in training.
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Typical – I love Bernie – and Somerset Maughan eh !
If you fancy something clever and criminal for Christmas I have also just finished The Borrowed by Chan Ho-Kei – top, top notch
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Scintillating Steww.
I’m worried about the officials for tonight. Too many games already for Clatters against Ars. Also, Everton’s Ronnie K Mused horrible “physicality” nattering’s to explain his team’s dismal recent form. Check UA for more detail.
Naturally, I’m still hoping Arsenal will overcome the handicap – avoid oncoming clattering’s, play their football and end the night with a win.
Even more importantly, I sincerely hope that the round of colds, flu and other illnesses presently suffered by folk here on PA – are quickly extinguished.
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I love the way Gabriel came back into the team at right back (a position most Ars central defenders, inc. academy players, fail at), done well, and seems set to continue a run of games – back in his position.
In other words: Spot on Steww. (again).
COYG
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one thing that I noticed over the course of the weekend football, involving the teams in the top 6 of the BPL
Arsenal v Stoke
Leicester v Man City
Chelsea v WBA
Man Utd v Spurs
Liverpool v West Ham
the top six teams all playing, in one case two of them facing other, and varying pts differences between the 6 teams, but one tried and tested old soundbite was only trotted out, as far as I can recall, for one team only, one fixture, and that team was our very own Arsenal FC. the soundbite I refer to is
“Is a must win game”
so pundits, journos and uber bloggers all trotted it out, if Arsenal want to win the league the Stoke game “is a must win game”. I had to check the league table, to see if somehow I’d missed 25 or more of our league fixtures, were we lagging behind and running out of games to close the gap at the top of the table. Mercifully that was not the case, so why did this little soundbite only apply to Arsenal, now I may have missed it, and I very well could have as I only was half listening to the build up to the man u v spurs game, but surely if the “is a must win game” applied to any game over the weekend it had to apply to teams sitting 10pts and 16pts off the leaders, not Arsenal who would go top with a 2 goal win.
And on the subject of “must win games”, again tonight v Everton, is being described as a must win game for Arsenal. I’ve noticed that no club matches arsenal in being only one game away from a crisis according to the media, and despite Wenger only a couple of weeks ago pointing out to them that he knew the destabilizing game they were playing, when he told them after Bellerin signed his new long term contract, that they would have to find another Arsenal star player to link with a move away. And as we all could have guessed they not only found one, they found 2 or if you read the right outlets “up to 10” Arsenal players set to walk away for free in 18 months. Yeah that is right the blink of an eye that is 18 months, again a peculiar timescale for panic creating articles, when the same journos and pundits and bloggers have such a different outlook on the time space continuum that has more than half a season to play, no for Arsenal they have decided that every game is a “must win game”.
For me its clear that the “must win game”, and the “only 18 months left on contract” and lets not forget “its only December”, are all spokes of the same wheel of attack that Arsenal face on a daily basis, I have yet to see a plausible explanation as to why Arsenal above all other clubs have been picked out for this treatment and I don’t think anyone will ever be able to explain why bloggers who claim to love Arsenal partake in this practice too.
So I’m looking forward to tonight’s must win game knowing that if we do win it and go top, its still only December and Arsenal are really in the middle of a crisis, as half our squad will be walking away from the club for free in 18 months time, and we unlike every other club have no succession plan to replace our manager.
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“One game away from a crisis” eddy !
Arsenal are the only club “one goal away from a crisis”
as the hysterics on social media and among mainstream commentators demonstrates week after week.
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yes Rantetta, I noticed too how like other managers before him, just as they are about to face Arsenal, are out in the media telling the world that their team has lacked physicality and they must add it to their game if they are to put things right. No doubt the journos and pundits will echo their sentiments, and then we will see the ref turn a blind eye to the “smash him out of the game” type tactics as advised by Rio Ferdinand only last week.
