Post Chelsea, in his usual wise manner the manager observed there is only 24-hours to savor a victory, even over a historic rival, after which it is time to focus on the hard work of winning the next game. See interview at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fN7btWOQJ3g
In contrast with Arsene, now that Arsenal is on a 5 game unbeaten run of 4 wins and 1 draw, even seasoned Black Scarfists are trying to locate a seat on the bandwagon rapidly filling-up at various way stations.
Intuitively, as supporters we are happy with a winning streak. But Saturday’s victory have sparked the usual over exuberant headlines and tweets.
Bleacher report could hardly contain themselves:
Chelsea Have Become a Fugazi, and Being Humiliated by Arsenal Proves It
Our good colleagues at Suburban Gooners, like so many of us, crowed that:
Arsenal are getting their swagger back
Those of us, who are seasoned supporters of Arsenal Football Club and observers of the ebb and flow of emotion among fans, know that often this show of support is simply a desire to not to appear irrelevant while the team is winning. Once there is the inevitable setback, all teeth will be bared and the attack dogs will be let loose all over Wenger and the club in direct contradiction to the underlying trends.
So does a 5 game unbeaten streak suggest we are in anyway close to winning the title? As usual it is important to review the underlying historical data, never afraid to recognize that: “In the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair. Just data.”
As in the stock market, when there is an increase in the share price of a company there are usually thousands of punters piling-in further bidding up the prices in the hope the market will soar upward infinitely, a similar pattern is observed when a football team is on a good run. Such is the reaction of our fickle, celebrity fans like Piers.This piling-in, in the words of my mentors, is often a case of “unjustifiable” sensationalism based on irrational expectations.
To counter such irrational emotions, my task is to research the historical data to help reveal where exactly Arsenal is positioned. Hopefully you my readers will draw the appropriate conclusions. Fortunately for us http://www.statto.com maintains several years of data on “Season Longest Win Streak” in the PL which we can apply to AFC. As usual I divide the data between the Highbury and Emirates eras.
Highbury Years
| W | D | L | CS | FtS | Lge Pos | |
| 1996-97 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 1997-98 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 1998-99 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 1999-00 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2000-01 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 2001-02 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 2002-03 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 2003-04 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2004-05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| 2005-06 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Min | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Max | 13 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 3 | |
| Mean | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
In their pomp at at Highbury, during Arsene’s winning years, the club would go on some statistically significant winning streaks, i.e. they were substantially above the mean averages in Wins 
. The 2001-02 season, in particular, Arsenal went on a rampage of 13 Wins out of 16 games which was marred by only 2 draws and 1 loss. By doing so they clearly separated the men from the boys.
During that era it is evident that Draws (D), Losses (L), Clean Sheets (CS) and Failed to Score (FtS) data did not seem to have any statistical significance in winning the title so long as they were kept on or around the mean average. Even the 2003-04 season, which was important for serving up zero (0) losses all season, during our best 12-game stretch Arsenal could only maintain two (2) Clean Sheets. Remember that fact when this season you read or hear pundits, bloggers and podcasters panicking when opponents occasionally breach Arsenal’s defense and score a goal. While it is important to keep clean sheets, the championship years demonstrated it is more critical to be on the front-foot and amass those Wins. Worrying about Clean Sheets is just another case of “unjustified” sensationalism which helps to induce fear among Arsenal fans.
Compare and contrast Highbury with the barren championship years at the Emirates.
| Emirate Years | ||||||
| W | D | L | CS | FtS | Lge Pos | |
| 2006-07 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2007-08 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2008-09 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 2009-10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 2010-11 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 2011-12 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 2012-13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2013-14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 2014-15 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2015-16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Min | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Max | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Mean | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
Not surprisingly the various metrics for longest winning streak are inferior to the Highbury years. Interestingly, in those years when the club exceeded the 10-year average of 6-Wins in a streak, i.e. in 2007-08 and 2014-15, they were good value for coming 3rd. In contrast, even though Arsenal came 2nd last season, it is clear and apparent why this generated very little excitement among many fans; in its best winning streak the club could only amass a below average 5 Wins in comparison to a 10-year average of 6-Ws.
