Disclaimer: Despite the headlines this blog is not your usual piece of transfer bollocks. You have been warned.
Markets
It may be news to young football fans but the modern transfer market is barely 13 years old when the transfer window was first introduced to English football by FIFA in 2003/04. Yes, the concept of a football transfer existed in England for more than 100 years when the Football Association (FA) introduced player registration sometime after 1885. But for most of the intervening years there was really no “free” market for the services of a footballer. It is a historical fact that sometime after the Football League was formed in 1888, the owners decided that restrictions had to be placed on the ability of richer clubs to lure players from other clubs to prevent the league being dominated by a handful of clubs. From the start of the 1893–94 season onwards, once a player was registered with a Football League club, they could not be registered with any other club, even in subsequent seasons, without the permission of the club he was registered with.
The transfer system remained unchanged until the Bosman ruling in 1995. The case for ending Football League-type restrictions on player transfers was brought to court by Jean-Marc Bosman, a former Belgian footballer who in 1990 was registered with Belgian club RFC Liège. His contract had expired and he was looking to move to French team Dunkerque, but Dunkerque refused to pay the transfer fee of £500,000 that Liège were asking for. Bosman was left in limbo and his wages were cut by 75% due to him not playing. After a lengthy legal battle, he won his case when the European Court of Justice ruled that players should legally be free to move when their contract expired.
The point of the preceding historical overview is to remind my readers that the existence of a transfer market and the window is a very recent phenomenon with little in the way of repetitive historical data on which to establish some trading rules. Complicating things even further is the current transfer market does not function year-round. Trading is artificially restricted to the transfer window; i.e. two months in summer and one month in winter. No wonder there are such huge distortions in the demand and supply mechanism and ultimately in prices.
Despite the relative youth of the transfer market, it is important for us Arsenal fans and others to understand its driving forces to avoid being manipulated by the various market participants as well as to better understand the moves made by Arsene and the club. In my last blog I shared with you the role of Greed and Despair as the two primary emotional drivers in the stock market which are equally evident during the transfer window. I emphasized that in in both markets the full-time professionals will consistently exploit and profit from these emotions.
Why the stock market as a frame of reference? Because it is the oldest and biggest market place in the world where the public (individuals, speculators, investors, and institutions) compete to make money. Stock trading of some sort has been around since the middle of the 16th century. But the modern stock exchange was first officially formed in London in 1773, 19 years before the New York Stock Exchange which eventually became the pre-eminent stock market by the 19th century paralleling the rise of New York as the centre of world commerce and finance. Despite repetitive bubbles and crashes, malfeasance and scandals, stock markets continue to exist and grow in size. At the close of 2012, the size of the world stock market (total market capitalization) was about US$55 trillion. By country, the largest market was the United States (about 34%), followed by Japan (about 6%) and the United Kingdom (about 6%).
Irrational Behavior
Due to their long history as well as the money at stake, stock markets have been studied to death by academics and professionals aiming to identify trends and behaviours which are repetitive and predictable. One such repetitive feature that is absolutely comparable to the transfer market is the irrational behaviour by many of the participants. Many of you may recall in the late nineties the mantra of “irrational exuberance” by former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan to describe the behaviour of investors running up stock prices during the dot.com bubble which eventually went splat.
It seems to me the very definition of irrational behaviour is Manchester United’s who sold Pogba to Juventus for £500k and four years later repurchased him for an eye watering £89.25m according to TransferMkt.com. As the highest valued transfer ever by United, it is reasonable to assume that during his five year contract he will be earning top wages at United, at least comparable with the £300k per week reportedly earned by Rooney. Added to this expensive acquisition are the transfers of Mkhitarayan (£35.7m) and Bailly (£32.3m) with wages to match. Ibrahimovic was acquire on a free but nobody doubts that he is earning top whack given his celebrity status worldwide.
Meanwhile their noisy neighbours City refuse to be outdone, splashing lavishly on Stones (£47.3m), Sane (£42.5m), Gabriel Jesus (£27.2m), Gündogan (£22.9m), Bravo (£15.3m), Nolito (£15.3m) and a few more in single digits. It is commonly known that City pay top-top wages in the league and apparently out of favour players like Yaya Toure, Samir Nasri and Eliaquim Mangala are difficult to move on because interested clubs cannot match their contractual compensation. This is a prime example of a club obligated to pay premium salaries of once big signings now surplus to requirements.
