So the 2015 Emirates Cup is done and dusted and next up, looming like a filthy, giant troll trying to prevent our passage over the bridge, is Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea in the upcoming Community Shield. Even though it is another glorified pre-season friendly, whose results will have absolutely no bearing on either team’s eventual league position, one can be absolutely certain that next Sunday both teams will try to lay down a marker as to how they will approach the season.
In the coming days the game will be predictably hyped by the media as Champions vs Contenders. Mourinho’s record of winning titles in 4 countries and his supposed infallibility vs Wenger will be thrust in our faces. In contrast, his record of substantially outspending almost all his opponents at every one of his managerial destinations will be shamelessly downplayed. But there will be one almost insurmountable challenge for the media; how to spin Mounrinho’s negative, boring defensive brand of football. I have no doubt he will have to employ these tactics on Sunday if he is to curb the insatiable desire of the current Arsenal squad to create goal-scoring opportunities and profit from them. These tactics are in his DNA, validated by a history of success, hence the inability of this leopard to ever change its spots. The major problem for the media is, when competing directly versus Wenger, Mourinho is completely exposed for the contrast in footballing philosophy, i.e. the professor vs the translator, the artist vs the artisan. This is increasingly validated by the masses of football fans across all the away-grounds that Chelsea must play who spontaneously erupt with chants of “boring, boring, boring” to the dismay of Mourinho’s fawning cheerleaders and stenographers in the press corp. I expect no less at Wembley.
But I digress. In truth the game is not about Wenger vs Mourinho, blah, blah, blah, but where is the current squad in terms of its readiness to make a meaningful assault on the Premier League title, the last such attempt, to my mind, having taken place in the 09-10 season. It is almost the unanimous opinion that this is the strongest group of players Wenger has assembled since the Invincibles of 2004. They are certainly more battle hardened and there is far more quality in depth than the VanNasriGas era at the height of their near-success.
So how much of a gap exists between the two clubs at the end of the 2015 season? Despite the siren cries of doom and despair from diverse pundits in the media, a look at the following table suggests Arsenal is not that far away.
| Chelsea | Arsenal | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| W | 26 | 22 | -4 |
| D | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| L | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| GF | 73 | 71 | -2 |
| GA | 32 | 36 | 4 |
| GD | 41 | 35 | -6 |
| Pts | 87 | 75 | -12 |
| Pos | 1 | 3 | 2 |
The difference between both teams can be distilled into four losses, most of which were the result of performances way inferior to the known standards of the squad as established in the 2nd half of last season. The seven losses total were to Chelsea – away, United – home, Swansea – home and away, Stoke-away, Tottenham – away, Southampton – away. With the probable exception of Chelsea and United, none of the other clubs are expected to beat Arsenal on an average day. Thus if Arsenal’s 1st team maintains the consistency and high standards it set between January and May of 2015, any reasonable man or woman would have to conclude that the gap between both clubs is surmountable.
But reasonableness is foreign to the legion of pundits feasting on the riches of the EPL. In April, even one of our more famous ex-players, Titi Henry, now seated firmly in the cushy comforts of Sky Sports, pronounced:
“Arsenal need to buy four players, they need that spine,
”They need a goalkeeper, they still need a centre-back, they still need a holding midfielder and, I’m afraid, they need a top, top-quality striker in order to win this league again.”
Despite the uproar from sections of Arsenal fan-dom and public repudiation of his statement by current players, most famously by Giroud, Henry as recent as mid July was still singing the same tune:
“I still think they need four players to get closer to Chelsea.”
In contrast, previewing the upcoming season Arsene remarked:
“We built up something special last season. That is a good team dynamic, a good confidence level, a convincing and efficient style of play. We want to work on that and we do not expect too much from outside now.
“It’s inside our squad that our performance has to be efficient. We have to focus on the quality of our performance inside the group. We also want to focus on the style of our play and our performance – that’s what football is really about.
“Part of the respect of your players is to focus on the players you have and to try to improve and look at the performance.
“We are open-minded [about transfers] everywhere and we work very hard to find the quality of the players we can. Let’s not forget that we have spent a lot of money in the last two seasons and we have bought as well Gabriel in the middle of last year to give him time to adapt and be ready for this season.
“If there is something more, we are not reluctant to spend the money. I know that you like to paint me as doing that! I didn’t do it for a while because we didn’t have the money. Now that we have, if we find the players we will spend the money.”
