A Myth is quite simply “a widely held but false belief or idea.”
Positivistas, how many of you, like me, first daily instinct during the transfer window is to reach for whatever internet device is at hand to check if there is any new transfer story affecting our great club? Yup, I see many of you shaking your heads in agreement. But I know there is an unrepentant few who are reacting with disgust to such heresy, appalled that there is a majority who weakly submit to the twice yearly season of rumor-mongering, click-baiting and outright lying by all segments of the sporting media.
Despite my admiration for those of us who can resist the temptation to not religiously scan twitter and the lying mainstream media for transfer news, the fact is the buying and selling of players has a powerful hold over many supporters and cannot be ignored. Even yours truly was briefly caught-up in the madness last weekend after EuroSport-France proclaimed boldly that Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez decides to join Arsenal, €50m move close. So much so I became a member of scouting twitterati hanging onto every ball Mahrez kicked in Leicester’s friendly with Celtics that Saturday morning (EST). Predictably, nothing came of the transfer. Less than one-week later it became apparent this was a big con-job by either Mahrez or his agent to get a big wage increase from Leicester, using the same leverage as his team-mate Jaime Vardy; i.e. being publicly linked with Arsenal. Lesson learnt anybody?
So why does transfers have such a big hold on our thinking despite clear and repetitive evidence that transfers are no guarantee to footballing success? Is it because the facts are not compelling? How more compelling can that major 2013 study by Nick Harris of Sporting Intelligence for the Arsenal Supporters Trust, of all the people, when he provided 13 years of data to come to the conclusion that:
“Wenger is telling the truth when he speaks, often, about wanting value in the transfer market, and wanting to buy players when they are better than he already has. Because he knows, from that 2005-06 season, and from the following season and a few others, that all business is not necessarily good business. And too much business can have a negative impact on the team, if selection becomes too ‘unstable’, which we can show, in a general sense, for Arsenal and key rivals, is a bad thing.”
He ranked the ‘big six’ in the Premier League in order of their total net spending on transfers plus wages combined between 2000 and 2012 over the 13 years in question. Chelsea spent most, with £2.078 billion, then Man Utd on £1.43bn, then City with £1.4bn, then Liverpool with £1.3bn then Arsenal with £1.1bn and Spurs on £777 million.
Chelsea did not do better than their resources in any year, under-performing against their wage bill eight times and doing only as well as expected four times.
United did better seven times, worse three times and as well as expected twice.
Manchester City performed better once: when finishing ninth in 2002-03 when wages said they should have finished 10th. They have otherwise under-performed apart from the title-winning season when they did as well as expected.
Liverpool did better than expected four times in the period, worse four times and as expected four times.
ARSENAL out-performed their wage spending seven times, did as well as expected three times, and under-performed in 2005-06 and 2006-07. We’ll come back to that – but it’s better than any rival.
Tottenham did better than their wage bill six times – and worse six times, in the period under review.
Nothing since 2013 in the PL has changed from my observation. To the contrary Harris’ findings have been reinforced by the dramatic results of the last season. At the end of the 2015 summer window the following was the top-ranking spenders vs eventual league position:
| CLUB | £MILLION | POSITION |
| Man City | 88.06 | 3rd |
| Liverpool | 77.02 | 8th |
| Man United | 68.95 | 5th |
| Villa | 45.43 | 20th |
| Chelsea | 40.60 | 10th |
| Newcastle | 39.80 | 18th |
| Southampton | 23.80 | 6th |
| West Brom | 22.75 | 15th |
| Leicester | 21.84 | 1st |
| Crystal Palace | 16.73 | 14th |
| Arsenal | 9.80 | 2nd |
Despite Leicester breaking conventional wisdom and proving that one can win the League without breaking transfer records, the usual suspects have been screaming murder and throwing childish tantrums because Ivan Gazidis recently used two major media opportunities to pour cold-water on expectations that the club will “show ambition” in the transfer market. The latest was an interview with no less than the New York Times when he stated:
“We would not be successful if we simply went out into the transfer market and tried to outgun our competitors. We’re run in a self-sustaining way, and a way that we believe in, because we believe it gives us certainty for the future, and enables us to plan our future with confidence. That means we can’t afford to make huge mistakes in the transfer market. We can’t afford to outgun competitors that have far more money to splurge on transfer fees than we do. So we have to be very careful, very selective about how we do things.”
