Premier League football was back with a vengeance last weekend and after Arsenal conceded three goals to Leicester, on its way to an exciting come-from-behind victory, there was the usual angst among casual fans as well as the professional pundits as to whether Wenger should focus on a more attacking or defensive set up to truly challenge for the title.
As any close follower of the club is aware the debate has been raging ad-infinitum, waxing and waning. It took a more recent grip between March and April this year when the club conceded three goals to West Brom, Liverpool and Crystal Palace in a spate of excruciating defeats. This preceded a switch to three at the back in mid April and a return to defensive solidity as the club won 8 successive PL games as well as victories vs huge opponents (Man City and Chelsea) in both the FA cup semi-final and final.
Wenger in pre-season pledged a continuation of the same formation for the 2017-18 campaign but in the Leicester game questions about the efficacy of three at the back refused to go away. Having fallen behind 2-3 Wenger decided around the 70 minute mark to ditch the starting formation, going 4-3-3, ridding the team of its only specialized central defender and focusing on a far more attacking group of players. Does this portend a return to a more conventional attacking formation?
Never one to shy away from controversy, our own @BlackburnGeorge threw his hat into the ring with a customary acerbic tweet:
https://twitter.com/Blackburngeorge/status/896376238964711425
George has a very good point and, as is his custom, he is not shy to assert it. Unlike the head-in-the-sand bleatings of most members of the pundit class (on both sides of the Atlantic), he recognizes that football administrators have gradually modified the rules of the game to give advantage to the attacking team.
The decline of the offside trap and more goal-scoring
Jonathan Wilson, one of the finest observers of the modern game, in 2010 concluded that modern changes to the offside rule:
“….has generated a climate in which some of the most beautiful football ever played has been produced.”
I will quote him extensively:
In 2005 that the most radical changes came, and the switch to a law that, 142 years after it was first formulated, at last seems to have got it right. First, it was clarified that a player is offside only if a part of his body with which he is legally able to play the ball is beyond the penultimate defender. That, realistically, is academic, for no linesman can make a snap judgment as to whether, say, it is upper arm or torso he can see protruding beyond the defender, but what the change did was to shift the benefit of any doubt yet further in favour of the forward.
More significant, though was the rewording of what it means to be interfering: “Interfering with play means playing or touching the ball passed or touched by a team-mate.” A later amendment clarified that: “A player in an offside position may be penalised before playing or touching the ball if, in the opinion of the referee, no other team-mate in an onside position has the opportunity to play the ball.
“If an opponent becomes involved in the play and if, in the opinion of the referee, there is potential for physical contact, the player in the offside position shall be penalised for interfering with an opponent.”
In Wilson’s opinion the law delegitimized the offside trap as evident by the data:
Opta stats show that in 1997-98 there were 7.8 offsides per game in the Premier League, after which there was a fairly steady decline to 6.3 in 2005-06. Since the new legislation came into force, there has been a further decline, to 4.8 so far this (2010-11) season.
Wilson notes that while the old offside rule was to prevent goalhanging and prevent the game becoming about endless hoofs into the danger area where a goalkeeper would battle with a handful of forwards who could legitimately stand straight in front of him, recent rule changes go further.
The modern law stops that, but brilliantly it does it without the side-effect of legitimising the offside trap. And that must, even at its most basic level, be a good thing. Surely nobody, not even George Graham, goes to a game thinking: “Hmm, I hope they play some good offsides today?” Making defenders defend, forcing them to mark or block or intercept or tackle, has to be a good thing.
It must be emphasized that since 2005 there have been several tweaks to the offside rule further liberating the forwards and making the offside trap even more difficult to implement.
Most recent was in 2016 as FIFA amended the law to clarify that an offside player who is not ‘actively involved in play’ is not committing an offence as long as he is not interfering with play. Again this was an attempt to encourage attacking football.
“Interfering with play means playing or touching the ball passed or touched by a team-mate,”
A player could still be offside though if the referee think he is interfering with an opponent, such as blocking a goalkeeper’s view, or has gained an advantage.
