In the post Leicester City presser, Arsene Wenger made some powerful statements in what appears to be a continuing counter-attack against the mainstream media and their ever faithful echo chamber on the interweb who continue to slander and malign him for not “spending” in the transfer window. Speaking of Rob Holding, his most recent signing (note the irony) Wenger remarked that the young man had an “outstanding performance” noting :
“He’s 20 years old, he’s English and it’s a great reason to be happy. As long as players don’t cost a huge amount of money, people don’t give them any qualities.
“We have to be stronger than that and just acknowledge how good he is. “
Yet according to the Sage of Dublin in his pre- and post-Liverpool vituperations, it was “criminal”, it was “unfair” to play Holding in a PL game, it was like throwing a baby into the deep-end and many more over-the-top metaphors. Instead, Wenger should have bought a more expensive defender, especially after Mertsacker’s injury and using the Sage’s logic, he too should have been thrown into the deep-end given that whoever was signed would have absolutely no PL experience, a necessary rite-of-passage for any defender coming from outside of England. I only quote the Sage, despite my past efforts to document his rampant fear-mongering and duplicitous attacks on our manager, because he is the Pied Piper of Arsenal blogs with thousands following like little lemmings repeating and magnifying his many inaccurate prognostications.
How does fear mongering gain such traction despite the consistent success of Arsenal Football Club in the twenty years under Wenger’s management?
• Invincible – unbeaten over a whole season.
• 3-time Premier League champions.
• 6-time FA Cup winner.
• Average league position of 3rd.
• Never fallen below 4th in any year.
• Never failed to qualify for the Champions League.
• Never fallen in league position below Tottenham Hotspur, North London rivals.
• Never outside top 7 in richest clubs worldwide since 2007, average 4th position.
As a part-time stock investor, taking care of my small retirement portfolio, Arsenal would be a perfect long-term investment. According to the Forbes’ list of the most valuable football clubs in nine years the value of the club has more than doubled and so has revenues. Wenger, who is supposedly badly out of touch with the market, has doubled the worth of the club while taking very low risks. Contrast this with the spectacular show of “ambition” by Manchester United who in the past three years spent over £300 million on transfers to achieve another failure to win the League, not only finishing behind Arsenal but for the second time in three years failing to qualify for the champions league.
I deliberately mentioned stock market because that is where I see so many parallels with the coverage of football clubs by the mainstream media and their fellow travelers, the big bloggers. As a student of Thomas Herzfeld and Robert Drach, who wrote an investment guide “High Return, Low-Risk Investment” I long concluded no true stock market professional would have any truck with the nonsense written by the commercial press and bloggers like the Sage. Professional investors recognize the media as having a commercial interest in exploiting the emotions of their readers rather than producing sober data-driven explanation of why stocks rise or fall.
A stock market professional would quickly assess that the football industry and the transfer market in particular is made up of several powerful actors, some of them acting corruptly under the cover of normal business practice, with the aim of extracting maximum profit from the competing clubs. No other market is ripe for profit extraction than the biggest market of all, the Premier League. Great fortunes have been made, (Stand up Mr. Mendes and Mr. Raiola) and great fortunes lost (United, Chelsea and City).
Like any market, the driving force is ultimately greed. In this context “greed” is stripped of all the emotional baggage, and must be seen in the sense of making a profit. All the rational parties would want to profit from the party on the other side of the deal. Unfortunately there are some parties whose “greed” is subsumed by some short term political or public relations objectives (City and Chelsea come to mind). Arsene Wenger is a master of greed, selling Adebayor, Nasri and Kolo Toure to Manchester City at handsome profits when AFC was desperate for the money. On the other hand, he waited in the weeds for a long time when trying to buy Ozil and Cazorla, pouncing when their price fell. Most famously he bought Nicolas Anelka from PSG in 1997 for £500M and sold him to Real Madrid for £22.3MM two years later.
Greed to win the title or to qualify for the champions league often lures clubs into the transfer market to pay inflated prices. To justify these prices the buyers, with cheerleading by the media (Sky Sports deadline day) who often equate price with quality as a way of justifying the deal. In that department Manchester United is the recent gift that never stops giving with the likes of DiMaria, Falcao and Martial failing to justify their astronomical transfer fees. Will Pogba be the exception?