It is widely known that contrarians will constantly outperform the prevailing market sentiment during market extremes. In our case during the transfer window Arsene Wenger consistently exploits and profits from the irrational behavior of City, United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs et al. This is despite thousands of mainstream media articles, blogs and tweets that Arsenal is being left behind. Arsene refuses to buy high and sell low. He waits until the opportunity develops to get superior value at relatively lower market prices than his competitors. Once the timing is right, usually towards the end of the window, he moves in for the kill (Cazorla, Alexis and now Lucas Perez come to mind).
Herzfeld and Drach (“H and D”) in High-Return, Low-Risk Investment explains that the reason for this irrational behaviour goes much deeper than people reacting to extremes (e.g. when Arsenal go on a bad run) or to the media brainwashing us to believe that transfers are the key to success (when there is ample evidence to the contrary). I will briefly touch on these underlying reasons in the hope that it may help us cope with the repetitive nonsense that prevails during the transfer window.
1. Psychological Gratification
People like to be liked. Being with the crowd is much easier psychologically than being against If everyone is doing the same thing, there is a feeling of camaraderie. (I experience this on Twitter everyday. If the big accounts are slagging Wenger for “dithering” in the transfer market then it is par for the course for the vast majority while those of us who decry the nonsense and point to Wenger’s consistent 20-year success in the window are treated as lepers). This bonding however reduces clear recognition of the risks inherent in the crowd’s behaviour, leading to major losses when crowds ignore reality. Crowd followers are lemmings. Buying and selling players in the transfer market is not a team sport; there are winners and losers with millions at stake.
2. Short-Term Illusion
When a dramatic price event occurs and becomes the centre of attention, seemingly logical reason to justify the price change accompany the sensationalism. The reasoning baits the trap. Usually a major price move has occurred before the sensationalism , the move itself created the sensationalism. The end result is monies are attracted (through supply/demand) to aggravate the price change. If the price move is up, the sensationalism will attract buyers (demand) and push prices higher. If the price move is down, the sensationalism will attract sellers (supply) and push prices lower. H and D note that anyone with experience with the investing public knows that those who get involved with after-the-fact sensationalism tend to repeat their behaviour even though they repeatedly lose (Man United I am looking at you).
Translate the above to the transfer market: The tendency at the beginning of the window is to push prices higher. The big monied teams like PSG, Barca, and Madrid usually storm out of the blocks in their greed to get the best asset on the market. The media and blogs sensationally justify the high prices as the going “market rate” with no reference to quality (e.g. see most of the recent blogs by the Sage of Dublin). There is the usual round of sensational media reports in England and from Europe justifying higher prices and United, City, Chelsea are lured in to pay hand-over-fist for less than top-top quality players. In a year or two many of these high priced transfers prove to be a bust. Meanwhile a measured long-term player like Arsenal will wait until the end of the window to pick up usually young, promising talent on the cheap at reasonable prices whom it can develop as world class players. Fabregas, Van Persie are examples and it is likely Bellerin and Gnabry will follow this route. Just as an aside, in my opinion, if Diaby did not suffer that horrific assault on his ankles in that last game of his first year he would have been a great-great player in the class of Fabregas and Van Persie.
3. Justified sensationalism
H and D note that automatically ignoring (or taking positions directly opposite) prevailing sensationalism can be a mistake. There are positions when the sensationalism is correct, the price movement is justified and the price direction is very likely to continue. Thus in 2007-2008 when the run on Lehman Brothers became apparent and Bear Sterns was being shut down and investors began to bail from firms holding dodgy mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. It would have been right to go with the flow. The important thing is to use common sense to differentiate between justified and unjustified sensationalism. The easiest example in the last ten years of unjustified sensationalism has been the yearly pre-season prognostications by the vast majority of pundits in the commercial media that Arsenal will fall out of the top-four because it failed to spend like its big rivals. They consistently fail to educate the public that Arsenal is a self-sustaining club that could never match United or the sugar-daddy clubs in spending, it would simply go bankrupt. Similarly they consistently under report the role of Arsene Wenger as a genius of a manager who despite lesser resources has consistently outperformed his big spending rivals.
