Today a guest post from Rich @AlternativeArse
It’s often been something that makes me think. How many Arsenal fans actually play/played football on a regular basis? From their apparent understanding of the game, it would appear not that many.
Now, I’m not a qualified coach, nor am I that good at football. I can run fairly fast, like to think I have an eye for a pass and understand how to play. I played to decent standard at school, have made a few cup finals in the local Sunday league divisions and even played Saturday football for a brief period.
Nowadays, I play 5-a-side in a local veterans league. I think the standard is pretty high; I’ve come up against goalkeepers who have played for Luton Town, and even teams that take part in annual international tournaments, but no matter who I’m up against, the football is often quite good.
On a Friday nights, we play a friendly match. It’s usually 6-a-side but it’s more of a practise than a full on competitive match. There is no ref, so it’s not quite as combative, but still people like to win and score plenty goals.
One chap I play with is renowned for having a very accurate left foot. He will shoot on sight from just about any distance and usually the ball will end up in the back of the net. However, one week, he couldn’t hit a barn door with a banjo.
He did hit the woodwork 3 or 4 times, but we laughed at his inability to score because of how out of the ordinary it was. The more he tried, the worse it got. His usual accuracy had deserted him for that period of 60 sweaty minutes.
Another story of randomness, would be a game I played in last Friday. My team found itself losing by about 9 goals with about 10 minutes to play. Not only were we getting pummeled, but also frustrated with our inability to hit the target as the opposing team enjoyed an almost unopposed goal fest.
That was until one of my teammates scored a halfway line belter.
That was swiftly followed by a flurry of around 10 strikes with only a couple in reply. Sure, we ended up beaten by the usual last goal wins, but the scoreline was a much more respectable and pride had been restored.
Why did all that happen? Really, we had no idea.
Football can be a funny old game.
Those of you that play or have played, I would hope are able to appreciate this viewpoint, especially if you played regularly to any standard.
The unpredictability of the game is something that can’t be explained. It’s human, it’s random and it’s something that you can’t manage or control, no matter how good the players are and no matter how assured the tactics, the human influence that is involved in football, will always affect the outcome.
My point is, that my experiences playing in the veterans league, and other’s experiences playing football, can easily be compared to how the Arsenal are playing this season.
You see, I would argue that Arsenal aren’t playing as poorly as people make out.
I would argue that Arsenal don’t need any more signings in the January window.
I would argue that Arsene Wenger is as tactically astute as the next manager.
Why? Because football really is a funny old game.
Arsene and Arsenals task is to try and effect the random elements and turn them in our favour, but there certainly isn’t any call for sackings, players being dropped to the bench or the back room staff muttering of discontent and disillusionment.
Fans need to be a bit more realistic in their assessment.
Our league form is, well…as normal…
This season, folks are getting very wound up about our position in the league and our lack of progression up the table. The latest loss to Swansea went down like a lead balloon amongst the Arsenal faithful, and subsequently we dropped from 5th to 6th.
6th position and 17 points. Ohh the terror.
With only another 27 games to play, you might think we are fighting a relegation battle, judging by some of the reaction. If you look to past seasons league positions at this stage, you might be surprised we are actually par for the course;
Premiership Table 2014 & 2013 to November 13th
statto.com
Premiership Table 2012 & 2011 to November 13th
statto.com
Our league form fluctuates in the top half of the table every year as our squad looks for form and players get on their game and grow in confidence.
Such is the way of football. It’s difficult to predict, and this happens every year, with a few exceptions of course; last season for instance.
We might not be top this season, but Arsenal are still competitive.
This season, the knives appear to be out in a big way, probably because in comparison, we had such a good start last time round and Chelski are running away a little bit. But there are plenty of games to go, and don’t forget the players we have out injured.
Injuries?!? Arsene should have prepared by buying more players!
I disagree. The players that we have already are good enough and despite the absences, Arsenal are still playing very decent football.
Those of you who aren’t convinced that we are playing well should also pay a bit more attention how we are playing, not just the results.
But the results are what matter!?
Yes they are. But we have to be playing well in the first place to achieve better results. And Arsenal are set and ready to go in that respect.
Defending is not the issue…scoring goals is.
Some ans are currently talking about the need for a new centre back and a new midfielder, as we are apparently scoring goals with abandon through Alexis Sanchez.