According to Herzfield and Drach, next to greed the most important emotion in professional market positioning is despair. Just as greed can lure clubs into the transfer market at inflated prices despair can compel people to sell at low prices. Wenger is a past master at exploiting this human failing, waiting until the very last day of the transfer window to close a deal as the selling club is desperate for the deal to go over the line (Gabriel and Welbeck come to mind). very often many clubs are desperate to sell to not merely balance the books but more importantly to not default on their bank loans. It leads one to wonder whether AFC have Valencia over the barrel in the Mustafi deal with Arsene Wenger biding his time.
The media has a role in exacerbating these two primary emotions. In the last 10-15 years they were up front and center inciting regular investors to buy internet and housing stocks when the professionals knew full well they were overpriced and already bailing out. I recommend The Big Short on Netflix for a dramatization of how the pros made millions by shorting housing stocks which the media were cheerleading during the recent bubble.
It’s no different at Arsenal. The mainstream media all summer and now John Cross and the Sage of Dublin are whipping up greed in the fanbase with delusions that we can buy high priced players to compete with United, City and Chelsea for the title. If that doesn’t work they resort to fear mongering after every defeat. Sell Walcott, sell Chambers, just to mention the two scapegoats du jour. It is complete drivel when you consider 20-years of absolute consistency by Wenger and the 95% likelihood we will be in the top-four and the admittedly somewhat lower probability of competing for the title.
To be fair the psychological pressure is intense. Club football is a very charged subject and fans want (not need) the emotional satisfaction of winning the title. But whether they like it or not, professional football is a business run by rules that cannot be driven by emotion. It is vital to take advantage of the emotions of other clubs not the other way around. We certainly cannot be driven by the emotive caterwauling of the lame stream media and the likes of our Arsenal bloggers and tweeters.
Positively Arsenal 
Shotta spears the argument with cold steel. Nails its head to wall, shoots his cuffs and strolls from the room.
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Another brilliant piece by the maestro….who is the sage of Dublin?
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Morning Shotts,
Thank you for this solid defence of the club and pointing out the good things that we have rather than indulging in the trough of self pitying hindsight as so many do, of whom you name at least one.
On the topic of ‘hindsight’ I wonder how the business pages would look if financial journalists behaved like their sports counterparts.
Something like this I suspect.
Any analysts who had recommended a “buy” on a stock last year which had bombed would be named and shamed, his or her salary and bonus denounced, and demands made that the bank sack ’em and transfer someone in from Goldmans to add a bit of “top top quality” to the team.
And God forbid the company CEO who failed to see the drop in the price of a barrel of oil in early 2014. Senile, short sighted ditherer. We pay our money to buy shares and we have a “right” to success.
Perhaps the answer is that football clubs should come with a warning;
Past performance of an football club is no guide to its performance in the future.
Football clubs, or results from them, can go down as well as up.
Risk can be brought about by the improved performance of other clubs, unforeseeable injuries, dodgy referees, agents, interest rates, taxes on income and capital, and foreign exchange rates.
You may not necessarily get back any of the amount you invested.
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Georgaki-pyrovolitis
Just an Arsenal blogger who long since sold his soul and now generates click bait.
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Sums it all up very nicely. As Wenger says, he is a bit of a poker player.
This would seem the most concerted media campaign against the manager and club, but they will just roll it.
There is way too much emotive language at the moment…..take John Cross, some highly hyped words, appropriately on Sky, but nothing to back it up. Guess he will be taken off the clubs Christmas card list.
I can we’ll see why they don’t at the moment, but just wish Wenger would sign an extension, be done with it and get on with it, and let the unhappy stew in their own juices.
We all know how this ends, Wenger will make them look mugs again, whatever he does or doesn’t have planned this window. In stock market terms, last season was a black swan event , but the trend, Arsenal under Wenger are only bettered by those with relatively unlimited resources, and/or some very poor business practices.
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babagrumpy.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/positive-optimistic-support-in.html …
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We get a mention – fame and fortune beckon …..this time next year Rodders ….
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Another fine read. Thank you.
Still would like a mega-signing though!!