Playing a Blinder
I am going to take the unusual role of saying the club has recognized an element of justifiable sensationalism among the fans this summer and responded by playing this transfer window brilliantly. They, I am sure, are keenly aware of the desire of the supporters to see the club actually compete for the title, knowing full well that finishing 10 points behind Leicester last year has left embers of discontent that can be easily become a conflagration in the hands of the usual pyromaniacs. The early acquisition of Xhaka and Holding as well as the bid for Vardy was a signal of serious intent. As Wenger said early in the window we need to score some more goals and defend even better. As I write the acquisition of Mustafi and Lucas Perez is all but finalized.
In my opinion Lucas could be the final piece of the puzzle; an experienced, aggressive, speedy forward who can score goals and assist. The last time Wenger brought such a predator was in 2007 with the acquisition of Eduardo from Shakhtar Donetsk who was then described as a “striker with lightning speed and a poacher’s instinct in front of goal.” Dudu only scored 12 goals from 22 starts in his first season at the Arsenal, eight of them in the PL, but he was starting to flourish amid the hustle and bustle of English football until Martin “Tiny” Taylor’s challenge left him with a broken leg and dislocated ankle. Up to that point in time, together with Adebayor leading the line, we were on a title-winning run, 5 points atop the table. If Lucas, in his first season, can in anyway duplicate Eduardo’s performances, he together with Walcott, Sanchez and Giroud being fed by Ozil and Xakha, could help us score the goals badly needed during the harsh winter months, when title challenges are made or broken. If he does, we could be in with a shout by the beginning of May.
In closing, I thought Arsene and Ivan would have executed their transfer strategy down to the wire. Instead our summer business is done and dusted by August 29th. Too bad for Sky, BT, ESPN and the BBC, the sensationalists. Leave it to our friend Mel to express my sentiments in his inimitable style:
Positively Arsenal 
dubgooner @goonerdub 1h1 hour ago
Maybe we should sell Jack for a nominal fee and then sign him back in a few years for £150m. Isn’t that what a club with ambition does?
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Shard you have more patience then many of us!
As you are no doubt aware it’s hard to find this “AKB” construct anywhere, I’ve yet to meet a person who believes football managers don’t make mistakes in every game (same as every player – whether we can spot those errors is another matter haha) and that’s all fairly normal and uncontroversial. Therefore they’ve had to invent this whole AKB vs WOB meme in order to attempt to dress this skeleton with a bad posture with some flimsy skin. It makes them feel better demanding that their club acts in a particular and prescribed manner in order to express their own individuality (in Mob format of course IBSF).
We just want to talk about the Football…
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I’m more akb than AKB – Arsene demonstrably knows more than me therefore must be in a better position to make decisions and take actions he sees fit. He is not infallible and makes errors as does every manager, player and (whispers quietly) referee.
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Yup and some appear to make less biased errors then others! According to the data, and we can consequently predict competent performances from them. Dickie Bird would be crowing.
Before our last Home match with our official from the weekend friends asked for the ‘Refwatch’ preview summary and so I said: “Mr. Friend is more friendly then some of the others on the roster. Which probably explains why we are lucky to have him twice in a season.” He had a better game then if i’d been in the middle that day. Or some other transparent charlatan like Micky D.
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Looks like Andy Nic’s account’s been hacked – referees making mistakes? Don’t believe it!!
Wonderful article Shotta, terrific background (and from Eddy) and just a great all round read.
Thanks (both).
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#ContrarianAlert: Arsenal conclude their transfer business by August 28th. As of August 29th the sensationalist media starts reporting rumors of Jack and Serge going on loan or transferred. Any facts? Any data? Knowing what we know about the media and the transfer market I would counsel scepticism. Don’t let them fool you.