It is not as if Arsene words are inconsistent with his actions. So far there has been only one major signing, Petr Cech, clearly aimed at upgrading the quality of the goalkeeping department. Despite the mindless racket in the press and social media suggesting that Ospina has been a failure and therefore supplanted by Cech, in due course it became clear that Wojciech Szczęsny had been identified as the weakest link and is to be sent out on loan. This should have been self-evident to any unbiased observer of the Pole’s role in some of the poorer performances by Arsenal in the last campaign. But being unbiased is as rare as common sense among those who preach loudest about the needs of the football club.
Pre-season performances in Singapore and at home in the Emirates Cup suggests that Arsene has been working to build on the team dynamic and confidence level that was reflected in the annihilation of Aston Villa in the FA Cup final. Score-lines are usually meaningless at this stage but surely the freedom at which the team has been hitting the back of the net in these games is at minimum good for confidence.
What of the existing players whom Arsene says there is need to focus on trying to improve. The boss has suggested that the main objective is getting:
“…. some more goals from some players who are not really strikers and that was our strength traditionally. Our offensive and creative players scored 10 to 12 goals, that’s what you need. In the second part of last season we only conceded 13 goals in 19 games. So we want to keep that and add a few more goals. I think we can find that from inside, I am convinced of that. If we can find it from outside then we will do it as well.”
Upon reflection, it is clear that in 2013-14 Alexis (16) and Giroud (14) were carrying too much of a goal-scoring burden without the expected contribution by the British core in particular. Due solely to the injury blight, compared to the prior year, there was a significant fall-off in output from Walcott and Ramsey with almost no input from Oxlade-Chamberlain and Wilshere:
| 13-14 | 14-15 | |
|---|---|---|
| Walcott | 5 | 6 |
| Ramsey | 10 | 6 |
| The Ox | 2 | 1 |
| Wilshere | 3 | 2 |
The table does no justice to the significance of Theo Walcott’s the absence. In both of the years covered above he was absent for more than half-a-season. A better baseline for comparison purposes should be 2012-13, his last full season, when he scored 14 goals and made 12 assists. Surely this more than a 50% loss in expected goals from Walcott is arguably the primary reason why the club was not more competitive in the past two years. It is noticeable that the media is dominated by a clamor for a new world-class striker versus almost indifference to Arsenal re-signing someone who was on course to becoming a 20-goal a season producer. Tells us all we need to know about the hysteria and sensationalism surrounding this club.
Even the newly signed Danny Welbeck who was expected to make a contribution only scored 5 league goals in 24 games before being struck down in April.
Finally but by no means least I have included Wilshere as a possible source of goals, because from time to-to-time he has shown the potential. Last year’s strike in the match at home against Man City to put the team up 2:1, prior to conceding a late equalizer, is an example of his quality. Nobody expects Wishere to be a great goal scorer but as demonstrated by his volley against West Brom in May as well as his two long range rockets for England vs Slovenia in June, he can be a scorer of great goals. This is a very useful luxury to have.
Surely this blog hasn’t put too much pressure on the British core. But one cannot ignore the challenge that history has presented them. It bears reminding that after the heights scaled by the youth project, almost all the stars of that group showed, what can be politely described as, a lack of commitment to the club and an unwillingness to press on and win the League. Once they became stars, under Wenger’s tutelage, they all became susceptible to bigger clubs waving fistful of dollars. Arsene may never say this publicly but Adebayor, Fabregas, Nasri, Van Persie, et al had one element in common; being non-British they did not identify with the competitive tradition of the English League and could be easily swayed by more lucrative offers from competing clubs. In 2015-16, four years after signing Jack Wilshere, Kieran Gibbs, Theo Walcott, Aaron Ramsey, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (and Karl Jenkinson) to long term contracts and pronouncing them the British Core, fate has presented them with the challenge to help the club cross the winning line. Hopefully they will embrace it by staying fit and scoring the goals.
By @shottagunna
Positively Arsenal 
Fantastic read that Shotts.
LikeLike
Absolutely brilliant. Puts the rest of us to shame. Well researched and well argued, thank you.
LikeLike
Really interesting read and I think you make a good point about where those extra goals should be coming from. If you have one main goal scorer, the opposition can easily nullify that threat, but with goals coming from all over the team, it gives more variety and unpredictability to our game.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I can always depend on a kind word from Mel and Steww, my long time “bredrins”. Unlike the regular contributors at PA, my style of writing is very painful and time-consuming. I suspect it has been honed by all these years of writing reports and polite emails to my co-workers and bosses. I have no idea how you guys cook up 1,000 readable words in a jiffy. That is why George has me firmly rooted on the end of the bench.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Shotts – I don’t do the painstaking research you do but trust me the baloney I come up with is not produced ‘in a jiffy’!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Shotta playing the George Harrison role with another brilliant and memorable composition; quality over quantity every single time. Deserves to have the life tweeted out of it to get as wide exposure as possible.