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As a Leicester fan I’ve seen so much drivel written about Arsenal and Wenger during the summer. This is a nicely constructed article…well balanced and sensible.
Seemingly written from the head rather than the heart (Unlike most others)
Nice!
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You mean I got a mention? Me ,me,me. Stick close and some of my limelight may shine on you Andy.
Me, The sage of Blackburn.
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Anncol
Aren’t we already £200m millionaires !!?
The Arsenal Supporter (Never Ever) Trust says so.
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Billionaires DC – billionaires – no ambition in some parts
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It is no surprise that European clubs – who once had notable (relative) glorious success themselves, but are now permanently adrift from the big boy’s top table – Such as Lyon and Valencia would ratchet up prices for players when they have clearly seen the simply ludicrous amounts of money awash in the English game from the TV deal, and the fact that some of the clubs here spend it so profligate, (Yes that’s you Ed Woodward). Lyon and Valencia would have easily been peers of Arsenal prior to the financial rise of the EPL.
The other side of the coin is that the have to sell – otherwise they themselves are stuck with expensive players they can’t really afford on the wage bill.
As Sir Fergus said – there is no one quite like Wenger when it comes to brinkmanship in a poker game.
The other thing about the financial rise of the EPL – in terms of quality and success – it is making damn-all difference in Europe. The football is still in the Stone Age, despite the alleged cream of continental managers being involved. However our young Greek tyro was trying to tell us all about that – however rude his interjections were.
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Not sure Scudamore or Risdale would appreciate your efforts Shotta LOL!
The singular example of the strange surreal and insincere gibberish on display to such frequency and volume is the well known understanding that Arsenal Football Club are the only top club to have sacked a top manager for doing or wanting to do what all his mates were doing (George Graham, El Tel Venebles at FC Bunga Bunga etc ). The simple and easyily observed understanding that Arsenal Football Club can be observed to have been operating in a different market with as little contact with certain parties as possible appears to have escaped the notice of all these Experts writing daily upon the Arsenal.
Which, when you think about it all is quite strange. And risable too.
Apparently there is only one way to do business, only one way to run a sporting club or institution. If one attempts to point out that AFCs policies appear to pre-date the current manager and that therefore these attacks on the manager can be observed to be most bizarre and if you point that out to a certain collective they’ll attempt to smear others for infringing their free speech which is also strange and mildly funny too.
Truth is stranger then fiction. We have podcasts longer then football matches that don’t actually discuss the football and match reviews by celebrity journalists/parasites that write pontificating match reviews that don’t even attempt to describe the football on the football pitch.
Which is why I’d like to thank you all for your time and efforts in supporting this great club and creating a place or space away from all the disinformation and worse which surrounds Modern Football ( not just AFC )
Meanwhile far away in a parallel universe a long long time ago the eccentricities and oddities of the “London Olympic Stadium” will only further highlight what a great achievement AFC’s new stadium is – Nowt the football club could do with the railway lines but wasn’t it immensely reassuring to see a large institution/company build a modern stadium in a big city without scandals involving dodgy politicians like the previous mayor of London and his business partners. Refreshing.
Why don’t these critics have the courage to admit that they simply do not like the way the Arsenal built their house, and the way that they maintain it? Further why do they completely circumnavigate that understanding by focusing all upon the manager? That’d be like saying the club “only had five defenders” the season Bellerin magically descended from the clouds, or that the club “signed no outfield players” yet still last season with three new faces in the starting eleven (even more magic) or like saying that “Venga is dithering” weeks after he’d spent £35M on cover for Wilshere, ha ha ha, just days before Wilshere picks up a niggle. I could go on…
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Oh I forgot that, Andy.
We can be ‘Against Modern Football’ TM but be for Mega Rich Sugar Daddies.
I gets it.
The Wob’s would make your head spin.
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I’m no big fan of our current Billionaire owner,
but he does the minimum required to run Arsenal properly.
He let’s Arsene Wenger do his thing the way Arsene want’s to do things.
For that I’m eternally grateful to Silent Stan, and (Ivan).
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I’m more the Rosemary of Dublin, GP.
Goes well with garlic, potatoes, roast lamb and Rioja.
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Marvellous.