But we are not.
Despite the heroics of our Chilean and his firey boots of thunder, putting the ball in the back of the net appears to be Arsenal’s undoing, again.
Our ability to convert the chances we create is letting us down, big time;
Chances created by premier league teams so far this season.
The statistics speak volumes. Second in the chances created table for the Premiership so far. It’s a a pity that the assist figure isn’t higher as if it was, we would be winning more games.
This can be reinforced further by looking at how our shooting fairs against the other sides in the premiership, as in the past, that’s always been a quandary;
Shots taken by teams in the premier league this season
Oops. Second again. Higher than all the teams above us in the league, bar Man City, and we are taking the most shots outside of the area. Plenty of shots…just not many goals. Be that because our players go boss-eyed at the sight of the sticks, or that opposition are literally sacrificing themselves to keep the ball out of the net, who knows, but if you don’t take shots, you don’t score goals.
Just to appease you, as you probably don’t believe those figures…I took a look at our defensive performance too;
Defensive performance by Premier League teams so far this season.
Huh? Third ? According to the statistics, we have a better defence than Chelsea ? How can this be ?
Well, there are several factors that can influence these figures, and this is how I interpret them;
The lower the score, the better a team is at dealing with opposition through it’s midfield, with the forward players tracking back to defend. Either that, or the defenders never really have to do much defending, because we are always attacking, or we maintain a lot of possession.
That is the best way to stop the opposition scoring – don’t let them have the ball.
But those defensive numbers don’t take possession into consideration – that’s a different statistic.
The numbers would suggest that we are actually defending very well, all over the pitch.
Of course, there will be anomalies, but what you can’t count in all these figures is the number of goals we concede through no fault of our own. Through elements out of our control. What I mean by that is the oppositions ability to fashion a chance themselves – be that from a free kick, good play or how the ball bounces.
Gylfi Sigurdsson’s epic against Swansea is a prime example, as is the Anderlect offside goal and Southampton’s Clyne strike in the Capital One cup. They aren’t errors of Arsenals making, rather the oppositions ability to capitalise on brief opportunity, and you can’t do much about that.
Arsenal are creating a world of opportunities to win matches, we simply aren’t making the most of then at the moment.
Still not convinced ?
Well how about if I show you that Arsenal are currently 12th on the list of chances created per game in Europes top 5 leagues;
Chances created – Top 5 European Leagues this season.
Or how about that statistically speaking, Arsenal are the 7th best performing team out of those same leagues ?
Team performance score so far this season – Top 5 European Leagues.
Yes so it’s a performance score…that really mean nothing, but it’s applicable to all teams and a good way of measuring how you are playing, and Arsenal are playing very well. We are not winning, but we are playing very well.
The fact is, that you can play very well in all your matches, you can create the chances and defended resolutely, but if the ball simply won’t go in the net…then it’s not going to be your day.
Scoring more goals than the opposition is what really matters.
But isn’t that just the point?
Regardless of how you play, regardless of the statistics and numbers, from veterans league, all the way up to the premiership, there is no football script. There is no “win the game” power up, nor is there a switch that turns on skills or goals.
In reality, it’s all about specific moments on the pitch and how individuals deal with them in a split second. Even the galactic mind powers of Arsene Wenger, controlling all he surveys like a zombie king, can’t stop Arsenal’s opposition from having an excellent match winning moment or give the referee sight beyond sight.
That is after all what they are are also on the pitch for and if we can’t get the ball in the net, we’re not going to beat them no matter what we do.
That is just how football goes.
Positively Arsenal 
It’s an encouraging read, Is it based on this perhaps:
http://t.co/ogQM5jMPIK
Thanks for an enjoyable lunchtime read.
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Thanks Rich
Here is another spreadsheet.
based on data in Forbes football club rich list.
Using operating income as a yardstick – Arsenal are not the super rich club some bloggers and pundits think we are, there is no Smaug’s horde of treasure under the mountain. The Club can afford one, possibly two superstar player a year. We still have a lot of work to do to catch up on rivals who have been spending far more for much longer.
The most fantastic achievement of the Club and the management team is that we have managed to stay in touch with the super spenders at all.
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DC, you forgot the link
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An enjoyable read Tim and I love the method of using statistics to prove that statistics prove nothing, in football or something like that anyway (!)
