Last Saturday’s disappointing nil-all draw with Middlesbrough had many of us fans, including yours truly, rushing en masse to the comforting refuge of captain hindsight; somehow the result would surely have been better if only we had Santi Cazorla. I don’t blame fans for thinking this way given the pernicious effect of “Recency bias” on our psyche.
Recency bias is the phenomenon of a person most easily remembering something that has happened recently, compared to remembering something that may have occurred a while back.
Therefore, it is hardly surprising that for most fans our strongest memory of last season, is the period up to the the end of November, nearly midway, with Santi pulling the strings Arsenal was atop the table. But after that nasty injury at Norwich, which resulted in him not playing again until the final game in May, our season went into a relative tailspin as demonstrated in the table below. Although not completely coincidental, Santi’s injury in late November is close enough to compare mid-season with full-season.
| P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pt | PPG | |
| With Santi | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 39 | 2.05 |
| Without Santi | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 32 | 1.68 |
| Full- Season | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 36 | 29 | 71 | 1.87 |
There is no denying there was a fall-off in results after December 2015, evident in an 18% decline in PPG between the first and second half of the season. But was Santi’s absence the cause or correlation. (Up to November 29th the actual PPG with Santi was 2.14 but it was time-consuming to do the additional research.)
One must note that the post-December decline also coincided with short to medium term injuries to key players. Alexis Sanchez also went down on November 30th and missed 7 games. Even though he returned on January 7th it took him weeks to regain the form he showed pre-injury. Aaron Ramsey had two major absences that season; the first was pre-Santi’s and the second, a thigh injury, was for 27 days between March 8th and April 4th. Özil also had time-off post Santi’s with ankle problems late March. Arteta and Rosicky, then squad players, were crocked for all of the post December period. Surely the cumulative effect of injuries must have played a part in Arsenal’s eventual demise.
But even with Carzola in the first-eleven Arsenal’s PPG was only 2.05 (or 2.14). In a previous blog I highlighted that an average PPG of 2.32 is the magic number for all premier League winners in the 12-year period since 2003-04. Evidently with him in the side AFC was not playing championship level football at least not on a consistent basis. So what of the prior years with Santi playing?
| YEAR | APPEAR | GOALS | ASSTS | W | L | D | PTS | PPG(s) | PPG(t) |
| 2012-13 | 38 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 73 | 1.92 | 1.92 |
| 2013-14 | 31 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 65 | 2.24 | 2.08 |
| 2014-15 | 37 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 2.06 | 1.97 |
| 2015-16 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 2.14 | 1.87 |
Before diving into the data, in one of the classic transfer mind games played by Arsene Wenger, he cleverly downplayed the signing of Cazorla from Malaga, days before it was made official, when asked by the assembled media in Malaysia (where the team was on tour):
No [we are not close]. Maybe we will sign a Malaysian player!
Without a trace of irony, Arsene then turned around and played him in all 38 premier league games that ensuing season (as well as champions league and FA cup fixtures).
From the table above, it is obvious that Santi Cazorla has been the cornerstone of the rebuild of the current Arsenal squad after the break-up of project youth starting with the unfriendly divestment of Fabregas and Nasri in the summer of 2011 and the acrimonious denouement by Robin Van Persie in 2012. In the ensuing 3.5 years, until November 2015, Santi has been omnipresent in central midfield assisting with 33 goals and himself scoring 23.
Two separate columns are used to demarcate PPG(s) with Santi-playing and PPG(t) for team overall. Almost every season with Santi-playing the PPG is better than the team overall except for 2012-13 when by definition it had to be the same as Santi played every game. Except for year-one the PPG(s) exceeded 2 points peaking in 2013-14. Much can be made of why the PPG fell in ensuing years but my main concern is the overall team PPG was inferior without Santi. Surely he is the player who “greases the gears” to quote Wenger.
Despite Santi’s obvious role in making the team better, it is significant at no point did his or the team’s overall PPG hit that magic number of 2.32 which I have demonstrated here is the statistically tested number to hit if Arsenal is to have a 95% guaranteed chance of winning the championship. Since Cazorla’s injury last autumn Wenger has strengthened midfied with Elneny and Xhaka, defence with Mustafi and Holding and forward line with Lucas. Is this sufficient firepower along with the rest of the existing squad to take us over the line?