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Lovely put down by Pep – I had to larf;
https://twitter.com/jonnysmiffy/status/808676521053487104
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I was talking to my brother last night about how much better we are with a confident Iwobi in the side. I don’t think any team, let alone Everton, can live with us if Iwobi, Walcott, Mesut and Sanchez are firing on all cylinders.
With regard to tonight’s game, Everton always turns up against us. I wouldn’t put it past them to have been shitty for the past month only to play like Brazil 70 tonight. Xhaka v Barry is going to be a fun battle to watch.
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Quite a prediction from Stan Collymore. I expect City to at least qualify for the CL and be a lot better equipped for next season. To say Pep is going back to Spain with his tail between his legs is some really absurd shit.
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reports from France that Giroud and Coquelin have signed new afc contracts.
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Thank you, Steww, get well soon!
Andy, ruined my toffeeweb spoiler?
As for Steww, Everton have never played Arsenal in any year from 1890-1891, on December 13th, so there. AND, that was before the Arsenal, joined the Football League.
A prophesy from Toffeeweb, –
Ian McDowell
39 Posted 13/12/2016 at 11:50:58
Arsenal were very impressive in their destruction of West Ham last week. Saying that, West Ham went to Anfield and got a point that no-one expected them to get.
Funny old game, football.
Only certainty tonight is that Giroud scores a header.
Now Stew, enjoy you new author, whom, I have never heard of! Not for Stew, a sip from the “water of life”, is guaranteed to cure any cold. The “water of life” must be distilled from an illegal cairn!
COTG and COTB, against Liverpool!
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HarlemGOONtrotters @CKerrJones 6h6 hours ago
Everton are unbeaten at home this season. Worth bearing in mind before we declare this an easy game
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Get French Football @GFFN 5h5 hours ago
Breaking | Arsenal have reached contract extension agreements with Olivier Giroud (until 2019) and Francis Coquelin (until 2021), per RMC.
Get French Football@GFFN
Laurent Koscielny is in advanced contract negotiations with Arsenal about extending until 2020. (RMC)
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Edu
Your 2;02 & 08:
I “Like”.
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Everton @Everton 12m12 minutes ago
Everton XI to face @Arsenal: Stekelenburg, Coleman, Baines, Jagielka, Williams, Gana, McCarthy, Lennon, Valencia, Barkley, Lukaku. #EFC
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seeing as TH14 has been belittling another one of our players, this might be the right time to read this article again
http://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/why-thierry-henry-should-never-be-arsenals-manager
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I had another look at Toffeeweb and the content is hugely gloomy NOTH. One man admits he will start the game behind the sofa, another could not resist a bet on a 3-0 Arsenal win at 16/1 (not very generous). One poignant comment about the parity of the clubs in 86/87 and the total disparity 30 years later.
Good blog
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so much for the FA being all set to hand down a points deduction on Chelsea for their 5th offence of failing to control their players, another laughable fine is the punishment for both them and man city, chump change, they must be laughing their heads off the the lack of gumption in the fa.
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excellent Steww, COYG
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Reference Toffeeweb, it’s interesting to see PASHUN being discussed as the missing ingredient. Seems such an alien concept to us after so many years of careful, intelligent, studious stewardship doesn’t it?
Yet there are fans on that forum who would happily have stomached the bad results they’ve had if only their manager jumped up and down a bit. Utterly bizarre.
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mccarthy leaves one on xhaka and clattenburg lets it go.
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one left on ozil also let go by clattenburg.
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ozil has unusually put in two poor attempted through balls, or crossfield passes, hit both straight to an everton cb
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last few minutes everton have ten men behind the ball, and all eleven in their own half.
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Sanchez with a sneaky one there – good lad Clatters
Arsenal like a big ginger tom that has a mouse under its paw at the moment
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Look how Everton smashed Coq from behind. Then Clatters just gives a throw in
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jagielka booked for hacking down coquelin on edge of the area after coq won the ball and was going round the everton defender.
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Ashley Williams deserved a red there – shocking challenge
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williams assaulted one of his own teammates there
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