Agree wholeheartedly with Passenal (as usual, it must be said); the absence of a striking talisman goes right to the heart of what makes us so unplayable at times. The opposition simply do not know who to mark. Hence AW’s desire for a few more goals from, for example, midfield.
Can’t wait for Sunday, already rehearsing the inevitable “Boring boring” homage to the antithesis of footballing excitement and looking forward to the Specially Needy One losing it in the presser after the game …
Well done again, Shotts.
LikeLike
Little of true value is, Steww.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Greetings Positivists, its been a while.
Good write-up there Shotta.
Fate indeed has presented our British Corewith a great chance to take us to the promised land and validate AW+Arsenal’s position as the purest talent producer in the land.
Remember he doesn’t believe in quotas but in competition as the best path for improvement.
Let’s hope the opportunity is taken this year and gobbled up again next year when the likes of Jenks, Szcz, Yay, etc. return to the fold.
After watching R-Adelaide yesterday, I can’t wait to see the other new faces in the red & white, starting with Yaseen Fortune..
Also looking forward to seeing more of Akpom, Hayden, Iwobi (& Wellington) in action for us or on-loan this season.
Wenger knows!
LikeLike
Hey Aman – great to see you again!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Great to be “back” Steww….great job holding things down here all year, man.
Keep up the good work
“I pity the fool(s) that doubt the Arse this season!”
LikeLiked by 1 person
Oh dear oh dear oh dear. All this talk about the possibility of winning the Premiership next season. Call me curmudgeonly if you will, but I think the time for that is April 2016 not July 2015. So many expectations can become a burden. I’m just going to enjoy one game at a time, win or lose, because whatever the result, I know Arsenal will be trying to play attractive, positive football – starting Sunday.
LikeLike
I see Anthony Taylor is referee on Sunday.
Ho hum.
LikeLike
AA @ 12:03pm: To be true to my anti-colonial heritage, that should be Peter Tosh to Bob Marley. But let’s not get carried away now. (Insert banned smiley.)
LikeLiked by 1 person
Shotta: thanks for this fantastic piece. Top writing, top research – and even more top common sense.
LikeLike
Shotts – I don’t do the painstaking research you do but trust me the baloney I come up with is produced ‘in a jiffy’!
But I suspect it takes one of our Andrews a lot longer to make it readable.
LikeLike
The problem with well thought out, researched and written blogs, is there is nothing to discuss.
LikeLike
George – why do you think the other blogs go for sensationalist bullshit? They hope people will bite. Maggots on a string.
LikeLike
Even Adrian Durham thinks the title is Arsenal’s to lose. Not even contingent on further signings.
Thinks we have strengthened, City are weakener than last term, Chelsea gone backwards and United don’t look like genuine contenders. Same true of Spurs and Liverpool.
#discuss
LikeLike
Haha, then he can say Arsene has failed if we don’t win. I have his number, The cunt.
How have CFC gone backward? I should ask Durham, as he is an expert in backward.
LikeLiked by 2 people
any of you going to members day tomorrow at the Emirates Stadium, If not its live on Arsenal Player from 11am, its a two hour show. Its usually boring enough viewing, probably better for those actually in the stadium.
LikeLike
something that the AAA would need explained to them(many times)
http://www.houstonpress.com/arts/no-it-s-not-your-opinion-you-re-just-wrong-7611752
LikeLike
LikeLike
Blimey, new posts every day, I can’t keep up!
Still glowing from a very satisfying weekend’s worth of football.
LikeLike
afcstuff @afcstuff 4h4 hours ago
According to reports, Arsenal youngster Dan Crowley is in talks with Peterborough United over a loan move.
LikeLike
A choice quotation from the article Eduardo linked “However, eventually you are going to venture out into the world and find that what you thought was an informed opinion was actually just a tiny thought based on little data and your feelings.”
Adrian Durham is of course a Posh fan. And I think I have heard that he has just married a Gooner.
LikeLike
Did he marry La Grove?
LikeLike
Staring us in the face all this time.
LikeLike
See how I changed it from “le” to “la” Those 1st year French lessons were not a waste of time after all?
LikeLike
Is le or la grove a gunner?