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Ryan @RyanTomes 10h10 hours ago
Stuart Pearce thinks Arsenal should loan Jack Wilshere to TOTTENHAM!!!!! 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
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Middlesbrough FC @Boro 9m9 minutes ago
CONFIRMED | @CalumChambers95 has joined the club from @Arsenal – http://bit.ly/2c66uIW #UTB
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Osman @OsmanZtheGooner 19m19 minutes ago
Gnabry transfer to Bremen Done. 4 year deal. A fee of €5m + bonuses. He has a release clause in his contract (BILD)
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jeez arsenal disrespected both lucas perez and depertivo la crouna, they actually paid his release clause of £17M, and not £25M or more just to get it done, you’d almost think that this is how release clauses work, but we all know its not, as arsenal fucked up the suarez deal by offering his release clause.
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Mesut Özil @MesutOzil1088 33m33 minutes ago
The next German Gunner! 👍😉 I’m very glad to be able to finally say: Welome @MustafiOfficial to @Arsenal! 😎⚽ #YaGunnersYa #AFC #COYG
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Welcome Perez and Mustafi.
At the beginning of the summer, Ivan suggested the club would target a defender, midfielder and striker. Despite much angst from within the WOB, the club have delivered..for the first team, and players for the future in similar positions.
If Jack does go on loan, good luck to him, let’s hope he comes back ready to step back in.
Gnabry……a strange one…..no position available or does Wenger just not rate him? Thought the club could have got more….unless there are lucrative future add ins.
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Mustafi, Xhaka, Lucas, – one interesting aspect about their careers so far, all 3 of them have played in several countries already, which should at least make it a little easier for them to settle here.
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Petit like the rest of them, never actually let the facts get in the way at having a pop at Arsenal
Emmanuel Petit on SFR Sport: ‘Why hasn’t Wenger opened door to Henry, Bergkamp, Vieira, Adams? Patrick is totally sickened by #AFC & Wenger’
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To lose one favourite player is a misfortune: two carelessness. Three a personal tragedy. Farewell then Jack, Tomas and Serge and may your gods go with you.
I’m not quite stopping all the clocks but feeling a bit empty right now.
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he actually looks a little like per, a shorter version… mustafi
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Tom WilliamsVerified account
@tomwfootball Tom Williams Retweeted Equipe de France
Moussa Sissoko given permission to leave France camp to complete transfer. Doesn’t say where he’s going though…
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Yes Shotta, thanks for another excellent article.
I’ve gotten extraordinary pleasure from reading this.
IDibs, I’m glad to read that your daughter is recovering.
There were more people wearing Arsenal shirts at carnival than for any other team.
The “3rd” shirt looked better than I expected.
Happy Arsenal everybody.
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Thanks Rantetta.
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Tim a season on the south coast could do the job for Jack and complete his return to top level conditioning and consequently confidence and sharpness, he looked so good at the end of the previous season but another season kicking heels means it has been nearly two years since he’s had consistent exposure at the top level. The manager looks sharp, they play great football. Win win. Not forgetting the extra protection he’ll receive there, no need for failed winky things Jack’s own comments on what to expect as an AFC player have long been upon the record (sweet FA protection for those ankles).
Yup. A very smart move. Robinson on Diaby or Gardener on Fabregas, the equivalent on Jack and he could easily follow through path and pattern of those mentioned above (of course that is not forgetting more obvious hacks to others).
He should return just in time for the ascension of St. Cazorla. Seems to be that someone, somewhere, might just have some kind of a plan. What are the odds?
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Apart of me felt a little guilty in describing Mangala as a flagrant Mendezian Mule shortly after his arrival on these shores for a piss taking number for an unproven CB. Every player deserves a chance right?
Sure, but that also does not mean that one should therefore ignore an obvious scam artist at work when it’s staring one in the proverbial Arsenal, in such circumstances it is quite proper to fire all batteries.
It is, what it is.
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All these ITKs.
All these 24/7 sports broadcasters. All these journalists. How many of them had the capacity to state the obvious with these Mendezian Mules.
Shotta there’s a great line from the movie / book The Damned United where the Derby manager tells Brian Clough before he sacked him that the “money men” were taking over football. This is an alleged account of a conversation that may or may not have happened. What we do know is that Clough got sacked and went on to achieve immortality with lowly Forest.