There is a book that I think that DC pointed me at a little while back called The Numbers Game by Chris Anderson that produces exactly the same conclusion about the rise of football data and the dubious proposition of trying the convert the infinite variation of a just one game of football into meaningful patterns using mathematics, in 50% of the time at least.
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Thanks Rich.
“That was until one of my teammates scored a halfway line belter.”
I hope you were playing five-a-side!
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You can’t analyse a game of football just by using stats alone but they can be helpful. Different to cricket where in a test match there are so many bowls bowled that certain stats from averages have been used as a reasonable yet still rough guide on players for decades.
Someone would’ve approached Grimandi with some numbers on Koscielny before he was signed. To which the answer would’ve been:
A) “Heh. I’ve been watching him for years and years already. We’re on the case.”
Or
B) “Holy Primorac! Boro come and have a look, these are seriously hardcore numbers for a CB. Book me a flight, and don’t delay!”
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Brilliant article.This should be posted on all Arsenal websites,it certainly makes interesting reading in our meida sensationalist times.Thanks for doing the research.
ps Good to see Hunter hunting on UA.Long may it last.
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Hey folks,
Thanks or reading and glad you all liked it!
To answer your question Finsbury – yes it was a halfway line belter during a 5-a-side game 🙂
Georgaki – I hadn’t seen that piece until you brought it to my attention…it is pretty similar, but shows I’m not alone in my train of thought and what I see on the pitch.
Thanks for the responses folks, appriciated.
Rich
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Thanks for this!
It’s a very good point about actually “do you know how it is to play fotball?”.
I come from Norway and last year a freind of mine and me got to play for ourselves on Tromsø’s (the local premiership team) pitch. It was the first time for 10 years I got to experience the width of a full sized pitch. To make a long story short – everything looks different on the TV! The perspective down on the pitch feels much smaller.
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That’s a relief.
Thanks again Rich for sharing your thoughts on the beautiful game.
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Thanks Rich: really good points and I enjoyed reading it. Stuff happens in sport that is beyond rational explanation: good players go awol, ordinary ones have sudden moments of brilliance. The cream rises to the top over a long season (or would, if the referees called it evenly) but bookmakers always enjoy the romance of the cup!
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Super post Rich, really interesting. And despite not playing the game myself, I still get what you are saying.
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Thanks, Rich. This is good stuff. I’ve never kicked a ball either, and I’ve pretty much had to teach myself an appreciation of the game and its unpredictability. This is where the online world has been so helpful to me. I can’t say enough times how much I’ve learned from y’all. But I’ve also gotten real lessons on how to spot bullshit when I see it. And to me, the notion that we’ve been playing shit was exactly that…bullshit. Thanks for reinforcing that view for me.
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A very good Post.
When I was 15 I played at CH for a local team, and we were murdered away 7:1 and the other team seemed twice as fast and made us look……well, pure crap.
To say we were stunned, is to put it politely.
We met them in a cup match 3 weeks later and we won 5:1 with exactly the same team.
Go figure.
That’s football. [Same manager, same gee up before each game – different result – how could that be the manager’s fault in the first game and to his credit in the second?
No, it was the team as individuals, and all of us as a team – crap and then excellent!]
Who’d a thunk it?
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Its 18 years since I kicked a ball in anger, it was usually anger, and I can say without one second of hesitation that since I have quit participating my knowledge of the game has increase expotentially year by year.
Where previously I might have hesitated to slam a player for a poor pass or slack control, aware of how bloody difficult it can be to control the bloody thing with a gorilla chasing you, now I can wade into them with gusto.
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Clearly HenryB money changed hands – Malaysian book makers were at work – no other explanation is credible.
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Nice one, anicoll.
The local pub team I played for had a number of ex-professional youth team players from a couple of premier clubs. Did not make the cut, but were brilliant compared with the rest of us.
I had limited talent – very limited – but I was big and tall, and kicked any of the opposition players who came near me – it had to be that way round – otherwise I could not catch the buggers.
I am not totally sure that having had footballing experience is necessarily a good thing, as it can be used as an argument clincher. You know the “I played for XFC third team reserves at a competitive level and I know better than you. So I win.” Bollix to that!
