This blog was written 24 hours before Arsenal’s loss to Stoke. Everything football and media-wise from that game reinforces my findings and conclusions.
Positivistas: This is not a blog about me per se but am using my experience to explain to our audience the meaning of a contrarian world view and how it applies to the football club we so love and support. After all so much is written and said about this club on a daily basis which, to me at least, is confusing and contradictory and makes absolutely no sense. Hopefully this essay may be helpful in providing a rational and logical perspective.
A contrarian according to the Webster on-line dictionary is defined as:
“One who takes a contrary view or action, especially an investor who makes decisions that contradict prevailing wisdom, as in buying securities that are unpopular at the time.”
Contrarian investors are usually successfully because they buy stocks when they are cheap due to their unpopularity and profit from them when their value rises over time.
Contrarians Rely on the Unbiased Data
As a self-described contrarian I will therefore typically disagree with or proceed against current opinion or established practice. But contrarians do not disagree simply to be disagreeable. Any successful contrarian investor, will base their opinions and findings entirely on the unbiased data, meaning it is subject to robust statistical analysis and not stitched up to suit a particular viewpoint.
Thus, for example, in my last blog I did not prescribe either an attack or defense oriented approach this season after analyzing 21 years of data demonstrating a widening gap in Goals-Against between Arsenal and the winning teams in the premier league. The data was clearly suggesting a more balanced approach where the club not only aims to score more goals but also concentrate on conceding less.
It may interest you how I arrived at this outlook. Twenty years ago I became one of the increasing millions of Americans whose employer no longer offer standard pensions, the alternative was a defined savings plans, in my case it being the very popular 401(k) retirement plan. Initially I was one of those passive investors who followed the conventional rules proclaimed by brokers, investment advisers and the mainstream media, i.e. always fully invested in the market regardless of highs and lows. Despite repeated evidence that the stock market is a dangerous place for uninformed amateurs I was like a lamb to the slaughter buying high and sell low.
My “Damascene” moment was the 2008-2009 crisis when, like almost all my American cohorts, my retirement nest-egg was almost totally wiped out by the stock market crash. I then learnt, like millions, how the big investment houses and banks such as Goldman, Merrill-Lynch, Deutsche, Barclays, etc., engineered the bubble arm-in-arm with the mainstream media, conveniently bailing out before the shit-hit-the-fan.
Public Sentiment Is A Contrarian Indicator
It is well known among all academic studies that when it comes to market performance public sentiment is a contrarian indicator. The public is inclined to buy on good news when prices are high and sell on bad news when prices are low; clearly a losing proposition.
Contrarians partially attribute this to Freud’s theory that unconsciously we human beings are often motivated by our primal instincts of fear and despair. Thus, for example, I was one of millions in 2007 who feared missing out on the rising market, refusing to sell when the market was topping out. Similarly, when the market hit rock bottom in 2009-2010 and the Feds were pumping trillions in the market most of us missed the monumental increase in stock prices out of despair that the market would ever recover again.
Similarly, how many times have Arsenal fans acted irrationally based on fear sown by the mainstream media that the club is on the edge of disaster because of a run of bad results. Despite 21 years of history showing Arsene Wenger is the most knowledgeable, most accomplished and most consistent manager in the league, fans have been frequently stirred and motivated to drive their greatest ever manager out of the club. At the very moment they are acting most irrationally the club is usually digging itself out of a hole. Last year was no exception. While the mainstream media was rushing to wager bets as to how soon Arsene Wenger would get his pink-slip, between April and May the club won 10 out of 11 matches to not only move from 8th to 5th in the league but to also secure its 3rd FA cup title in four years.
Mainstream Media Can Never Be Neutral
Much related and connected to public sentiment is the role of the mainstream media which is often the purveyors of public opinion. Contrary to conventional wisdom that the media has a neutral, unbiased interest in reporting facts, when it comes to money and investing they have a commercial interest in propagating fear and despair. Fear sells. It generates newspaper sales, listeners/viewers in radio/television and clicks on-line.