Fast forward fourty odd years and the only place you’ll find criticism of the dodgy geezers operating in the game like Risdale and those who support them like Scudamore is in works of such fiction.
With such an omertà is any surprise that the average fans has been conditioned into accepting debt peonage as the path to salvation?
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Fins: Debt peonage indeed. The businessmen who once owned and run Arsenal Football Club, some of them being bankers, seemed set on avoiding being over-leveraged by debt. Stan Kroenke has studiously followed their path. Maybe that is the key to Danny Fitzman death-bed commitment to ensuring his beloved club fell into the right hands. Meanwhile the feckless fans look wistfully at United as they sink deeper and deeper into the hands of the leeches of Wall Street. There will be a reckoning, sooner or later.
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BBC reporting that Jack Wilshere undergoing medical at Bournemouth, as Arsenal refused to let him join Roma, due to how Roma behaved when Arsenal tried to sign Manolas earlier in the summer.
So Manolas and Vardy were targets, and we moved on to sign Mustafi and Lucas instead. I’m ok with that.
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FourFourTweet @FourFourTweet 2h2 hours ago
Hired Jose
Sacked Jose
Signed Matic
Sold Matic
Signed Luiz
Hired Jose
Signed Matic
Sold Luiz
Sacked Jose
Signed Luiz
The Chelsea way.
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Colchester United FCVerified account@ColU_Official
#ColU are pleased to welcome @Arsenal midfielder Glen Kamara on loan until January! #DeadlineDay
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Osman @OsmanZtheGooner 2h2 hours ago
Arsenal’s Kelechi Nwakali joins MVV Maastricht on loan. 2nd AFC player to be loaned to the Dutch side after O’Conner earlier in the summer
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Germany @DFB_Team_EN 20m20 minutes ago
YEEESSSS!!! @MesutOzil1088’s assists are so good they sometimes go straight in! ⚽️ #ServusBasti #GERFIN 2-0
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My 2p worth
I dislike footballers who whinge and whine and twist to engineer a move out of our, or any club, because it is to their financial advantage. Seems to me about 90% of them, and I would be a hypocrite to avoid the point that most who join us do so for the exceptional wage lift, whether they end up performing well, average or shite.
Any player who agitates for a move to get on a football pitch and kick a ball about ? Never found one that irritated me.
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chris sutton really does not like arsenal or arsene wenger
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Good to see Samir Nasri seems to have joined a football club where he can see out the seasons he has left #plucky
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Leeds United wanted to sign Yaya Sanogo but Arsenal rejected their approach. Wenger wants him to stay (@LeeSobotYEP)
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The1971JB @The1971JB 1h1 hour ago Port St Lucie, FL
David Luiz has commanded transfer fees of £88m in two years. Between the same clubs. Almost like money-laundering really….
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seemingly Chelsea have over 30 players out on loan
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Seems the Spuds have just signed a major Arsenal fan.
Hope they are more gentle on him than they were George Graham
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The Queen of Suburbia turned out to be a bloke.But tbf, he could still have been a queen. Lets not be judgmental,
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So unless I’ve missed the news, then two very interesting things about Arsenal’s summer transfer dealings are who we loaned out and who we did not, what does it mean for those loaned out, what does it mean for some not loaned out.
Loaned out
Szczesny
Wilshere
Chambers
Campbell
Toral
Kamara
Moore
O’Connor
Pleguezuelo
Huddart
Crowley
Well my feeling is that we are unlikely to see many of these 11 guys play a competitive game for Arsenal again.
I think of those more established on this list, that Chambers has the best chance of still having a long term future at Arsenal, and there are major doubts even over that. Last season he started 2 BPL games, despite all our injury problems and fatigue.
With Roma claiming that they have a buy out clause in the Szczesny loan, I sadly think that is him done for here.