My fellow blogger and friend Stew Black has dismissed this statement as simply “public relations” but I would suggest that for the CEO of the club to make similar statements within a week to both ESPN and the Times, major media outlets in their own right, is a significant message to the fans and other key constituencies. Gazidis was fully aware that there was a major kerfuffle after his initial round of cold water. Even Wenger was forced to comment after the Lens game that the CEO was not ruling out a big transfer if the right player became available. Less than one week later Gazidis repeated the same mantra almost word for word. Outside of Stan this is the voice of the Board of Directors, we ignore him at our peril.
So despite the compelling weight of facts and figures and the admonishments of the CEO, bloggers and tweeters continue to believe that the club is showing no ambition or that Wenger is dithering in the transfer market. It would seem to me that if the club does not find the right player, many are in for a rude awakening.
Sooner or later myths must confront reality.
Positively Arsenal 
It’s funny how we read things from particular positions. When I read Ivan’s comments my reaction was entirely positive, so full of common sense was it. And I was genuinely amazed when it caused a meltdown. Much the same happened with the Kalstrom interview: I found it delightful and affirmative, while for others it occasioned derisory anger. So I now begin to wonder the point of these pronouncements if they will be read in such differing ways.
Is it a lack of understanding? A failure to understand the future conditional? A limited vocabulary? And are these restrictions determined by upbringing and education? Or does it go beyond words? But it does seem to me a dangerous situation if a substantial number of the club’s support are positioned so far from the management’s way of doing things.
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Good Stuff, Shotta.
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Good read
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The problem with public pronouncements is people take what they want from them and ignore the rest.
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Great stuff Shotta, timing wasn’t bad too with the news that Vardy never even spoke with AFC. Fascinating.
Why is it that the AST never refer to this report that they themselves commissioned (& paid for) and have instead tried their best (not very good) to ignore that content whilst acting as sycophants to such great football writes such as Rory Smith and Alan Partridge?
As for Mahrez, what I failed to imply clearly in my comment last week was that although he’s a good player he doesn’t seem to be better the a number of talents at AFC (older then some, no broken limbs in the past etc.).
Every summer the media troll the fans and every summer they fall for it: remember
people ****ing themselves off at every available opportunity repeating the meme they’d been told say:”only five first team defenders”, and that was the season Bellerin broke through. What can we do but laugh at the madness, for that is what it is, on display. Nevermind the football, what happens on the pitch does no longer matters hence the consistency of these sado-masochistic spectacles.
There are clear and consistent attacks on arsenal football club and the inability of the super fans and those who know better to state the blindingly obvious tells us more about them then it tells us about the club.
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“But it does seem to me a dangerous situation if a substantial number of the club’s support are positioned so far from the management’s way of doing things.”
After watching Robbie Fowler destroy Arsenal one evening at Highbury I did think of protesting against Danny Fizman and his blood diamonds. Against Modern Football hehehe. Standing on the steps of Highbury I realised that I could be doing more productive things with my time and I went and got some chips instead. I didn’t take some of the club’s money, comission a report in order to attack the club, and then have to ignore said report when it didn’t match my fetid requirements (chip butty was much cheaper and far more satisfying).
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There’s little new in what Gazidis has said this summer. You can find much the same reasoning from him probably every summer since he joined. It all makes perfect sense but in the context of the lunacy that football can be it seems out of step with the fantasy that many will indulge in. There isn’t a team in the land that isn’t always ‘just 2 or 3 world class players’ away from success according to many of their supporters.
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All very interesting stuff. I also found Ivan’s words encouraging, especially his emphasis on evolving things behind the scenes, I am sure there are always improvements to be made in scouting, the youth/academy set up….and sports science. Also happen to thing Ivan’s words were twisted by those with an agenda, as becomes clear when you read the original transcript vs what has been reported.