Comment as you see fit.
Positively Arsenal 
I’m still confused as to how important Shotta thinks he is. Or are we not supposed to know?
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That is the purpose of data George, you can take it how you like.
I reckon that the angst on Saturday was because a) Santi has been playing exceptionally well this season ( I admit I had this penciled in as his probable last season after his long lay of last year, and b) we lacked a little bit of guile in the middle. Elneny and Le Coq good footballers but not able to flick a switch like Santo can with a defence spitting pass.
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Just sitting here in the queue for PSG tickets – wtf goes on in the digital box office ??
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A Spurs fan walked into a pub, and says “oh youre the new landlord here,youve only just moved in a fortnight ago?”, the Gooner Landlord says “yes Ive made a few changes, weve got opening night tonight,going to be a big night really busy, sandwiches laid on, weve got pool we got snooker,new fitted carpet, all Arsenal games on big screen TV,going to be an Arsenal theme pub-we’ve spent a few quid here”.
So the Spurs fan says said “look pal, dont get too busy Ive come in here for twenty five years,we’ve always had snuff on the counter,you get some snuff on that counter,its a good tip for yer,I’ll be back myself in a couple of hours-and good luck with the opening night, all the best,even if you are a Gooner”.
The Gooner landlord thinks, “where the bloody hell am I going to get snuff at this time of night?” So he goes out and scrapes some dog cr*p off the pavement, and goes inside and dries it to a fine powder and then puts it into a shiny silver box and places it on the bar.
The Spurs came back a few hours later and upon seeing the snuff says “now youre talking!The lads will a appreciate this”and proceeds to have a few good snorts on the snuff, “you have no (sniff) idea what (sniff) this will mean to the (sniff) lads in here”, and then taking another nip of snuff the Spurs fan said to the Gooner landlord, “phoar, can can you smell dog sh*t in here?” and then checked the bottom of both his shoes.
The Gooner Landlord said ” theres no dog cr*p in this pub,my wife’s been cleaning for the last two weeks”.
“Well I can smell it” said the Spurs fan checking both soles of his shoes again.”its getting worse and all, it reeks in here!”.
At that point a Chelsea fan walked through the door,and the Spurs fan said to him, as he reached the bar,”Listen pal, can you smell dog cr*p in here?” “No” said the Chelsea fan sniffing the air of the pub,”well I can smell it anyway” mumbled the Spurs fan and goes back to his drink,and checks the bottom of his shoes for a third time.
Having ordered his drink the Chelsea fan sees the silver box filled with snuff on the bar, and takes a good pinch and snorts some up and then after a few moments turns to the Spurs fan and says “Phew,I tell you what pal, that snuff really clears your head, I can smell that dog cr*p now!”
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I was just on my way to do that Mills !!
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I suppose our nearest two players inthe quarter back role would be Jack (obviously on loan through his return to full fitness) and Xhaka (deneid his services through an over zealus ref). Santi is certainly different, quicker with the ball than without it (like Pires), two footed and with Mezut like vison of course he will be missed when hes not playing. The trick is not having to replace like with like and always finding a way to compensate for things that are missing in your side, overall I think this squad has that.
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I HAVE MY PSG TICKET !!
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I love your stat articles Shotts, and didnt know about “recency factor”, but certainly the world seems gripped in its clutches at the moment.
Keep on statting on! Thanks for all your hard work for us to peruse at leisure.
A5-I didnt see the new post up,thanks though.
Long may St. Cazorla answer our prayers!
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JEAN-JACQUES ROUSSEAU, NAPOLEON BONAPARTE, FRANCOIS MITTERAND, MONSIEUR HULOT, CHARLES AZNAVOUR YOUR BOYS ARE IN FOR A HELL OF A BEATING*
*crosses fingers
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Yes Andy, but I like to be told.
Then I can disagree.
And argue.
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Anyone who has visited the Brighton Pavilion can be excused a little regency bias…..
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I’m sticking my neck out and saying these stats support my thinking that Santi is bloody good and important!
To my eyes, against the bus, a quick pass or particularly something unexpected can make the difference even when it comes early on or right at the beginning of a move, and Santi is an absolute master of that.