Is it any wonder that many ex-pros from the George Graham era, like Arsenal’s Lee Dixon, currently a pundit for NBC, cannot come to grips with modern day defending. The best he can do is grumble and snipe that “back in my day” we had “real leaders” who would “point and shout”. Most of all, the old crones cannot reconcile themselves to the fact that a modern team must emphasize attacking football and score goals rather than a conservative tactic of full backs who rarely break beyond the half-way line and a back four protected by two deep-lying central midfielders. Again George is spot on:
https://twitter.com/Blackburngeorge/status/896373795115716609
League Winners Are Scoring More Goals
The trend in the Premier League when comparing 1996-2006 to 2006-17 indicate that increasingly the winners have to score more goals season-to-season if they are to win the league.
| Premier League Winner – Mean Statistic | ||||
| 1996-2006 | 2006-2017 | Change | % Change | |
| GF | 77 | 84 | 7 | 9% |
| GA | 32 | 32 | 0 | 0% |
| GD | 45 | 52 | 7 | 16% |
| Premier League Winner – Median Statistic | ||||
| 1996-2006 | 2006-2017 | Change | % Change | |
| GF | 75 | 83 | 8 | 11% |
| GA | 34 | 32 | -2 | -6% |
| GD | 45 | 52 | 7 | 16% |
Both the mean and median statistic indicate that in the last 10 years or so, since the changes in the offside rule, winning PL teams are scoring 9-11 percent more goals compared to the first ten years when Wenger started managing. In contrast, there has been no increase in the Goals Against data from one era to the next. In fact on a media basis GA has declined by 6%, suggesting champion teams are better at defending despite the declining importance of the offside trap.
Compare the league winners with Arsenal over the same period:
| Arsenal – Mean Statistic | ||||
| 1996-2006 | 2006-2017 | Change | % Change | |
| GF | 72 | 70 | -2 | -3% |
| GA | 33 | 38 | 5 | 15% |
| GD | 38 | 33 | -5 | -13% |
| Arsenal – Median Statistic | ||||
| 1996-2006 | 2006-2017 | Change | % Change | |
| GF | 71 | 71 | 0 | 0% |
| GA | 35 | 37 | 2 | 6% |
| GD | 40 | 31 | -9 | -23% |
Unlike the top teams in the Premier League, in the 10 years since the big change in the offside rule, Arsenal’s goal-scoring has either remained stagnant or even declined slightly using the mean average. More concerning, Goals Against has increased between 6% and 15% depending on which metric is used. The end result is a sharp decline in Goal Difference from the past era to the present ranging from -13% (mean average) to -23% (median average).
The data is crystal clear. Arsenal has considerable ground to cover if it is to improve on its better resourced rivals such as Chelsea, Man City and Man United who, apart from Leicester in 15/16, have monopolized the league title since 2006.
Positively Arsenal 
In the PL only Eds. Are you factoring in the undeniable Mike Riley handicap here? there’s a reason why in a number of posts above i dismiss the PL data for these players.
Why do you ignore the CL data, or in the case of the EL, that wonderful result against the giants of Gent, who aren’t exactly a decling AC Milan eh?
The reason why The Ox performed so well last season is that it was the first season of regular fitness after his knee injury that disrupted his career.
As a result he has had less minutes in an England shirt, but impressed more.
That is: the record. at the Top level (International and CL which doesn’t inlude the PL please refer to the record for PL teams in recent years in the CL for an explanation as to why it doesn’t qualify as “top level”).
Not. An. Opinion,
And yes the first game in the refurbished Marcana (massive occasion) was indeed a friendly of sorts. However it was less of a friendly then the match against Germany a year later where a numbe of agents’ patsies were exposed for the carthorses that they are, including some, you know, over hyped stars from the PL! I rest my case m’lud.
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Shotta
Hadn’t seen your 12.35 post but it’s a good one. Feel the same but I am probably less sure about who or what type we need in there.
Ozil makes us unusual. One of our central three is pretty much a ten and this is not the norm in big, small or medium teams. Chelsea with Fabregas in the three might be closest, but he’s a little bit less of a ten more of a centre mid, and he normally plays with two defensive midfielders
No doubt it- he, Ozil- gives us a hell of a lot in an attacking- and beautiful flowing football when we click- sense, but it surely means the other two, or some other part of the team (3 cbs, wingbacks) have to do something different defensively to the big teams who have been successful with three bona fide central midfielders.
There only seem two options- if you are sacrificing something in defence for attack: the attack has to be utterly amazing; or you need a good enough work around in defence.
Maybe the three cb’s is that workaround. The results are very positive after all, and have mostly been achieved with a backdrop of injuries and suspensions to various key defenders.
Bit like with Ox, we can probably only get the answer after the year’s action! Weng will know more already though.