The biggest takeaway from the data of the last 10 years at the Emirates has been the Club’s inability to achieve an above-average run of Wins, of similar magnitude to 10, 13 and 9 which characterized the title-winning years of 1997-98, 2001-02 and 2003-04 respectively. Until the current squad can reach those heights, unlike the opportunistic Mr. Morgan, we at Positively Arsenal should curb the over-exuberance and keep the champagne on ice.
Positively Arsenal 
BOOOOOooooo!!
We’re going to win the league this year.
Seriously though. We all know this. It’s just such a long way to go. The desire to condemn after the first game of the season (actually before that because we were losing the transfer market apparently) and the desire to crown us champions elect now is as idiotic as crowning City and Pep champions at this stage, including talk of them going unbeaten. I mean, come on. Yet people do it, and seem to derive pleasure from this up and down, swing and roundabout way of support. Maybe this induces a sort of euphoria like being on a rollercoaster?
I don’t know. All I know is that it’s fun to watch Arsenal play, and it is even more fun on days like Saturday. And I believe there will be more of those sorts of days for Arsenal in the future.
Oh and City were lucky to beat Swansea. That was a ridiculous penalty call. The season is long (and full of terrors?) I just sense that Arsene and Arsenal are up for the challenge.
Sorry about all the ‘belief’ and ‘sensing’. I lack the data and the patience to mine it. Which is why I turn to your articles.
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Thanks for the top work Shotta,always interesting to have lots of data to mull over, and I like the feet on the ground approach you have, soon we will be hitting the murky days and night of autumn,which will give all teams another dilemma to deal with-and there are no easy points for AFC because everyone wants to win against Arsenal.
If AW can keep them from getting their heads down, then who knows? Certainly Saturdays game was a bench mark performance.
Thanks again.
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I suppose if you go on an average 5/6 game winning streak, then it being the first 5 or 6 games makes it look exceptional, when its actually average?
Like MCFC?
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Thank you Shotta. I must confess the clean sheet obsession is one of mine. Not because I’m frightened of conceding a goal but more I suspect because when I played I was a defender and so a clean sheet is a bit of a holy grail for me.
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For the simple minded, me in this case, could you explain the tables Shotts ? Or anyone else who can put me out of my misery !
I understand wining streak, where we win a sequence of consecutive games, and I understand undefeated run, where we win and draw games. What are the columns of losing games in the tables above ?
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Thanks Shotta and thanks too for the great weekend posts and comments. I’m looking forward to seeing the highlights and also Adrian Clarke’s breakdown later today. Can anyone fill me in on how our two major loanees got on over the weekend? And am I justified in thinking there has been a slightly underwhelming response to Theo’s goal which to my eyes looked as good a team goal as you could hope for.
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Andy, the table shows the longest winning streaks and losing streaks in each season.. I think.
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Ah – got it
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Comical Wenger he was called when he said “I think we can go unbeaten all season”, the thought of it was so outlandish, so unlikely, so impossible, it had only ever been done once before in the history of the English game, and when the following season his team did it, it should have been seen for what it most likely was, a once in a hundred years happening, but no the very same journos, pundits, media in general who branded the very idea of an unbeaten league season as “comical”, now season after season proclaim one big spending team or another as being set for an unbeaten season. Now for me they do this cos it eats them up that Arsenal done it, and they need it done again to devalue our achievement, the hate is real.
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Good Morning Positivistas worldwide. Yes Andy Nic, George is right. The Statto data has longest winning and losing streaks. A streak may be inclusive of the occasional Loss or Draw. The only year on record without a Loss in during a winning streak was in 2003-04, that is why Mr Wenger is an Invincible, never forget. Although I described the data labels in the tables, for clarity sake I will list them below:
Wins
Draws (D)
Losses (L)
Clean Sheets (CS)
Failed to Score (FtS)
Final League Position (Lge Pos)
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Positively Arsenal @Blackburngeorge 12h12 hours ago Blackburn, England
Ok, I was wrong about Coyle, O’neil, Redknapp,Laudrup,Monk,Bilic and many more, but Tuchel is the one, This time I’m sure.