Despite the rantings of the angry, in 2016, the club have bought in two excellent centre mids, a promising looking defender, and the Japanese striker who I confess to knowing very little about. And, they are spending a reported twenty million on behind the scenes improvements……….the tightwads!
I am pretty sure we will see a new defender and probably some sort of attacking player by windows close, maybe even a departure or two, but the deals that would mean the most to me at the moment would be Alexis and Ozil signing on for a while longer.
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Good morning Shotts and a good read as we ease ourselves back into training towards the big kick off of the 14th. I believe Arsenal are on the look out for a player or two. I believe the club has a reasonable sum of money with which to complete a deal, or deals, should the opportunity arise. That is all I believe. That is all I wish to or need to believe.
The close season for club football is an increasingly short window and relentlessly interrupted by the desperate fantasies of football journos who have nothing real to write about, and bloggers equally determined that their click count will be maintained through the parched Summer and the advertising pennies drip on them.
The reality is between 15th May and 14th August 2016 there was/is almost nothing going on in football that is worth more than a postage stamp worth of coverage that journos or uber-bloggers actually “know” about, in terms of having any verifiable facts and figures. Fantasy breeds on fairy tale, reinforcing nonsense, regurgitating gibberish and endlessly picking over and manipulating every word spoken by the likes of Gazidis to create a convenient and story worthy angle.
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Good article Shotta. Too many wasted hours over the years convinced me that Arsenal.com is the only place to read about transfers. Give me Kim Kalstrom’s interview any day, but not x, yand z are joining.
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I fuckin’ loved that Shotta, another masterpiece…..
I think this excellent piece by Kim Källström reinforces the genius of Arséne Wenger too….
https://m.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/4v5yo5/interesting_quotes_from_arsenal_exloanee_kim/
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Nice one Shotts,no one quite does transfer outrage like the online Arsenal mob,and the media know that. Red and white fish in a barrel,pretty sure we’ll end up signing another 2 or 3 players before the deadline as well as a couple of our talented youngsters getting a chance.
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foreverheady you ask “is it a lack of understanding” that causes such different reactions over things like Ivan’s interview. I would say that the uber bloggers and twitteratti superfans, understand 100% what Ivan is saying, and they understand 100% that there is absolutely nothing to cause anger in it, but they know they will 100% gain more followers, more clicks, more “fame”(laughably that is what they see it as), if they spout fake outrage. Its as clear as day follows night, you only have to see how they are now once again ganging up on anyone on twitter who points out the game they are playing. How they are not acting like “supporters” at all. you even have them now trying to tell us that it is AKB’s as they like to call them, who will turn on the next manager, and not those with a track record of not only turning on our manger, but on all things arsenal.
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I mentioned on the previous thread, claims by ArsenalFanTv’s Robbie, that he spoke to Ivan Gazidis, and had an interview request declined, cos Ivan said his New York Times interview last week had been so badly distorted and misrepresented in the English media and on arsenal blog world. For me its clear Ivan knows the games that are being played by the media and our uber bloggers.
Ivan assured Robbie, that Arsenal “know what we need, and are getting it done”.
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That’s good stuff, Shotta. I too read Ivan’s interview and thought “oh, well, that’s pretty reasonable, let’s see how the braying hordes twist this.” I didn’t have to wait long. It’s just so much noise, now. I find I’m happier if I just ignore as much as possible.
Not long now. Some of our Euro heroes report tomorrow (Aaron! Yay!), and before we know it we’ll have something real to talk about. I miss you guys over the summer.
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“for the CEO of the club to make similar statements within a week to both ESPN and the Times, major media outlets in their own right, is a significant message to the fans and other key constituencies. ”
That’s a pretty good definition of PR Shotts, glad you agreed with me.
😉
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https://m.soundcloud.com/world-football-index/wfi-tactics
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Nice one Steww. Consistency, a very scarce commodity.
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Ivan Gazidis, will never do a Alan Sugar v Terry Venables court case! Bungs galore.