Something’s gotta give: in the event of no addition- either I’m wrong that we still surely do need something else centre mid, or wrong that he will always know better than me on such a big call.
* Damn just realised my post is muddled, as we are not currently playing a central three at all. Oops. Not deleting it because hopefully it still makes some sense anyway…
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eduardo792
I wouldn’t say Alexis and Giroud are like strangers , last season alone they linked up well Scorpion kick, Bournemouth away and a few others.
I am almosst sure
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Conversely Sanhez’s stats for player at his stage in his career making a move and in his first season in the PL were staggering! Almost unprecedented.
Yet he wasn’t voted POTS…
…only after a mixed season does the hype merchants try to match their hype to what he did previously, ironically at time when AFC might be ok if they let him go…if they hold onto players like the Ox etc.
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Makes sense to me Rich!
Enjoying threads and discussions and different thoughts on the Football today. Thanks to everybody.
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Eds
Chosing to ignore the PL data might seem like an opinion, but i think i can make the argument as we know and agree these players are protected (no red cards for the tinies in two seasons now)
Therefore the international and european perfomances etc are for me a more reliable pool of data, hope that explains my reasoning.
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I think we need a No 8 who carries the ball as well as passing it.
Who can play like a No. 10 in the last 3rd of the pitch, when he picks up the 2nd wave(After the attack breaks down or is used as a relief).
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hehe
Just like a fit Rambo?
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Can Ramsey carry the ball? He can but, well, there are probably reasons why although he has the skill he doesn’t dribble from deep as much as he might of?
Another interesting thread…
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Will Iwobi be that kind of a player eventually (not this season)?
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The EL selections will be very interesting.
My speculative opinion is that the EL this season will help to rehabilitate JWs AFC career.
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He’ll play better against Gent (if fit) then the diving clogger Alli!
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Fins: To illustrate the Mike Riley discount that the Spuds are generously awarded, take Kane’s scissors tackle from behind vs the Newcastle lad as an example. Only a yellow in the PL but it would be a straight red in the CL or internationally. If readers thing we are being over-the-top, think for a moment the consequences if Xhaka had made that tackle. Straight red and most of us would berate him as stupid and foolish. He is a foreigner and that type of player.
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I can’t see Ramsey ever seriously reining in his love of running into and sometimes operating largely from from deep attacking positions, and if he were to he’d be sacrificing something he is fantastic at, surely loves, and which is often tremendously effective for the team.
However that quite obviously means Xhaka- brilliant player but little recovery speed- will often be the only midfielder behind him, and often one or both of our wingbacks could be forward as well.
Three centre backs may provide just enough cover for this. It’s too early to know.
The questions then are whether that will work as definitive plan A, used nearly all the time, over the course of the season; whether we have existing alternatives- Coq, Elneny- who can perform differently when needed; and maybe the biggest of all, what sort of workload is it reasonable to expect from Ramsey- do we use caution befitting his injury troubles in recent years?
Are we being optimistic and hoping this year is different for him, or optimistic plus planning for life if it isn’t.
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Shotts what you describe is not an opinion but a consistent and repetitive observation.
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” I think we need a No 8 who carries the ball as well as passing it.
Who can play like a No. 10 in the last 3rd of the pitch, when he picks up the 2nd wave(After the attack breaks down or is used as a relief).”
A perfect description of Rambo
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Rich
Ramsey’s fitness must be a huge priority for the coaches and physios. Fingers crossed. Perhaps they need to not play him in midweek matches? I’m guessing that is easier to suggest then do.
He made it work alongside Arteta who was less mobile then Xhaka. As Xhaka improves his nous as an AFC player in Mike Riley’s league, one in which he is sent off for the kind of thing the diving cloggers do in every match, I get more and more optimistic!
In addition there are some young players who have and can impress in the No.8, with hopefully a returning JW to play as well? I won’t write of JW at AFC just yet but I could be very wrong by the end of this window.
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Hated that tackle from Kane. Shitbag stuff with zero thought to safety of opponent. Watched him carefully after and his face was completely untroubled for the match. Most animated he got was imploring ref for red for Shelvey.
There are rules to discourage it and punish offenders but pgmol ignore them when they want. As do the horrifically selective media. If Kane takes his cues from the media and isn’t a particulalry strong-minded honest bloke, his conscience is probably pretty clear- no intent, no censure, one of those things- free to do it again.