No commercially-oriented media company benefits from the boring up and down behavior of the market. To the contrary, if a media company is commercially dependent on investment banks, brokers, mutual funds etc., it is in their objective interest to hype a rise and fall of the market. At the very least, there are commissions to be made by market insiders when stocks are heavily traded.
Oftentimes a media representative, like a broker, may be professionally aware that the market is set for a fall, but because his or her commission is tied to generating new sales, he/she continue to induce more lemmings to invest, leading them like little lambs to the slaughter. No wonder so many of us were fully invested in worthless mortgage-related stocks during the last crash.
No Interest In Boring Arsenal
Similarly no commercial media house has an interest in “boring, boring” Arsenal. Just in terms of sheer numbers, supporters of the football club are clearly a fertile market for media exploitation. For example, from the reports I have read, Arsenal has the biggest online presence among football clubs worldwide. Since Wenger transformed the club into one of the biggest in England, there are now huge expectations by fans season after season. Correspondingly among these fans is chronic anxiety that the club may be falling behind its better financed rivals, not only to the traditional commercial giant Manchester United but the nouveau rich externally financed clubs, Chelsea and City.
It is no surprise that not a day passes without an alarming story in the mainstream media portending disaster at Arsenal football Club. Take for example, this week’s headlines from a Google search:
Liverpool join Arsenal in race for Jean Michael Seri: Reds in talks with Nice – Daily Express
Liverpool on brink of signing Arsenal target Jean Michael Seri – Daily Star
Liverpool Set to Sign Ligue 1 Midfield Star Seri Ahead of Arsenal, Tottenham – Sports Illustrated
It begs the question has Arsenal ever publicly disclosed an interest in signing Seri? Does the club ever get into a bidding war for any player? Any informed fan should have the answer to both questions.
Public Sentiment Is Against Arsenal
What of the current predictions by the media for Arsenal this season? As evident below is all doom and gloom:
- 6th Place – Guardian (Writers predictions)
- 6th Place – BBC (Writers predictions)
- 4th Place – ESPN (Writers predictions)
One wonders what are the factual bases for these predictions. We have had 21 years of Arsenal averaging 3rd position in the premier league and never falling out of the top-4 except last season. This new campaign the club has kept all of its top players from the previous season and furthermore strengthened the squad with: (1) the second highest goal-scorer from the French league, and (2) a left-back who made the Budesliga best XI for the last season.
The fundamental data is therefore indicating the current squad is deeper and better qualitatively than it was last year and, arguably, better than it has ever been since 2005. It seems to me a clear case of the mainstream media once again discounting the facts and data and simply emphasizing current negative public sentiment. What a surprise!
Contrarians are usually in a small minority, at least initially. I am therefore amongst a precious few who will confidently wager on a title challenge. In fact I will go further and predict Arsenal will most certainly regain its top-3 position. Only a total injury disaster will prevent this achievement and, if they are allowed to get away with it, undue referee bias.
For the sake of irony, I will conclude with the following disclosure: Information in this essay is not investment advice. Please consult a financial professional to help make decisions suitable to your particular situation and risk tolerance. That should take care of the bleeding football “experts” writing blogs, tweeting and doing podcasts.
Postscript:
Arsenal this season may well suffer from undue referee bias and another penalty embargo but vs Stoke they were statistically dominant despite being denied two penalties and a good goal ruled offside. The following summary was obtained from Whoscored.com:
| Stoke | Key Metric | Arsenal |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 63% | Pass Success % | 88% |
| 64% | Aerial Duel Success | 36% |
| 7 | Dribbles won | 13 |
| 19 | Tackles | 16 |
| 23% | Possession | 77% |
I rest my case.
Positively Arsenal 
No wonder he lost his rag.
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Look at Citys no5. Did he get anything?
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I hadn’t seen all the challenges. Ref deffo to blame letting them get away with those. That Number Eight carried on with the play acting long after Jack was sent off, what an arsehole.
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No8 spent a bit of time clutching his face, Jack didn’t even go anywhere near his face. Deserved and Oscar-or another yellow after a post-game review by the refs for acting.Citys No5 should have been off too.
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PG has made a good point on twitter – yeah me too – about the big risk of offering Alexis and Ozil 4 or 5 year contracts on the massive wages they seem to be asking for.