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Brilliant again Shotts
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DC I’venot been grateful to Silent Stan but I’ve been sat here patiently waiting for one of these great writers publishers and journalists alongside their blogging brethren or ITK luminaries that all sup from the Arsenal’s cup to enlighten me about the deathbed haggle that went down between those two great philanthropists Fizman and Kronke.
Can anyone explain why all these many interested parties have all been ignoring the only story about the Arsenal board or finances that is of any genuine or real interest to people? Answers on a postcard please, no rush take your time – No offence to our financially literate friends such as NOTH but I imagine that back in the day one reason people enjoyed going to the football to forget about people arguing over wonga or worrying about listening to their accountants. Today we are lucky enough to witness people fighting over how much money they think a football club has (whilst ignoring all the evidence). Amazing.
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Good article Shotta. Many good responses to go with it.
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A welcome rational post in a sea of fabricated sensationalism,
The same self serving journos will be queuing up to write eualagising posts on Wenger as soon as he announces his retirement,every future Arsenal manager (and most others), will be ruthlessly compared to him (the 6 FA cup wins and 20 years of CL will become a beating stick for Wengers successor),even if he has been manager for only four years,
The sheep among the fanbase (I can not call them fans), will then be led along in another media led assassination
I often wonder if the “sackpardew.com & the SteveKeenout” boys at Newcastle & Blackburn look back at there times with the club and see that change does not mean improvement.
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Thanks everyone for your kind comments. Steww is absolutely right. It was literally a case of “Nails … head to wall, shoots … cuffs and strolls from the room” but leaving a myriad of typos in my blog. It was 1:20 am local time when I was done but despite some rough edges, which I have smoothed, I am quite happy with this effort. I hope it helps my readers to better understand the transfer market and help us to serenely rise above the emotive nonsense being thrown at us.
The one point I failed to discuss is the the desperation to sign a striker. I find it amazing that despite the obvious lack of world class strikers on the market our football press and bloggers argue that we should be greedy and buy any high priced CF despite Wenger’s assessment, obviously supported by the reports of the in-house data analytics firm StatDNA, that those on offer are no better that what we have. Have we learnt nothing from United’s reported £50-65 million punt on Martial. For that kind of money one would expect with 95% certainty a 20-goal a season. In reality Martial could only manage 9-goals in the PL last year. Yet on Twitter, our good friend PIMP was arguing that failure to sign a striker could cause Wenger to lose his job. Sorry PIMP but that is the difference between a real professional and an amateur. The former sticks to his conviction, knowing full in the long run he will be proven right while the amateurs at Manchester United continue to hemorrhage money left, right and center.
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I’m going to blow my stack on twitter today. I can feel it in my water. It’s coming.
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Far more with you than not on that assessment. Few things I’d add,though.
Transfer poker is surely significantly riskier now than than it previously was. There are less clubs at the higher ends of the football pyramid (where 90+% of the players we’re interested in are found) in very poor or dire financial straits; and there are many more clubs who can afford the majority of players we pursue.
From the other end, our ‘status’ (can’t think of a better term) isn’t fixed; our finances and our squad have undergone constant changes through the last decade; reasonable expectations have therefore also increased commensurately with our improved finances and squad.
That doesn’t mean it is reasonable to demand we come first- there are three clubs who remain far in front with their spending power; plus all the other financial changes * within football which, on the whole, make things harder for us.
Nevertheless, either through poor work by the financial behemoths, who can spend and have consistently spent far more than us, or good work by us, or both, we find ourselves with a squad with a lot of strengths.
At this stage it’s already possible this squad could win the league (surely Leicester’s win confirms that) but we seem poised in a position where another couple of players could massively improve our chances/ the likelihood of us finishing top.
Finding those players is extremely difficult in the current market, but that’s the challenge we are set.
Finally, the contentious variable/s of perception and opinion. Must you pander to it, can it be ignored completely, how much should you consider it?
Given the amount of absolute rubbish talked, the manner in which it is talked, plus the almost incomprehensible stupidity of creating a bad atmosphere, supposedly as a mark of love for the club and desperation to see it succeed, when this is undoubtedly bad for the club and negatively affects the clubs chances…well, that creates a compelling argument for ‘fuck you’.