I’ll pick on Gibbs to illustrate the point. I like the guy but his one-footedness is occasionally painful to me.
If you froze the action when he’s on the ball his pass can only go where his left foot allows and occasionally he’ll have to shift his body to get in position to kick it with the left (good company as Gerrard was like this with his right). The habit is so ingrained he’s rarely willing to make simple passes with the right even when there’s no danger whatsoever. This can slow things down and gives the opposition a good idea where the ball is going. Lots of full backs, particularly on the left, are like this, so it’s not about knocking Gibbs. Just a point of contrast to Cazorla’s gifts.
Santi is the polar opposite, can twist any way, dribble where he likes, always able to do something with the ball wherever it is.
Devil of a job to describe it but, in addition to whatever favourable position one of his passes might put us in, it feels like a bit of clever play can often galvanise the team. A little jolt to remind everyone of what’s required to break through that damn cursed wall.
In short, he’s bloody good and important.
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..good summary Rich.
FH-that one made me smile!
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Surprise, surprise. George needs some controversy and drama. Sorry to disappoint you my friend.
That is the thing about data; no drama, no emotions, no headlines. Often times the data is not conclusive. Yet we have these hundreds of newspaper articles, blogs and tweets by so-called experts which make dramatic conclusive statements about Arsenal FC without a shred of supporting data. Usually these non-factual “findings” eventually become the accepted narrative that millions accept. No wonder politicians and “presstitutes” have such an easy time pursuing policies that go against the interest of the majority. For example, if the media and football establishment had their way, Arsene would have been fired long ago and maybe that fraud Mourinho would have been spending us into oblivion.
I got so sick of it I eventually decided to do my own research and share my findings on this blog. As for this piece, I heard myself agreeing with twitter and Arsene that we could have won if only we had Santi playing for us last Saturday. But it was pure speculation. So I decided to do the research. I didn’t do all the statistical tests with the 3.5 years of data but it is evident that with Santi there was a very high probability of a better result. However the more important finding, that the data reveals, is even with Santi we have never achieved a championship winning level of results.
Hopefully that finding will help us deal with these psuedo experts in the press and social media who reel off such meaningless statements as with Santi Cazorla Arsenal won 40% of matches or any such guff. Nonsense. Here endeth my rant.
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“In short, he’s bloody good and important.”
He may be short Rich but he has two lovely feet as you say.
The other unspoken but considerable advantage is that SC no longer figures in the Spanish manager’s mind. I assume his exclusion is permanent on age grounds.
Therefore when other AFC and our rivals’ players are out battling across the wastes of Armenia and gaping for oxygen in La Paz on behalf of their countries our lad is at home with his slippers on.
Over a long season it makes a difference and I wonder whether the very bright season for Santi so far has not been helped by that lighter schedule.
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Doesn’t come across as ranting Shotts, but a decent analysis.However if it is ranting then rant on!
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Another very useful piece Shotta, thanks. There is no doubt in my mind that the number of injuries to first-choice players that significantly overlapped in time is the reason why we faded away. The squad is stronger this year we have plenty of options.
I think it is no coincidence that Spurs, Man City and Arsenal drew this weekend. Midweek games can make a difference. Chelsea have no distractions this season and trounced the ManUre. Only Liverpool won and even that game became nervy for them towards the end.
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I see Ludogorets won 4-0 on Saturday !
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By the way, one of the worst purveyors of data-free opinions are the various Arsenal podcasts. It is a medium where our “experts” are forced to express a sensationalist opinion or else the podcast will be RIP in short order. Generally useless unless you want to get a feel of current fan opinion, which is always a contrarian indicator.
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Tricky things podcasts
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I like Santi… Interesting article and like Rich choose to understand it as him being critical to our play…
I guess part of the message is that we can cope without him and have players who can combine their own qualities to produce what he brings… I still think he adds a little extra something that increases us in the sense of the sum of the parts being more than they can ever be apart… a little SC added to the arsenal team produces a great deal more that Santi can ever produce on his own or even in another team… he fits us… he reminds me of Hleb actually… i think even a superior version technically… Hleb with some Rosicky? That extra guile was lacking
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Thanks Shotta. I always felt that it was the timing of multiple injuries that did for us last season rather than missing any individual player. An injury to a first team player disrupts the team, they need to adjust to the replacement, his different style, strengths and weaknesses. Not a huge problem until another injury hits while the team is still adjusting and then another. Then a returning player not only disrupts everything again but needs time to regain his match sharpness. Then another injury or two, a returning player out again and the whole balance has gone, the telepathy broken.