I’ve little doubt Spurs have been coached to within an inch of their lives in the dark arts and to foster a mentality which encourages a challenge like that. Dier broke Cleverly’s ankle with a similar challenge last year and went on completely unrepentant afterwards, lunging in recklessly again and again.
Hate em, and can see why ferguson was so enamoured with a kindred spirit.
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JW used to be able to carry the ball but almost every time he would even when playing at home…clump! Or maybe he just has weak ankles (if we choose to ignore the understanding the Achilles was a demi-God)?
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You guys do realise we have a player who fits the type of No.8 we want?
His name Sant.. I mean
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
But he hasn’t worked out for himself, then showed ‘The Boss’ and the rest of the squad, that he is the man.
At this level you need to convince the leaders in the squad, of your value in key positions in the team, as well as the manager.
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I would sign Seri of Nice he has the added ability to be able to play as a No 6 in place of Xhaka which niether the Ox or Ramsey can do,
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Fins
Wouldn’t expect him in early rounds of EL for sure.
I think it’s very hard for a coach to ever leave out a player who almost certainly boosts your chances of victory in an important, difficult game.
As you say, much easier to say than do at the crunch. Completely undertstandable Without even considering fan squawking and outcome-based post-match wisdom, which Wenger surely doesn’t
All prem games are important and potentially hugely difficult to us, so I figure it will be near impossible to exercise the caution we probably want to use with Ramsey.
A tough game where he gives everything as always and we have to keep him on till the end, then another huge game a few days later…what do you do?
I like Coq and Elneny, but I’m pretty sure I’d have to start Ramsey again; then you might be hoping this game isn’t a massive battle where you need him till the end…but it could well be.
It’s overkill from me to go on that much, but he’s that important, that far ahead of other options, and i don’t even like to work out how long it has been since he had a long run without those hamstrings playing up.
Xhaka’s adaptation to Riley rules has been nothing short of excellent. There’s a true football brain there. I’m hoping he has had a few deep chats with Mr Kolasinac about how things are.
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fins you leave out bpl cos it suits your view, when the fact is that is the competition he and all the others play the most games in, so the stats are far more likely to show trends, the bigger the sample the clearer the information.
If we were to judge players on international football only then Welbeck would be considered a much better player, he has a one in five goal to game ratio at club level, an almost one in two at international level. He has as many competitive international goals for england as he has league goals for us – 11
and you keep harping on about just alli stats in cl, well look at Sterlings, his is better than ox’s in CL, so again that brings us down to International football, and its laughable that you call a Friendly game a “friendly of sorts”, no it was a friendly fixture, not a friendly fixture of sorts. Sorry but Ox for England is just like Ox for Arsenal, lots of flashes of brilliance that have us excited, but overall he has flattered to deceive. We all wait and hope that the signs of improvement he showed last season are built upon and that he becomes the player his potential suggests he can become – well we hope he does but only if he stays at Arsenal, otherwise he can fail utterly for all I care.
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Wenger has said on team selection for the Europa League that a lot will depend on who we draw in the group, how it is going, and who is available. If full squad available it will leave much more room for rotation. I expect we will see the 7 subs from previous league game all started in the Europa league when possible, and then the next in line squad men added in, and depending on how things are going, the choice of having best players on the bench in case they are needed or if we put squad and youth on bench will be made. Much like we have done for the domestic cups in recent years.
it will not be as some seem to think – the kids – lined up in the EL, you don’t have a 25 man squad of senior players just to by pass them with a team of kids.
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Thing is Eds:
Welbeck is the better striker at the top level to date.
His PL stats are skewed as he’s hardly played at CF.
what’s fascinating about his international record is he’s scored more then Kane, again whilst not starting at CF on a regular basis.
Welbeck’s record beats Kane hands down.
If Kane manages to bag a perfect hat trick agains minnows like Galatasary, or Gent, or Iceland, well then the data will demand that I bear that into consideration.
Until it happens…
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It’s not about my view Eds.
It is a repetive observation that diving cloggers can be more successful in the PL then at the top level.
Chamberlain, Welbeck, the observation is consistent. Welbeck even has CL and PL (playing as a wide player) medals to support that observation. Sure he looks like bambi on ice when finishing, but when up against the best at the least he has a record of finishing. Unlike some others. Who, for fear of being too repetitive here, have failed to impress or even just score when playing at that level. To date.