LikeLike
well I wonder what the article I linked would make of the latest soundbite from the AAA
“Arteta’s legs are gone”
and one for George
“Arshavin was a lazy little sod”
LikeLike
A few thoughts from Sunday. Cech is a huge physical presence, and his warm-up seemed far more intense than any previous keeper warm-up I have seen. He also seemed to be coaching Martinez at times during it, which was nice to see. I had not properly realised how important a signing this was until yesterday, which was a bit thick of me to be honest. The first half was slightly odd: it was almost as if our midfield had been instructed to allow them possession so as to give a proper test to the back 4. Whatever the truth of that, it was a test that by and large they passed admirably, with Chambers and Gabriel (in particular) seeming very secure. Jack Wilshere is a ridiculously talented footballer and to my eyes suffered from a slight lack of movement and understanding around him. I suspect there will be times during the season when we rely heavily on him, others when he is not quite so central to the team’s success. Come to think of it, that is probably true of all our midfielders – and it is right that it should be so. Theo scored his sixth goal in his fourth consecutive start, so he is clearly not the striker we are looking for, and it was good to see the rampaging Ox do just that, even if at times there does seem a touch of the china shop around him. And Jeff (please forgive me, but what kind of a French name is Jeff?) Reine-Adelaide was quite simply ridiculous and will have broken the hearts of a few older Academy boys who now know there way forward is effectively blocked.
LikeLike
Well Blackburn is twinned with Peronne George, so glad you were paying attention.
LikeLike
foreverheady from wiki
Jeffrey /ˈdʒɛfri/ is a common English given name and, a variant form of the name Geoffrey (itself from a Middle French variant of Godfrey, Gottfried).[1] It is most commonly spelled as Jeffrey, or with one f as in Jefrey.
It has been argued (Dauzat 1980) that the common derivation of Middle French Geoffrey, Jeffrey from Godfrey is mistaken, and that the names reflect to separate first Germanic elements god vs. gaut, which became conflated in Old High German by the end of the early medieval period.[2]
The three-syllable alternative spelling Jeffery (pronounced “jef-fer-ree”) is sometimes used as a variant given name. Outside of North America, Geoffrey is more common than Jeffrey. Jeffrey and its variants are found as surnames, usually as a patronymic ending in -s (e.g., Jefferies, Jaffrays). In Scotland, Jeffrey is most frequently found to be a surname.
Variations include Jeff, Jeffry, Jeffy, Jeffery, Geoff, Geoffrey, Jeffeory, Geffrey, Jefferson, and Jeffro.
LikeLiked by 1 person
George and Heady: Maybe that lady Gooner who Durham now has to lay beside nightly is telling him no more nookie if you keep winding up gooners with your premeditated b.s. That usually gets the attention of chancers like Durham.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Far be it for me to make any kind of Durham defence but I think he’s been fairly consistent over the years in predicting a top four finish at best – on account of a perceived failure to strengthen. This year he appears to be laying that particular charge at the door of our closest rivals combined with our noticeable stability and acquisition of Cech. I only mention him as being the first of the noisy media types I’ve heard to nail their predictive colours on Arsenal.
Marriage has clearly made him turn soft on the club.
LikeLike
What a superb piece Shotta! Thanks. Yes, we are being spoilt with great posts on a regular basis as Double Cannister states above. Perhaps, it’s the Wengerball which is firmly back in town.
That Jeffry lad is one hell of a find….oooh! It’s like being in delicatessen……
LikeLike
Tremendous piece Shotts, sensible, informative and persuasive.
More More !
LikeLiked by 1 person
From what I understand durr ham has two boys who are junior gooners and his bitterness derives from his anguish at his own lack of influence on his offspring and the fact they are royal ARSENAL and not just posh.
LikeLike
Cech looked thoroughly at home at the Ems, as though as he has been playing well there for years.
Which of course he has.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Sorry I forgot to thanks Shotts for another brilliant piece
LikeLiked by 1 person
The evil Mancs new ‘keeper was the back up to former Gunner (a loan I think) Emiliano Viviano at Sampdoria.
LikeLike
On the Brits:
I wonder if Jenkinson will be able to earn the England RB berth whilst on loan at west ham this season.
Gibbs has the competition with Monreal to worry about. Arsenal looking strong at FB as well as in other areas.
Chambers, both CBs playing well.
And I guess Hayden’s performance against a first choice Southampton team wasn’t forgotten. Perhaps he too is a contender for the much debated role as third choice D**M? Behind others like Ramsey who can play if Arteta or Coquelin are unavailable.