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George, city actually played 4 of those games against bottom five clubs and still managed to concede in each of them
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not on the same PED’s as last season, maybe.
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More good stuff. There’s probably fewer of those giant win streaks (10 or so) among title-winning teams than I imagine.
Still…it feels like something very closely associated/correlated with winning titles. I have fading memories of us going on those runs and I also have less pleasant memories of Utd doing it a number of times.
I’m sure a few of you may have noticed my, erm, anti-pgmol stance by now, so can’t resist adding that if our treatment from refs did deteriorate badly around ten years ago, then that would have a serious impact on our ability to put together long unbeaten or especially winning runs.
Just this year, when I believe we are getting much fairer treatment, it’s pretty chilling to think how easily we could have lost at Leicester, drawn with Saints and who knows what in a couple of the other games, where the penalties and even a first half red hath flowed.
Just look at Riley’s performance to end the great unbeaten run.
Now, if Dean, Taylor or Atkinson put in a normalish performance when they finally appear, it might be time to get carried away a bit.
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Arsenal have taken young Scottish goalkeeper Alex Crean on trial
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FREEDOM
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Love it Shotta, great stats.
Today is the day were supposed to find out the extent of Francis injury let’s all pray for
Le Coq
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eduardo, the scan is interesting, but they mention Sanchez instead of Mesut…
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Excellent Shotts.
Like me and a fair few others who have looked at league tables over the years a glance at the L column last Xmas (before the trip to see Riley on the South Coast) did not encourage the offering of the shortest odds on AFC for the run in.
There are only so many L’s a team can afford and the old maxim or cliche used to declare that 5 or 6 L’s is the the maximum that any title winner can afford. Which is why the opening day defeat was a non-emotive blow, and the subsequent recovery to date has been impressive without the need for any hyperbole.
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< conclusion: on to the next football match.
Looking forward to it.
Hopefully there'll be time to watch a few re-runs of the opening 45minutes from Saturday during the week.
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Think it was Zimpaul who tried to refresh petioles minds free of the inter-clutter of click bait & worse, and broke it down, back to basics etc.
– First, have a look at the L column.
– Next, use the GD columns as a guide for form. So clean sheets are of a secondary
Etc.
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< clean sheets are of secondary importance. Helpful, confidence building etc but not as important as the old L column! Seems obvious I know but we've been blessed with so many Experts of late…
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Great post Shotta and interesting stats. I have no stats to support it but I would suspect it’s harder for teams to go on 10+ game winning runs given the quality of teams in the PL now with all the money sloshing about.
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Don’t know if anyone has already posted news Le Coq should only be out for two weeks thank God for that, and I’m an atheist.
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If that is right Ian I’m bloody delighted – it looked much more serious in a ligamenty sort of way – I remember RvP going out for 6-8 weeks with a very similar early season bang against Blackburn where his leg was caught by the ball/player
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no confirmation on how long Coquelin will be out for, all the reports about it being only two weeks are based on a L’EQUIPE report earlier today.
Wenger will be doing his press call tomorrow, so there should be some sort of official update from it.
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It’s could be an Arsenal medical 2 weeks. He won’t be back until after the next international break, and he should really have been selected for France based on his recent performances.
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Am I misunderstanding something?
Shotta’s stats must relate to form across all competitions during a season.
Therefore Arsenal have one draw, four wins in the league, one CL draw, one LC win.
Unbeaten in 7 in a row for the season, the only blip was having a raw back line on the opening day.
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is there something happening with big fat big fat sam
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dc the table in the article does not include this seasons stats, and its only for league results
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Got it now!
Other news: PSG bad boy Serge Aurier has been sentenced to 2 months jail for saluting a police officer outside a Paris nightclub. He may stil be a availaable to play for PSG because he is appealing the sentence.
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Looks like Big Sam has been caught in a sting by the Telegraph.
Who did they want as England manager?