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anicoll,
I refute any suggestion that I tripped over the same blade of grass for three of their goals, gave away a blatant penalty,and called the ref a cnut, just because my girlfriend’s brothers played for the opposition.
[Chuckles while dragging knuckles along the carpet. Neanderthal? Moi?]
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A thousand years ago, maybe 1978, a few of the Sussex cricketers who found themselves in England for the winter, as opposed to coaching in sunnier climes, decided it would be fun and good for morale to meet up each Sunday to play football against some of the local Sussex clubs. We weren’t a bad side to be honest: young, athletic and naturally sporty, even if we had opted to make our names (or not) at a different game and we won most of the matches I remember. Someone decided it would be fun to play a charity game towards the end of the season, and so we lined up against a team of ex Brighton and Hove Albion Pros, many of whom had also played cricket for Sussex, it being possible to do both in the dim and distant. We lined up before the start and were introduced to the crowd, and I remember thinking how very thin and weedy our legs and knees looked compared to them, but also feeling pretty certain that given their age we’d find it all pretty easy. We hardly got a kick of the ball all game, such was their superior skill and game management. A massive lesson, and one I try to remember every time someone tries to tell me that someone can’t play.
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I know what you mean about being on the same pitch as players with a bit of talent Henry.
As I said the last game I played was years ago, in early December and an evening match against a big law firm. A cold, black and wild night it was.
The sneaky bastards, just like us, had brought in a few ringers as “staff members”. We brought in two youngsters from QPRs youth team and a reserve keeper from Charlton or Palace. They did the same but with four youngsters from Brentford. The
“professionals” duly rang rings round both sides, a novel experience for the lawyers no doubt. Bloody rings. Finished about 7-6.
And it was during the first half as I told my legs where I needed to be as these little bastards trotted past me yet again, but was ignored by those previously reliable two lower limbs, that I understood my days as a footballer were over. (Sniffs loudly )
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anicoll, [banned thingamajig]
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Brilliant piece and well researched, football is made on fine lines and many teams who have won trophies have proved that the only difference between 1st and 2nd is luck. Its the same when a team who is playing average suddenly goes on a ten game winning streak.
If you look back over the history of the champions leagues and its fore runner the European cup, its very rarely the best team that wins it.
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I love all the football memoirs tonight. What a bunch of interesting bastards you all are!
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wow… glad to know there is enough data to supposed that fact arsenal are not playing too badly just yet to clock due to disruptions here and there
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Well that was top notch from Celtic Park – great contest
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Bravo. Brilliant stuff.
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typos abounded… rather should read
wow… glad to know there is enough data to support the fact that arsenal are not playing too badly just yet to click as a team due to disruptions here and there
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Very thorough piece, Rich. I don’t think many doubt we will be there or thereabouts in the top 4, perhaps even 3rd by the end of the season. We will in all likelihood get out of the CL group but most probably in 2nd. We’ve just started very slowly. Many thought we’d be doing better, though, or at least hoped so–I suspect therein lies the apparent unhappiness.
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It doesn’t help that so much crap gets written or spoken about Football. Some People get confused, they forget to watch the game, and instead they listen to the plundits: “he got the ball!”
e.g.: it almost happened to me last night. I could only listen on the radio to the derby game last night and Pat Nevin described the goal for Scotland as a practiced routine. Fortunately I saw the goal today and it just looked like a (good) goal from a short corner, nothing rehearsed. And lo and behold, this morning the goalscorer said that Scotland did not practise the routine from a short corner.
Almost as if the plundit could not recognise or give credit for a passage of good improvised play, of good football. They couldn’t believe it, and they had to convince themselves that it was a rehearsed set play.
In a low scoring game i would have hoped the plundits would give the players (both defenders and attackers) the credit for their football, but, well, it seems that as with Rich’s article, it appears as if a lot of them don’t pay attention to the actual Football on the pitch!
When you compare this poverty to the quality of cricket coverage I can get, listening to Holding talk about the fast bowling, or say Hussein the batting, this level of plunditry is a bazillion miles away from what you get in other sports. Yet they pay so much for the rights!