Both players are 28, will be 29 before the end of the year, RVP for example really took a major downward spiral once he hit 30, what if same happens alexis and ozil, we could be stuck with them on £300K – £400K a week contracts and 3 to 4 years to run on them. that could be a combined £40M a year on wages, x 3 is £120M of wages.
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not sure Mills what poll you are referring to, but I will say that any pollster who words the question with “and get someone better” is being disingenuous at best, and downright being a cunt at worst.
what fan, for that matter, what kind of idiot would you need to be to not want a “better player” in, don’t we all want better everything in our lives, if we can get it.
I know no supporter of any club who would not agree that its a good idea to replace players with better ones. You know Real Madrid fans would gladly replace Ronaldo with someone better if that was an option. So whoever ran the replace ozil poll is just being an attention seeking cunt continuing an agenda against Arsenal.
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With all due respect to George, we are in rare disagreement. I think it is madness to want Oxlade-Chamberlain to leave Arsenal now. Despite his weaknesses he is arguably the most talented Englishman on the squad with considerable scope to grow and develop. His weaknesses can easily be remedied in 1-2 years. Ask yourself why all the big PL clubs are sniffing around him. I just tweeted:
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but are they, we only have the media’s word on that. Not seen Arsenal say there has been interest, I’ve not seen any bpl manager say they are in for him either
the guy is 24, has over 250 career games, surely we should not be talking about another year or two before his weaknesses can be remedied, and you say “easily remedied”, well if its easy, why has it not been done so far, and why will it take up to two years more to do so.
I tweeted this about ox and for me it sums up the dilemma for most gooners
eduardo1966 @edminton1966 5m5 minutes ago
I do believe that it is the fear of Ox fulfilling his potential with another club that scares fans the most not what he actually is now 4 us
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a simple question on the OX for you all
is he in your first choice starting 11 if so in what position, is he at RWB ahead of Hector Bellerin
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Good points Ed that you and George make about the wages in forth-coming years. How it would all pan out, none I know can see. The whole saga becomes more and more complex.
Sure is a difficult position the club are in.
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well wenger keeps insisting that the hold up with alexis and ozil is not about wages, that its giving them what the want on the field of play, that is a league title or cl. Well have we done enough with the squad this summer to give them that, I doubt it, ten days to improve it. Would be interesting to see if they sign new deals if we sign another couple quality players.
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What happens if I don’t have a “first choice starting 11” ? What happens if I have a group of players who I choose from because I can see which of them can take the opposition apart, and different opponents require different solutions ?
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Give me the simple answer to my question – and I can give you the simple answer to your question eddy!
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well that would be great if either hector or ox was taking opposition apart. or if Wenger was known for changing team selection for different opposition. At the moment it looks more like he is trying to placate both ox and hb at least till the window closes and no transfer request will be handed in.
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I’m sure you, like Arsene and young Jurgen (apparently) are keen to have a player so versatile and so experienced as AOC though eddy – a winger on both flanks, a central midfielder, and while he may have just picked up the wing back gig in late March as sound in the position as any other over the past dozen PL games.
How could you not do your damndest to keep this player in your squad ?
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If you’d like to give me a list of the “taking the opposition apart” candidates btw fell free – assuming AOC and Hector are absent
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Fair point to raise that some jobs on a football pitch are singular- goalkeeping for instance
Unless you actually have Manuel Neuer in the squad the notion of top keeper AND a ball playing keeper is utter utter bollocks (presumably Pep is not a reader)
Good quality and intelligent footballers though are the lubricant of the best football teams
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I will do that if you can give me a list of the opponents they have taken apart.
I have no problem with and in fact agree with wanting Ox at AFC, but if the lad is not going to sign a new deal then what is the point. Are we just trying to improve him for whoever gets him on a bosman next summer. Hid agent has been feeding stories all summer long that the lad will not sign. Keeps saying its not about money, and is now claiming that its about playing CM. Well if Ox is in agreement with his agent, and after all the agent works for ox, so why should we think ox does not agree, then really are we not on a loser here.