Wilshere’s loan has nothing but questions for me, it seems we have no recall option, and I think this may be telling. Jack made his AFC debut 8 years ago, and has really only had one injury free season, where he played in 35 of our BPL games, but that was followed up by an entire season out, no game in any competition. His last two season has seen him start 9 and 1 BPL games, and now he is loaned out again. When I first seen the news that he was going out on loan, I was sure it would be a short term loan with a recall option, such as Ramsey and Coquelin had, and which we availed of. But Jack it seems has no recall option, and for me this is telling. Jack is versatile, and can play right across all the midfield roles, but even with a couple of his positional rivals already picking up injuries, he is deemed surplus to requirements, and no recall option suggest it may remain that way.
Campbell is off on his 5th loan in 5 seasons, I believe he has no future here, he had his moments last season, but as some on here will know, I always viewed him as 5th or 6th choice in the team, and only our injury woes seen him get game time, and for me is being so totally one footed, it left him too predictable and limited.
All the young lads have a chance of course, although Kamara was unimpressive when out on loan at Southend last season.
Toral had a great loan stint at Brum last season, it will be interesting to see how he get on back home in Spain.
Crowley has great ability, and is on his second loan deal and its unusual for us to loan out a lad so young twice already – he turned 19 a few weeks ago.
O’Connor, also 19 is on his second loan, so again he might still be viewed as having the big potential he showed to get his first team debut at 17.
Pleguezuelo has been impressive for our reserves and youths for a few years now, without getting a sniff of first team football, his lack of size for a CB may be the reason, and this loan deal is a chance for him to show he can handle senior football.
Moore was actually close to the first team squad two years ago, but he missed nearly all of last season with injuries, so this loan move is a chance for him to push his way back into contention at AFC. He can play both RB and LB, and with question marks over some of the understudies for those positions this could be his chance to move up the pecking order.
Huddart faces a hard fight to get to the AFC first team, its not often young keepers get into a big clubs starting 11, and as we know, goalies mature later, so if he is to make it here, it still may be many a year off yet.
For all of them I would not rule out the notions that we are using the loan system in the manner Chelsea are, to raise the value of the player for when we do sell them.
Not loaned out – at least some of these were expected to be loaned out
Debuchy
Sanogo
Zelalem
Akpom
Willock
Maitland-Niles
Debuchy was a prime target for a loan deal, but with Jenkinson out injured for a while more, and Chambers going out on loan, we needed MD here as cover for Bellerin, this may chance come January, especially if Jenks is back.
Sanogo, this is an interesting one, I know the malcontents like to make a laugh of him, but for me there is a real talent there, injures as is the bane of so many at Arsenal, is a real problem, he has been injured this summer. Leeds were one of the clubs that tried hard to sign him in the last few days, and interestingly AFC said no. Does this suggest he will still get a chance here. I have no problem if he does, after all it was his introduction in the FAC final v Hull that really helped put us on top and caused havoc, as he often does,
Akpom had another impressive pre-season, a goal a game, he done well last season at Hull and his performances were often better than his goal return. Many felt once we signed Lucas Perez that Chuba would be off on loan, but it seems he may be given till January to train with the first team and try and force his way into the match day squad.
Zelalem had a great time helping Rangers win promotion last season, and several clubs tried for this highly talented lad this summer, and it is a bit of a surprise that he was not loaned out, but maybe like Akpom, its been decided that training with the first team till January will be more benefit to him, and that we can make a decision about loaning him then.
Willock has been spoken of highly by Wenger over the summer, he has mentioned that he may be close to getting a go in the first team, although that may only be in the league cup. The talent is undoubted, but he is of slight build, and many felt that he needed to be tested in mens first team football, but maybe he is not yet strong enough to be thrown in at the deep end, and a more reserved approach is correct. By the way, Chris’s older brother Matthew was at AFC at schoolboy level, but moved to man utd, and his younger brother Joe is impressing with the Arsenal u18’s, a real football family.
Maitland-Niles, he of the mad mother. A wonderfully talented lad, versatile, and like some of the lads who were loaned out, he was loaned out to Ipswich last season despite him still being an U18 player. His mother, like she did here, caused a bit of a fuss, which did not go down well with Mick McCarthy, but he still wanted to take the lad back on loan this season and its a bit of a surprise that he did not go. when Campbell was loaned out, many thought Gnabry would be the lad to step up and take his place in the squad, then with him going Willock is being mentioned, but maybe, just maybe AMN is the man who will be the one to force his way in, he is more man able and battled hardened.