It’s not exactly a winning argument,though. The current climate/atmosphere is a fact; it hinders and hurts us. Our opinions on the rights or wrongs of it have no bearing on how it is.
Like it or not, if we don’t sign players now, the players will have to work in an environment which is worse than it otherwise would be, an environment which makes life harder for them on the pitch and reduces the chances of victory in each game, certainly at home.
Is that not true, or do you hate the idea so much you don’t care if it is true?
It feels closer to Russian roulette than poker this year. If we are accepting the risk of not signing any more players, then we need the current ones to be all set for war against the media and the fans and, basically, modern football.
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Shotts I think you’re being generous when you describe the ‘sponsorship’ deal between Chevorelet and Man Utd as amateur. Unsubtle, yes, but these people know exactly what they are doing and how willing people are to turn a blind eye to what is in front of them.
Overpspending by huge margins on the likes of Di Maria and Pogba with perhaps one in three or four or none of those deals ever working out is surely not a continuous accident or car crash? I don’t judge but I do acknowledge that they are following what we can describe as a ‘model’, and if people start demand that everyone is the same without even realising it (PIMP), well, that’s just the power of our heard like mentality that can be so easily manipulated. It’s also kind of funny to see people screeching and demanding that the great dictator act in a prescribed manner. Bizzare and contradictory requests from the great and the good, but also very funny.
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Fine start to the season here at PA! Thank you SG for another interesting blog. I gave up on the sage a couple of seasons ago, he is myles from what he was. The numbers guy is next go.
As for our mighty gunners, 2 interesting matches, I thought we did well overall against lpool, that late 1st half goal and 15 minutes of struggle did us in. As for Leicester, I still can’t see how they pulled off last season. Very happy vardy turned us down, not the kind of player I want to see wearing red and white.
Holding seems like a real find, he should be very good down the road. I like the make up of our team, I think we have the most complete midfield in Europe.
Thank you writers and posters, it is nice to have a place to see the positive in things rather than the other garbage!
COYG!!
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TBF Redshark I haven’t been able to take the numbers guy seriously when he was screaming about Rosicky being on the books way back in 09/10 era. He writes well, but I wouldn’t pay any attention to this thoughts on the footy.
If you can’t bring yourself to rate the Footballers (that all the other footballers rate) then in the simplest terms what’s the point in following the football?
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Pundits like John Cross do seem to easily forget that if you look on the other side of the balance sheet you’ll see a level of debt that equals the Club’s cash holdings. The principle of custodianship (still dominant under Kroenke) would demand that none of this cash is available for the buying of perishable assets like players – especially if it was raised via the sale or rent of fixed assets like land or property.
It is also a fact that, in the summer of 2015, Ivan Gazidis told fans that the plans for the future of the first team squad would only have 25% of it (six or seven players) brought in as ‘off-the-shelf’ stars. The rest would be developed internally or brought in as teenagers from other academies.
This statement may have been designed in part at least to encourage current youngsters to stick around but it remains the most public statement that has never received any coverage by the negative bloggers. I wonder why? .
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Bah! Seem to have had my comment go up in a puff of smoke! While I try to resurrect it, I will just say: Well done, Shotta – good post!
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OfaC – Try again. Your opinion like all others on this blog is most valued.
PS: Thanks for motivating me to write this blog. I long had the idea in my head but when on twitter I made a commitment to you to put it in writing.
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Look at this for me about my match review.
Adrian Clarke @adrianjclarke 1h1 hour ago
@Blackburngeorge It’s uncanny! Spot on observations mate.
Ha, I’ve made it, I’m an apprentice sorcerer.
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Thank you, Shotta, for the insightful article, and kudos to all for the good comments. Wenger and the board certainly have a difficult balance to strike. Ultimately, being able to live with the pressure and to make the right decision at the right time (more often than not) is why the top managers are paid so much.
The ‘environment’ point made by Rich is interesting. I would love to know how much thought the management give to the mood of the fans. My guess is that they don’t ignore the fans completely, but I doubt that they allow themselves to be influenced too much. Investing millions as a sop to the masses doesn’t seem like a sound strategy to me, but who knows. Raising ‘morale’ does have some benefit, but a bad buy will not help. It may be an interesting ten days!
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Fins, who is the numbers guy?