I was happy to hear the manager remind the listeners that st.jacky is (for now at his age?) an attacking midfielder. How about that pass for Walcott? Ozilicious. I’d like to see the midfield of Ramsey, Cazorla & Özil again adding in a Wilshere here or a Rosicky there. I don’t think it is over optimistic to think that is something to look forward to, though it is nice to have players like Coquelin and Arteta on the books too. Heh.
Hayden’ll will probably need a loan a some point just to try and get as many games under his belt after a season of injuries. What did those who managed to watch the games make of his admittedly brief cameo?
LikeLike
Forgot Flamini. Who can also cover both FB roles if there happens to be, I don’t know, some kind curse that only injures FBs.
LikeLike
I can admit it now.
At first I was afraid when Özil was signed. Ignoring that he was one of the best players in the world. Not for any other reason then for it what it meant for Wilshere. Two players in the same kind of role I guess ( yup, just guessing) in the squad? What was he up to? Hey, Vengarrrrrghhhhh?
Well. Others have said it. The club’s been building a big squad, seems obvious you’d hope lots would’ve seen it, for lots of reasons, Football being one of the obvious ones, and coping with lots of injuries another. Wilshere’s injury after being hacked was not helpful for the player, but such a squad can cope better.
Walcott was a real blow the season before, alongside Chamberlain. Now you could just chuck on Jeff! If Welbeck, the England teams leading scorer of late, was unavailable. Or Chuba. Or Jay-Jay II. Gnabry, any others? Easy.
Here we are a short while after Özil’s arrival and it looks like a squad with two, um, decent players at least competing for every starting position?
LikeLike
Got to the post late. Excellent post Shotta. A pleasure to read some reasoned words, especially at this time of the year.
LikeLike
Great post, shotta
LikeLike
moureen told a lie about arsenal spending in the last 3 season being more than chelsea’s in thesame period. it was almost accepted buy all media and fans maybe because it suits their narative and agenda or because their are more stupid people in english media who are willing to swallow every vomit of moreen. he also claimed that as a result of our spending, we should be winning the league title.
i have decided to check out our spending in the last 3 seasons and compare to chelsea’s. for fair comparism, i also used same website, soccernews.com as a guide.
ARSENAL
santi – 20m, giroud 15m, monreal 10m, podolski 13m, ozil 50m, welbeck 20m, alexis 44m, chamber 15m, ospina 4m, bielik 3m, gabriel 15m, and debuchi 10m, cech11m. total 230m
CHELSEA
demba ba 9m, azpilicueta 9m, moses 11m, oscar 32m, hazard 40m, wallace 6m, marin 8m, matic 25m, salah 13m, van ginkel 10m, zouma 15m, cuevas 4m, atsu 4m, willian 35m, remy 13m, posalic 2m, filipe luis 20m, fabregas 36m, costa 40m, cuadrado 31m and begovic 8m. total 370m.
all the prices are in euros.
so if they actualy out spend us in each ofthe past 3 seasons as they have done massively in the past decade, how come no one has come forward to correct him if they dont have an agenda against arsene and arsenal.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Fellow Positivistas,
I am off on my holidays this Thursday to deepest France for a fortnight and I firmly suspect will be unable to watch the Community Shield and the Appy Ammers. “Another holiday for the lazy bastard !” you say – I know, I know.
However my departure does open an opportunity for George to rotate his squad, to bring in some of the writing talent on the blog to the post game write up following each contest.
I shall be back for Palace and, fingers crossed, ready to pick up my duties again. I am conscious however that in a side as talented as PositivelyArsenal, which has taken the manager years to assemble and fine tune, no one takes anything for granted.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Andy Nic @ 10:38 am – Enjoy your 2nd holidays in what is it, 4 weeks, you lucky bastard. Given that George’s project is only two years old and is entirely self-sustaining, I sense a little regret as you know the boss needs every bit of quality if his team is to be competitive this season. You will be missed.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Fellow Positivistas,
Like Anicoll I’m off on my holidays tomorrow. I’m off to euro-ravaged Greece for just over two weeks. However, I shall try to watch the up coming games!
I must thank you all for writing great pieces lately and I apologize for not contributing in quite a while. I shall try harder when I return. The problem is, I think, that there isn’t much to moan about at the moment. I ignore the AAA. I only get second hand comments made by the malcontents through PG and others via twitter. So, I’m in “sit back and shower me with Wengerball” mode, marvel at the artistry of his players, get excited about the conveyor belt of talent that appears to be coming through….Let the show begin….
LikeLiked by 3 people