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i think its becoming clearer now that gibbs is far better than bains. gibbs has been the best left back is epl for the past three seasons, his injuries not withstanding. it is not all about puting in some hopeful decent crosses, expecting somebody to fall from galaxy to connect. its about cutting in when necessary, cut back for someone in better position or even running into the box when there is the chance. most importantly, defend very well. someone needs to tell woy that suarez is no longer in liverpool. he needs to drop henderson and starling cant start ahead of ox.
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Rich, keep ’em coming!
We, cannot allow PG, to go weak-kneed on us!
Football, as in life, there are always those who can have your measure. I suppose the same goes for karate, is it, PG?
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Three very polished performances from our England boys yesterday. Wilshere learning to play the Arteta role maybe?
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FH @ 9:16am – Any surprise that the Arsenal boys were critical to such a strong finish by England? Consistent with Rich’s blog, in the long run quality will always prevail over the occasional one-off shocker.
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Jack Wilshere continues to shine in a playing system designed to ruin his credibility by Roy Hodgeson. How many chances has Henderson been given yet still shows no international ability.
Gibbs was a very naught y boy – should have been a red card.
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PG
List is on twitter – IT problems loading it to WordPress at the moment.
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Henderson I would go so far as to admit was quite useful in some games last season but this year he has reverted to form that has been the norm for most of his Liverpool career, average – seems to be another one season wonder.
I am anxious about the Scotland game for our brave Arsenal lads. I suspect, in fact I don’t suspect I KNOW, that the game will be played at a frantic pace and the tackles will be flying in left, right and right up ’em.
I would not be sorry to see all our lads rested.
The difficulty is with the Scots the only way to counter their inherent viciousness is with a response of overwhelming unrelenting violence.
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Not sure if it was as bad as Ba’s unpunished stomp on Arteta (made right under the Uefa official’s nose), maybe the opponent had said the wrong thing, maybe Gibbo was just simply disgusted with the state of the FA’s billion dollar pitch and he slipped or maybe he thought he was warming up for the game against Utd?
Nice to see the Arsenal player getting the recognition he deserves as the country’s best LB
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Worried that Hodgson will play Chambo and Chambo Mk II in the Scotland game, Wilshere too. Walcott? Surely not? Trying to look for a plus if played, if Wilshere can learn to get through a game like that without diving in at the wrong moment that would be a good sign I suppose,
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Having complained bitterly about time wasting just about every time we play I have just adopted the hypocritical stance of applauding every Welsh tactic towards that end. And to my eyes young Ramsey avoided injury and got more pitch miles under his belt, so touch wood that is good.
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can’t wait for Wenger’s comments on Podolski, Diaby, Pogba and Varnae to be twisted by the moaners.
He said Podolski is not for sale and his late return from World Cup, and that others are ahead of him have restricted his playing time.
Diaby had his ankle destroyed, and its that alone that has led to his injury problems, and if Diaby can get and stay fit he will get a new contract.
Arsenal tried to sign Pogba (think he meant when he left Man Utd), and Pogba can be the best in the world if he has right attitude.
Varane needs to play week in week out if he is to become the top player he can be
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Hi all. Interesting reading. I won’t bore you all with my football playing memories – I was crap. I did once have a story which was my claim to fame but I’m so old now I’ve forgotten it.
Hey anicoll – less of the Scots clichés – problem is there is no such thing as an England – Scotland friendly. I hope Gibbs is rested and Luke Shaw plays. No doubt Walcott will get 45 minutes and do his other knee.
Roll on Saturday when real football is back.
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Don’t you just love it when someone posts an article that confirms one’s bias using the ‘facts’! Okay, an interpretation of the available data then. But a really good piece which really shoudn’t be necessary, especially round these parts, but after the heady months spent lording it at the top of the PL last season and a truly well-earned FA Cup acquisition, I think everyone can be forgiven for feeling the ‘expectations gap’ this season.
But the ‘facts’ are that the combination of World Cup, new arrivals/unfamiliar faces and a large hill of injuries were always going to put the start of our season into the slow lane this year. Chelsea’s turbo-charged, referee-assisted opening has added rocket fuel to the tanks of the panicky ones sufficient to draw a veil over the struggles of just about every other side in the league with the notable exception of Champions’ League and World Cup hangover-free Southampton.