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< goals in tournament football and CL not against San Marino
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Aw bless
https://twitter.com/muraikms/status/897106524031602688
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It could be that Kane has a performance in this season’s CL group stages as impressive as one we all once saw from Welbeck (Which was the last time he was fit for CL group games?).
It might happen for Kane this season (didn’t last year, in the CL or the EL…).
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That’s a great start to the new season!
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Really hope these reports of Chelsea closing in on Ox are just media BS.
He is a player we should be holding onto if at all possible
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Andre Marriner the ref for Stoke v Arsenal
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by the way how’d the diving panel get on today, anyone banned from the weekend’s action
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Ronaldo picked up a five game ban eddy – does that count ?
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Admittedly four games of the were for pushing the referee – touch of the JonJo Shelvey’s there Cristiano
you dickhead
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WWB @ 3.49
Yep! My speculative theory has been that Chambo struggled to maintain consistency in his technique after that knee injury but hopefully his stamina and strength are high enough now after last season in order to keep him fitter for longer and therefore in the groove so to speak.
He was very good in that game against lower league opposition alongside the two rookies, many enjoyed watching that midfield on the day.
My opinion is that he’d be very good in one of the two behind the striker or as the No.8 in the 343 as well as at RWB. ATM he’s been playing where the team needs him to play. My hope is that he understood the signal sent out when he got the start in the cup final ahead of other options (Gibbs was unlucky but he’s leaving, we think, therefore others got the priority…), he’s an important player for AFC.
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The Ox and also the almost forgotten Wilshere were both picked in English tournament squads when neither were fit to play. In Chambo’s case not even for a single minute!
The only other English footballers that I can recall being given this much respect and importance by their managers in recent times have been Rooney and Beckham.
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It would be really nice and I would greatly appreciate it if the blagging Experts would stop hawking such talents on behalf of their agents, and support their club.
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For the record i also enjoy the memory that AFCs CM during that infamous 1-1 at Newcastle, after Arteta came off injured, was Ramsey and Chamberlain.
Perhaps not the ideal combo but good enough for Tiote and others on the day after taking a lead and holding onto a crucial lead away from home.
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WWWB:
“I would sign Seri of Nice he has the added ability to be able to play as a No 6 in place of Xhaka which niether the Ox or Ramsey can do.”
In absolute agreement. I watched him closely in the CL qualifiers with Ajax as well as a couple of Ligue Une games and while Nice plays him in a box-to-box role he is technically strong and very disciplined. In both games he set up the winner by breaking from deep when the opportunity presented itself but generally was always hanging behind the more attacking players keeping the tempo. In my opinion he is just what we need for the reasons you spell out. Further if we need to be more expansive he can join the attack from deep. Mind you, if Seri is signed we will have to rejigger our formation.
I am not Arsene Wenger, just an amateur analyst, but based on the data and how I have seen us play we need a technically strong #6. My only concern is Seri may need a long period to bed-in to the speed and physicality of the English game. He is barely 5′ 6″ or 5′ 7″ and playing for Arsenal he will get a hammering. I have no doubt about my findings with all the conditionalities I have attached.
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jackie boy is back, starts for our u23’s away to Derby co u23’s
AFCU23 to play @dcfcofficial: Huddart, Maitland-Niles, Bielik, Bramall, Nelson, Coquelin, Wilshere, Gibbs, Reine-Adelaide, Willock, Nketiah
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Arsenal subs Keto, Pleguezuelo, McGuane, DaSilva, Malen
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Reine-Adelaide misses a sitter from six yards, after good build up play by gibbs and nelson
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Derby miss a sitter from six yards now.
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25 minutes Arsenal give away the ball and derby get in and score, afc been slack in last five minutes or so
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HT: Derby County u23’s 1-0 Arsenal U23’s
AFC started brightly, Jeff missed a sitter, Wilshere had a couple of half chances, then Derby got on top, scored and have remained on top for the rest of the half.
A disappointing performance so far from an Arsenal side with several senior players starting and lots of fringe squad players there too. The tempo is a bit too slow.
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Pleguezuelo on for second half, think its gibbs that has gone off
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Derby go 2-0 up
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Derby hit the bar
Arsenal go down the other end, coquelin feeds in Reine-Adelaide, and his lobbed cross is volleyed in by Nelson, it was a bit of a bobbler, but beat the keeper 2-1, half and hour to play
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Nelson drives straight at their defense and he bends the ball in to the top corner from just inside the area, to make it 2-2
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