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and I have the same stance on Alexis and Ozil, if they are not ready to commit or if we can not provide the conditions that will get them to sign, then we should have sold them
again just like ox, it all depends on what they are saying privately, its just so far they get some leeway cos their agents have not been active in the media
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Cohen Bramall take off injured on his Brum debut, don’t know what the injury is other than he went off limping
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I’m with Eddy here. I would keep AOC if he was going to sign. But if he isn’t cash the chips in.
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AOC and his contract eh ?
All about opinion innit
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As though if I had any knowledge of AOC’s contract I would express an opinion on it
On here
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Prefer to comment on what I see – very good and apperently adaptable player – why on earth would he be sold ?
For what purpose
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https://www.arsenal.com/news/u-18s-arsenal-1-0-aston-villa-report
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Well Andy, we do know he is in his final year. And we do know that if he doesn’t extend, at the end of the year he can walk for free. And we do know that very few players go to the end of a contract and stay.
That is enough “knowing” for me to consider it might be an idea to sell him.
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Well, as I said on twitter, it makes no sense pushing Ox through the door when there is little or no chance of signing a replacement of equivalent or superior talent, especially an Englishman. Name me an Englishman better than or equal to The Ox, for his versatility, strength and speed? How much would such an Englishman cost? Last year Sterling went to City for over £40 million and everyone was in awe of his fee. Prices this year are even more inflated. I say do everything to keep the squad intact with the best talent from last year. Next year will sort itself out. Agents and players seeking maximum from the market are a fact of life and they have have plenty leverage with all that money sloshing around in the PL especially the sugar-daddy clubs.
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if he is sold he will be sold for the same reason most players are sold, in no particular order
their value or above is offered
they can be replaced by better
the want to go
it makes the most financial sense
they are no longer wanted at the club
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Why do we have to buy an English player?
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why does it have to be an English man, when have we started to limit ourselves to that small pool of talent.
of course we should do what we can to keep the squad together, well the ones we want to keep, that is. But for me any player who really wants out, and is clear they will not extend their contracts should be sold if we can get anywhere near value for them.
as for next year will take care of itself, don’t agree, if we lose £100M+ worth of players from the squad, for free, then we have the double burden of not only having to get as good, just to stay at same level, but at a likely massive cost, using the funds that could be better used in strengthening the team.
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I just used English for reference. But I have no illusions that Wenger wants to keep an English core for competitive reasons. Refs have found it easy to screw over our foreign contingent with no risk of retribution from the public or the FA.
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never seen any public outrage at the kickings Jack Wilshere has taken over the years, nor theo, or any other English player we have had, why should we expect it to start now.
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For example. if Xhaka was English, do you think Moss would have screwed him over so easily? The 1st red card in particular was egregious. Nobody before and nobody since have had more than a yellow for a tackle from behind to prevent a breakaway. So being English is a factor in my thinking but mostly I rate Ox for his current skill set and unlimited potential.
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Eddie: I have seen Wilshere in particular get away with some dubious tackling in the PL, receiving a “dark” yellow when any “furriner” would see red.
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I do believe that it is the fear of Ox fulfilling his potential with another club that scares fans the most not what he actually is now 4 us
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I suspect the Ox and co don’t want to sign new contracts as they are fed up with constantly being on the wrong side of any refereeing decision and being hacked to near death with impunity.
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Heady, seems to me: The PUSH factor is a big pay day at another club, the PULL factor is no guarantee of playing time which Wenger seems to have granted him. Trying to tip the scales is his agent who would profit mightily from a transfer.
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media reporting demanding a cm role
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Nice knocked out of CL tonight – will play in the EL – and their star midfielder Jean-Michaël Seri is quoted as saying
“No this was not my final match with OGC Nice.”
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Not sure he is a CM but really don’t want to lose Ox, for any number of reasons.
I really will be amazed if we let three or more valuable players run down their contracts, but if we sell, will not be easy to replace at this juncture in the transfer window.
Some good youngsters coming through which will help, but we will need a big squad for the Europa.