But Chelsea, contrary to most media reports, haven’t yet won the league and we are still in touch in all but the League Cup competition. Most recognise, as is usual for our star-laden squads, in a World Cup/European Cup year, our season doesn’t tend to kick in until after Xmas. My hunch is that in the same way Theo’s injury was possibly last season’s turning point (or was it the loss of Ozil?), the return of Giroud and Ozil may retrospectively be seen as this season’s turning point.
Only this time, a turning very much in our favour.
As Rich’s super article points out, the signs are all there for those prepared to read them.
An Arsenal supplied England spine getting a decent competitive win at the weekend may yet prove to be another …
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And I don’t think, AA, that it will do any harm for Theo to get some minutes v Scotland. I could do without Gibbs or Chambers playing, however.
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ArsenalA,
I very much agree with that comment, [7:37 a.m.] and as you implied, the content should not come as a surprise, everyone should take that as the norm.
So far this season, compared to last, we are struggling, yes – “Pool are struggling, yes -Citeh are struggling, yes – and by all accounts the Chavs, altho’ winning at the moment, are also playing relatively poorly.
So, all the top teams from last season are struggling by comparison to last year, and the poor old Spuds don’t seem to know what they are doing.
Is there a common factor staring us in the face here? Something like — err, well, that’s football.
Therefore the repetitive complaining about Wenger, enjoyed by so many, seems a little OTT.
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I really love Arsene Wenger especially when he is not mincing words and blows the lid on the entire English football establishment. Take this quote:
“A footballer needs his ankle. He was destroyed by a bad tackle at Sunderland six or seven years ago which altered his ankle. He is not a fragile player. He was the victim of an assassin’s tackle that went unpunished.”
The worse thing is the treachery of the Arsenal 5th columnists who in some twisted version of the Stockholm syndrome take the side of the assasin rather than the victim. Well Arsene just rammed one down their spineless craw by indicating if Diaby can regain fitness he will re-sign him to a one year contract.
Now that is what you call loyalty and ethics in a game ruined by the media and fans who treat players like an cheap whore, whom you pay and dismiss of as soon as you have had your fun.
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Well said Shotts
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For those like Pass and LG who may be interested there has been a release of more blocks of tickets for the Newcastle game on Saturday the 13th December – I have just scooped one up !
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The other thing that struck me from that weekend interview with Arsene was his comment about trying to sign Pogba while he was leaving United. The fact is we had our own Pogba in the form of Diaby, a lanky man-child at least 4 years ahead in his development compared to the Juventus man. People easily forget Diaby was in the French 1st XI at the 2010 World Cup while Pogba was home playing computer games. Fortunately for Pogba he was protected in Italy while Diaby was being stamped in his ankles by Robinson of Bolton and Essien of Chelsea without an ounce of retribution by the officials.
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the interesting thing about his trying to sign pogba comment was that it showed that despite wanting to sign the lad, Arsenal were unprepared to break the rules, and waited till the summer to try to sign him, while Juve had got the deal done by then cos they could talk to him from January. Its a silly rule that a player can talk to clubs from other countries six months before end of contract but has to wait till contract is up to talk to clubs in his current county.
We know players(RVP, Nasri etc) who have talked to clubs with much more time on their contracts, but Arsenal it seems are not prepared to break the rules for the players they want. But I’m sure the moaners will not see this as a good thing.
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Top top CMs do not grow on trees, it’s why Ramsey’s recovery was so heartwarming to see. Sure he’s had a dip but I don’t think he’s been fully fit since his return a few weeks ago. Even in yesterday’s game against Belgium he seemed to be playing on with a knack? (That’s just a guess).
He was also playing as an auxiliary forward which is not ideal IMO. Ramsey and Wilshere are playing the opposite roles I’d like to see them practice with their national teams.
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Anyone see the Czech game?
How did TR7 look?
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I did not see the Czech game Fins and I admit I was “footballed-out” by the time it came on.
I saw the Welsh game and fair play to the Taffs who smothered the Belgians through almost the whole evening. it was not until time added on that the home side really cracked the Welsh defence and even then a combination of the keeper Hennessy and Bale managed to knock it off the line.
Hazard was very good as was Bale, the other 18 players I am afraid were in their shade including Aaron. He did OK but last night he still looked rusty and lacking a sure touch. The other exceptions were both keepers who were both faultless all night.
The notion of Belgium being a FIFA “top four” football country has to be cobblers though. Courtois and Hazard cant do everything on their own.
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