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Numbers guy George is your pal 7amkickoff.
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Oh, what a prick he is
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Arsenal Fixture News @AFCFixtureNews 6h6 hours ago
Kevin Friend has been appointed the referee for Saturday’s Premier League match away to Watford.
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Jürgen Klopp: “I really can’t wait for the day the transfer window closes. I can’t believe how obsessed you are with it.”
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Klopp makes a very good point. He later goes onto mention that improvements can be made on the training ground as well as the transfer market
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Found it! Thank you for the kind words, Shotta.
You make a good point about the media. Their influence is crucial to keeping the Premier League pyramid scheme alive. Like advertisers who create interest by tapping into the insecurities and aspirations of their target audiences, Sky et al have developed a well-oiled machine for profiting from the football-viewing public. With a news channel to spread rumour (“club A is interested in player X”), a betting company to give people a way to make (or, more likely, lose) money from their ‘insight’, and multiple channels to enable the paying punter watch these ‘exciting, new players‘, Sky has created a frighteningly effective ecosystem that allows them to create and ‘monetize’ interest. The drip-feed of ‘expert opinion’ provides people with ready-made views. Those in charge of keeping the party going are not interested in listening to a lone voice advising a more cautious approach or for people to think for themselves. The media ridicules that voice, because they know it is a threat to the great pyramid scheme. Sanity and reason are not in football’s short-term interest.
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Great points OfaC. No wonder there is a bubbling current of disenchantment with the mainstream media. People feel they are being played.
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Like it Outforacorner.
You make them sound as sinister as The Golden Fang (who import and sell drugs, offer addiction treatments, and fix drug addicts teeth, among other things) from the excellent book and film, Inherent Vice.
Murdoch’s baby isn’t that far off for me; it’s imbued with his spirit and style from head to toe.
“ … as long as American life was something to be escaped from, the cartel would always be assured a bottomless pool of new customers.”
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What haven’t we signed anyone yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Know he has his critics here, but thought some of the stuff The Sage was saying on his blog this morning about a lack of signings was interesting and made a bit of sense. The gist…I think….EPL bubble, now operating on a different financial level to Europe, making it very difficult to sell well paid players to European clubs make way for signings…clubs risk being stuck with very expensive and well paid players if they dont work out, a risk we cannot afford to take as easily as some…..
But, all Wengers fault of course…….tight git, and a ditherer to boot…Lacazette is worth 60 million if he’s worth a penny, Mustafi, a bargain at 50 million….Johnny Evans 30 million, dont get offers like that every day
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The wise sage would’ve made the simple and easy observation that in this current climate that:
Stupid clubs have followed the precedent set by City and followed in their inglorious footsteps: Are Tottenham still paying the wages of Adebayor etc.?
Smart clubs in the current climate have followed the precedents set by the glorious Arsenal in the previous: Swansea, LCFC, Southampton etc. etc. etc.
As opposed to composing a sly and snide gibberish? Mandy, the Dublin blagger is full of wind and stale shite when it comes to the footy. Though I’m sure he’s a nice person IBSF.
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I agree with Fins @ 2:19pm. I have got the outlines of a follow-up blog bubbling inside my brain.
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There was, earlier this week, a report published in the UK by the Department for Education concerning the growth of mental health problems among teenagers. The survey looked at 14 year olds and found more than one in three describing symptoms that can be regarded as fulfilling the definition of clinical depression.
Among the girls, 37% reported feeling unhappy, worthless or unable to concentrate, a substantial rise since a study in 2005, which was described by the researchers as “an important and significant trend.
I cannot help but wonder whether the growth in unhappiness and loss of self worth may not be closely linked to the rise of the internet and the grip of social media platforms on young people, and not so young people, in the UK.
I wonder also if the survey had looked at, say, Arsenal* supporters the percentage unhappy, worthless or unable to concentrate would be very different ?
*insert any club you fancy
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Shotts,
If the Blagger was to honest he’d inform his readers that AFC have been operating in a different market since before the current manager arrived. Indeed this understanding helps explain why GG was sacked for doing what he thought was normal, same as all his mates.
But why would any Expert blogger out there burst the bubble on that particularly lucrative and utterly insane meme (the one that attacks an employee for setting the employers policy!).
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