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Serge Aurier isn’t he the guy the malcontents raved about us not signing after the game in Paris, wasn’t it all, we fucking signed shit Debuchy instead of this brilliant player.
never mind that in his short career with PSG he has been banned twice by them, one for tweets about the manager, other for homophobic tweets, and now he is facing a jail term. Yeah that is the sort of guy we should be spending our millions on. There mustn’t be these sort of scenarios on FM.
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The telegraph must have wanted harry or rosie
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GeorgeWeahsCousin @WeahsCousin 33m33 minutes ago
“Im not homophobic, look at my CD collection. You’ll find Queen, George Michael, Pet Shop Boys. They’re all bummers”
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Shotta, thanks.
I’ll read again in the morn. Meanwhile, we’re talking about an invincible streak of articles, if I may so say.
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Fins – I remember the late, great ZimPaul trying to talk commonsense to the confusionists who did everything to “confound” his logic that it is the Ls that kill a club, not the Ds.
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http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20160926/the-breakdown-arsenal-v-chelsea
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For any who have not picked it a very positive interview with Theo in today’s Guardian;
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/sep/27/arsenal-theo-walcott-attitude-centre-forward
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I am afraid this length of meeting suggests they are arguing about money and Fat Sam has luckily escaped from having his liver pecked out each day as England manager – cunning bastard.
Fancy setting up a fake sheikh scam – and the FA fell for it.
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The Ravel Morrison story carried the rumour that he refused to sign up with Biggus Sammus’ favourite special agents?
The old Revie wannabe’s greatest achievement for English (& Nigerian) Football will have been the arrival of a young Iwobi at the Arsenal as an indirect possibly accidental consequence of his generous benevolence.
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The old fake Sheikh scam eh?
It could be curtains for Sammus Maximus then.
Geddit?
I’ll get my coat.
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Good link A5. Theo has been a monster this season contrary to the predictions of the uber bloggers and tweeters. A player grows via positive reinforcement not by the negative destructive criticism. 14 tackles alone last Saturday, according to Adrian Clarke, topping all on the field. Who would have thunk that?
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TEAM NEWS: LATEST ON COQUELIN AND GIROUD
Arsène Wenger has revealed the latest team news ahead of our Champions League Group A clash against Basel at Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night.
The boss gave an update on Francis Coquelin, and this is what he had to say:
on Coquelin’s injury…
He is out for the game tomorrow, but it should be a short-term injury because the scan was quite positive and I think it will be three weeks out.
on how he feels about the news…
It’s positive because last year during this period we got some bad news and a few long-term injuries and it was a handicap in our season. After you play always the same players and you lose a little bit of your edge physically. The fact is we have a compact squad, but of top quality, so to keep everybody together is a big plus.
on Giroud’s injury…
He is not available, he is suspended because he was sent off at PSG. He is a doubt for Sunday, we will see.
on if he will go on international duty…
I don’t know, it depends on the evolution of his injury.
Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20160927/team-news-latest-on-coquelin-and-giroud#7L0lkIpG5kegckLm.99
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http://www.101greatgoals.com/top-stories/hilarious-james-corden-becomes-arsenals-manager-one-day-video/
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Kaveh Solhekol @SkyKaveh 9h9 hours ago
Another high-profile manager says he was approached by Allardyce Telegraph sting team. Walked out of meeting. At least 10 managers targeted
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Congratulations to the English Football Association- led by the nose – hilarious
God forbid anyone would work for such a spineless employer
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alex meier @BundesLlew 7h7 hours ago
Spurs’ under-19s have truly Spursed it. Equalised in 92nd minute away to CSKA, lost it in the 94th minute.
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IF, reports are true, a former Manchester United player, set up the meeting for the “sting”. The DT versus Sam Allardyce.
Scott McGarvey,. scored his first goal for the senior team in a 2 – 0 win against Spurs. Back in April 1982, and an example of young players, not achieving their full potential.
Where the “Ginger Harry Secombe” or Mark Curtis, is connected is unclear. According to well-informed sources in West Ham United FC, Curtis takes 5% from the annual salaries of his clients at that club. Andy Carroll, has apparently a new agent.
Andy Carroll, leads to Peter Harrison, who leads to the BBC exposure of Craig Allardyce.
It could not have happened to a more fitting “dupe”!
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