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good job Shotta
i personally think we missed Giroud more than anyone in that game, or perhaps Perez in central role
a reminder: today Arsenal U23 takes on united, and it’s live on MUTV
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Shotts
Very interesting one would be if we reach that magical point mark when Santi plays with Coquelin. I reckon we must be close on that one.
Top five for me whose absence hurts us most would be, in order
Kos, Santi, *Bellerin, Sanchez, Coquelin.
Maybe should be Ozil in list instead of Bellerin if Mustafi can cover right as well as I reckon he could.
Anicoll
Good point on those pesky internationals. Think the big Cl teams did worse than normal this weekend because of that run, in a month, of league, Champ league, league, 2 internationals, league, Cl, league. Demanding sequence, that.
When things are hectic in the league over christmas at least it’s the same schedule for all.
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image: http://www.arsenal.com/assets/_files/scaled/696×392/aug_16/gun__1471965928_olivier-giroud.jpg
Olivier Giroud Olivier Giroud
TEAM NEWS: GIROUD, SANTI AND RAMSEY
Arsène Wenger has revealed the latest team news ahead of his side’s EFL Cup fourth-round clash against Reading at Emirates Stadium:
on the latest team news…
Cazorla will not be available, but it looked after the game that apart from some tired legs and disappointed minds, we had nothing else to declare.
on Giroud and Ramsey…
I think Olivier will be included, but for Aaron it is too early although he is back in full training now.
on his squad against Reading…
It will be a similar squad to against Nottingham Forest. We will have Gabriel, Holding, Jenkinson will be back and will play. Jeff Reine-Adelaide will play, otherwise I think Iwobi, Lucas, Oxlade-Chamberlain will also play. Gibbs – who captained the team at Forest – will do it again on Tuesday.
Copyright 2016 The Arsenal Football Club plc. Permission to use quotations from this article is granted subject to appropriate credit being given to http://www.arsenal.com as the source
Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20161024/team-news-giroud-santi-and-ramsey#ACSBaxljhYo9pvBp.99
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OlegYch our u23 side this evening is very likely to be one of the youngest sides we have put out this season, as our better youths will be held back for the EFLC game v Reading tomorrow.
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yep, hopefully they’ve learned something and can avoid a 5-0 drubbing they experienced against Everton
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FK³ @fkhanage 4h4 hours ago
IG: “Commercial & retail revenue has more than doubled since 2010-11 from £46m to £107m.”
“Player sales have reduced. Our reliance on transfer income has reduced dramatically. From £65m in 2011, to £2m in 2016. Huge for us.”
no one will be surprised to know that the AST dismissed Ivan’s replies
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robert white @robmwhite 3h3 hours ago Eltham, London
Tim Payton says the tea at the Arsenal AGM is lukewarm. Would never had happened when Arsenal had closer ties to AST.
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the state of it, a real arsenalfantv type that asked that question
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AFC_Andrew @PR_WhoRu 3h3 hours ago
Gazidis asked if the Club curtails free speech – he’s says such suggestion is offensive and inappropriate.
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so Arsenal need wholesale changes on the board, we need a woman, a blackman, a youth, a member of the travelling community, an LGBT member, a muslim, a jew, a christian, maybe then we will be saved from stupid questions about “diversity” on the board
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Just in case you had any doubts about the shallowness of the analysis in the mainstream media, take a gander at what someone at Sky is paid to do vs my weekend hobby:
http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11670/10629331/santi-cazorla8217s-injury-was-an-issue-for-arsenal-against-middlesbrough
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I bet those clamoring for younger members on the board would cream themselves if David Dein was brought back on to it, that is 73 year old David Dein.
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Shotta i think sky piece is not too bad, and has some interesting insight
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Ha Oleg. On my phone the story only went to 2 paragraphs but on my workstation I see everything. Yup he did some analysis and used my data. I No problem at all. Fair use and all that. So they are reading this blog after all.