Not apportioning blame , as we don’t know the full story, and after all, How do you make a player extend a contract, but it seems we are in somewhat a delicate situation, an interesting few days ahead. But got to keep the faith
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a question I asked on twitter
why don’t players and clubs in England have buy out clauses in player contracts, like the do in Spain.
Might cut out a lot of the nonsense we see around transfers now.
The clauses in Spain often have only a short window in the summer that they can be activated in.
Some have the clause rising or lowering depending on things like Age, Years left on the contract, Game played in previous season etc.
Now I will say in Spain the biggest clubs put in what they think is way over the top fees, a la Barcelona with Neymar, they never thought anyone would even consider meeting it. I bet lots of new contracts will see massive rises in the buy out fees.
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well mandy it depends on what position we see ox in, if its RWB then maybe Aurier of PSG, and if its more attacking then maybe Marhez
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PGMOL have rolled out their big guns for our game on Sunday
Martin Atkinson has been selected to referee Sunday’s game between Liverpool and Arsenal.
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Those of you who are calling for AFC to sell their best HG talents about to hit their peak years after they’ve recovered fro injuries etc will undoubtedly be calling for Ramsey’s sale this time next year.
Eh?
Some use exactly the same critique given to the Ox above for Ramsey saying he hasn’t recreated his best form from a few years ago. (They also ignore the injury part).
The people being most critical of th Ox such as the blaggers have a proven record of gibberish. Join them if you wish.
Not for me.
This thread belongs in the bin.
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That Barca midfield is looking a little bare I mean I can’t imagine that they are in discussions with the agents of leading midfielders, that doesn’t happen, their sponsers have just decided to out all their chips in the club that they own, they have no need to get players on the cheap we are not already in an era of players running down contracts at various clubs (Ade who?) anyone who even talks to them should be sold.
Yep. That’s the way forward?
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Ramsey out!
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This all reminds me of the blaggers campaign against the downed tools of Adebayor.
That worked out well. For Ade’s agent.
Took AFC three odd years to find a replacement.
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Not one of my favourites Atkinson – erratic-good one week, crazy the next – we shall have to get a few goals ahead
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Perhaps Ramsey’s agent has been in Madrid this summer? Barca might struggle to match other offers? Unless they get a new sponsor heh *coughs and splutters up a healthy mixture of blood and oil*
Makes sense to me: AFC are best shot of this “underperforming” player who doesn’t even know his best position (CM/AM? Why can’t he just play like a less talented footballer?).
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Well, if it’s that kind of party, I’m gonna stick my…opinion in.
Wouldn’t entertain thoughts of selling Ox were it not for the contract situation. With the contract situation as it is, combined with his stage of development…
Does anyone not see this as the year when, if he were to play 30-40 games and avoid injuries, we pretty much find out how good a player he can be?
Does he build on the promise of last year, when elements of his game were improving, when he was finding more consistency? does he manage to knit the sensational qualities into a better and more reliable whole? does the end product go up a little? and perhaps most of all does he overcome the tendency to be too harsh on himself sometimes in a way that’s detrimental to his game????
With some years on his contract, we can look forward to discovering this.
With the contract expiring next year our position looks somewhat impossible. Ox is not in a Sanchez position where we know everything about him, and know (presumably) that to keep him means one more year of immense contributions to the team.
He’s not in the Sanchez position of the nearest option/s for that spot in the team not being particularly close. That’s my opinion, and it has also been Wenger’s from the minute Sanchez arrived.
So if he stays and plays well this year, and we pick him over those near rivals for the spot, and he’s able to prove he has added consistency, gone up a level, become an important established first eleven player…fairly early in the season it will be evident that the only reason to keep playing him is if he is definitively and overwhelmingly better than other options, as otherwise we are in all likelihood simply polishing a gem, completing the long development, finally getting to see a great hope fulfil all that potential…before he buggers off to a bitter rival.
‘Thanks guys, not about money of course…off to be a cm at Chelsea who are always adventurous and patient in team selection.’
Bitter experience, but if he’s overwhelmingly better than his rivals, remove emotion and it is the same as Sanchez situation.
All that talk can be mostly null and void, of course, if Wenger knows, really knows, Ox is likely to sign up this year anyway. That is very hard to imagine from here but who knows.
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