Maybe the reason why we did not loan out more, is simply cos we only have so many players, and with the u21 grade now an u23 grade, we need to keep lads for it so that we are competitive, we have so far lost 3 from 3, and having put so much effort to get to division 1, we don’t want to end up relegated this season.
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Ryan @RyanTomes 4h4 hours ago
Hey @johncrossmirror
Incase anyone hasn’t reminded you yet, you didn’t get a single Arsenal transfer right this summer.
Journalist.
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Chelsea and Man City have loaned out over 60 players this season, CFC have loaned out 38.
http://www.espnfc.com/english-premier-league/23/blog/post/2941416/how-premier-league-big-clubs-stockpiling-and-loans-impacts-transfer-market
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for once an interesting interview on AFTV, with football agent John Smith. He says Arsenal do have a director of football, that is Dick Law’s role at the club.
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an interesting aspect of the transfer window was that the academy did not sign any players, it might suggest that Hale End is producing enough of the quality of player we want
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Jeorge Bird @jeorgebird 22m22 minutes ago
Arsenal midfielder Robbie Burton has been called up to the Wales U19 squad. Just 16. Excellent passer.
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Chuba Akpom has been called up to the England U21 squad
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Thanks Eduardo for that thought out and careful analysis.
I wonder if the Wilshere loan is a bit more pointed than just a case of him getting some game time? When I look at it it seems as if its more a question of seeing if he really is the player you might build a team round. You would hope that if he avoids being crocked again he might become the central figure in the Bournemouth side – and if he can do that to good effect for a whole season then Arsenal might think him a natural heir to Cazorla. And if he can’t, then they will know that he is no longer worth persevering with. I see it as a kind of extended trial, which although harsh is also fair. And good luck to him with it, for it would be wonderful to see that talent flower.
One name that Ed might have mentioned which I feel significant is Jeff Reine-Adleaide. No 31 in our squad, firmly and proudly displayed among the midfielders on the official site, although the rubric suggests he is as much a winger as a midfielder (have these two roles become of equal importance now?). I wonder what the thinking is with regard to him – and how much the presence of players like him and Iwobi plays a role in determining what transfer business is done with regard to both ins and outs.
My feeling with the current squad is that it looks more robust and less frail than was the case last season: there seems more of a heft about the players somehow and I wonder if we will see that translate into the way we play.
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well foreverheady I would think that Jeff and Iwobi will have be part of the consideration of letting Jack and Joel leave, Iwobi’s emergence for me is the biggest factor in seeing joel let go, it put jc down the pecking order, and with ox and theo both in there too, and not forgetting alexis, we are well stocked in wide players, jeff of course too can play wide, but for much of last season he had been deployed in CM and more and more was showing a bit of the Diaby about him, the same ball control, the same looping running style, the same direct runs. Wenger has mentioned him and Willock as two lads really pushing towards the first team. If we don’t get many injuries then it may be only fleeting, but as with Iwobi, if these lads do perform well when they get in, then there is no reason to assume that they won’t be given more of a chance.
this is the players, including youths, that I think we are most likely to see used in the first team this season
GK – Cech, Ospina, Martinez
RB – Bellerin, Debuchy, Jenkinson
LB – Monreal, Gibbs
CB – Koscielny, Mustafi, Mertesacker, Holding, Gabriel, Bielik
M – Xhaka, Ramsey, Coqeulin, Cazorla, Elneny, Reine-Adelaide, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ozil, Zelalem, Maitland-Niles
F – Alexis, Giroud, Walcott, Lucas, Welbeck, Iwobi, Akpom, Sanogo, Willock, Mavadidi
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everyone fit on form and i think our first choice team and subs would be
Cech
Bellerin Mustafi Koscielnly Monreal
Xhaka Ramsey
Walcott Ozil Alexis
Giroud
subs: Ospina, Mertesacker, Gibbs, Cazorla, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lucas, Welbeck
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It was nice to see Chuba welcoming Jack last night.
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