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Arsenal FC @Arsenal 20m20 minutes ago
#AFCU23 to play @ManUtd: Keto, Johnson, Da Graca, Pileas, Dasilva, Bennacer, McGuane, Dragomir, Hinds, Mourgos, Nketiah
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PGMOL not happy with Dean’s performance v Arsenal on Saturday, so they have wielded out the boss to show him how it should be done, in our game v Sunderland on Saturday coming
Osman @OsmanZtheGooner 3h3 hours ago
Martin Atkinson in charge of Sunderland vs Arsenal.
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Not a word by Fins on his favorite player. What a thing.
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7 minutes in and AFC are behind, poor defending at a corner
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LONDON (AP) — Arsenal remains “very high” on Arsene Wenger and it will be “very hard” replacing the manager who is in the final year of his contract, owner Stan Kroenke told The Associated Press on Monday.
Wenger this month celebrated 20 years in charge of Arsenal and has offered no indication whether he wants to sign a new deal into next season.
The 67-year-old Frenchman became the Premier League’s longest serving manager when Alex Ferguson retired from Manchester United in 2013. United is now on its third manager in three years and has not competed for the Premier League title since Ferguson’s departure.
In a rare interview about Arsenal, Kroenke noted the tricky post-Ferguson succession at United while discussing the challenge of eventually replacing Wenger.
“You see it (at United), you bring up a comment like that,” Kroenke told the AP after Arsenal’s annual general meeting. “It’s very hard. He’s a great manager.”
Wenger signed his last three-year contract extension in 2014.
“We will sit down and discuss the future at the appropriate time,” Arsenal chairman Chips Keswick told shareholders at a meeting where Wenger didn’t address his contract situation in his speech.
Although Wenger has won the Premier League three times, the last success came in 2004 — a drought which frustrates fans.
“He’s been a wonderful influence on the club,” Kroenke said. “We are all very high on Arsene. We are (joint) top of the table right now.”
Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are only separated on goal difference at the summit. Despite Wenger only winning the FA Cup twice since 2004, the team is in the lucrative Champions League for the 19th successive year thanks to its runner-up finish last season. Wenger is yet to win European football’s top prize.
“I know a number of (sports team) owners that are very successful that say the same thing — the hardest thing to do is be consistently competitive at the top of the league,” said Kroenke, who also owns the NFL’s Los Angeles Rams. “Arsene has always done that and Arsenal has always been in that position. We have always been competitive.
“We may not always win the things we want to win. We are very focused on winning for sure the league. Arsene’s been consistently at the top and I will tell you — it’s very, very hard to do if you look around sports.”
Rob Harris is at http://www.twitter.com/RobHarris and http://www.facebook.com/RobHarrisReports
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HT: man utd u23’s 1-0 Arsenal u23’s
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http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/arsenal-news-ivan-gazidis-stan-kroenke-sail-through-plea-unity-a7378386.html
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77 minutes, Eyoma and Robinson on for Mourgas and Hinds
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FT: Man Utd u23’s 1-0 Arsenal u23’s
Keto was good in goals, impressed by how well DaSilva done at left back, he is normally a midfielder. Nkethia lively up front but lacked support. Dragomir skillful, Bennacer worked hard.
with that line up in the u23’s and reports of who trained with the first team today, I would not be surprised to see Bielik, Maitland-Niles, Mavadidi, M Bola, Sheaf, Reine-Adelaide and Zelalem all in our 18 man squad tomorrow
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going to declare a bias here, my admiration for Santi Cazorla knows no bounds, so yes, we do need Caz, or a player of his type….we have one or two, but not many of them about
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for fucks sake, no wonder the AST are not happy, it was revealed at today;s AGM that Arsenal’s transfer revenue fell from an impressive £65M in 2011, to a measly £2M now. Its no wonder the AST want a young black gay traveller woman on the board. She’d sort it out.
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My contact in the Pyongyang branch of the Arsenal Supporters Club notes your imperialist abuse, a predictable and ignorant slur on the socialist workers’ utopia they enjoy N of the 38th parallel Glyn
Your comments will not be forgotten or forgiven.
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q: why did Mourinho travel to Stamford Bridge?
a: 4-0!
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wouldn’t it be gas if Stan Kroenke appointed his daughter Whitney Ann, to the Arsenal Board, how would the AST like that for diversity
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