Ivan Gazidis, will never, ever call Terry Venables a “shark”, as a certain Chairman, described Mr Venables.
Ivan Gazidis, will never be Deadly, as the Chairman weighed in on David O’Leary , as a manager!
Ivan Gazidis, is neither David Sullivan (Sully), nor David Gold. Ivan, will never tell us, if a certain player’s agent, is taking 5% of the player’s salary each year!
Our Ivan, is a slick operator who speaks “business”. Checking Ivan in the early years, I realised that £10 millions was a fortune to our Ivan! Check out Ivan (in his first full year) and Ken’s expenses, we can gauge the expenses of the first team squad?
As for transfers, a “locums” for Danny and Per! Perhaps a permanent for Per and Kos?
The Arsenal, are not and never will be Manchester United. No class, no scruples, for the last 30 years!
COTG
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Wenger on Ivan Gazidis:
“Believe me he is highly motivated to bring players in. Sometimes I have to calm him down.”
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so is any of you guys going to watch the Arsenal game tonight, kick off is 2am. I’m thinking of watching it, and as tomorrow is a bank holiday here in Ireland, I can take a lie in tomorrow morning.
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Eduardo: The game is 9:00 pm my time. Very convenient.
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Arsenal wearing the third kit tonight
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well shotta all I can say is that this game at 2am and the last one at 1am have given me even more appreciation of our fans across the world who have to deal with this sort of time difference all the time on AFC games, not true fans my arse, the “local” mafia have not got a clue what it is to be real supporters
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Well done Shotta.
I couldn’t find a word at fault in any of uncle Ivan’s pronouncements.
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Arsenal have to keep their transfer business under wraps, otherwise we would lose in a bidding war against one of the morally corrupt clubs.
Eden Hazard is a recent example.
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d_c: Interesting that people on twitter think we are still in for Mahrez based on the flimsiest of evidence. I remain sceptical until proven othewise.
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cech and wilshere not in the squad
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Cazorla captain tonight
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ozil is at the game
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29 minutes gone, Arsenal second best so far, midfield not in the game so far, ox and iwobi seeing little of the ball.
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Holding with an awful pass straight to an attacker, opsina makes a good save
chivas very much on top
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32 minutes – xhaka with a fine pass, theo with a shot from a tight angle, keeper palms it away
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33 minutes – cazorla wins a free kick, takes it himself, long right to left diagonal ball, chambers knocks it back into six yard box, Holding taps home, his first goal for Arsenal.
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35 mintues, monreal to walcott, keeper makes a great save
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36 minutes – Holding calls for Ospina to come and take a through ball, but he waits, and then gets a boot into the face when he does come.
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39 minutes – ox with a good run, but he shoots straight at the keeper, maybe should have passed to one of two team mates on his left
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41 minutes – good build up play, but cazorla’s cross was too close to the keeper, who intercepts it
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43 minutes – chambers claims he should have had a penalty, after being flung to the ground at a corner
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45 minutes – cazorla showboating near his own area, crowd love it
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HT: Chivas 0-1 Arsenal
chivas well on top for half an hour, Arsenal scored what looked like a training ground set piece and have been well on top since.
Midfield found it very tough to get control up till the half hour mark, ox and iwobi were not in the game, xhaka seems to be being man marked, coquelin full of energy and tackles. Cazorla with his usual quick feet, but not in the game enough. walcott doing a lot of running, and has had a couple of shots that the keeper did very well to save. Holding with one awful pass that set up a chivas shot on goal, but he has scored our goal, assisted by chambers who has had a fine game, for me our best player so far. Bellerin and Monreal have not ventured forward much.
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Campbell and Akpom on for the second half, and the combine to create a chance, but akpom makes a poor connection
Debuchy and Elneny also on for second half
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Bielik is on for second half too
chambers, bellerin, xhaka and walcott off
50 minutes – ox with a driving run, cuts in on and fires home with his left foot, 2-0
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gibbs also came on for monreal
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home town ref,
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55 minutes – good build up play, ends with debuchy being set free in the area and he crossed for Akpom to fire home. 3-0
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