In a matter of days, the international break will be over and both the clubs and their fans will be back to the business of real football. The latter is not another snide put-down of the international game, which in my opinion is an important counter-weight to the narrow self interest of money-driven clubs. However the best footballers and coaches in the world are competing at the top 4 or 5 leagues in Europe over a sustained 8-9 month period for some of the biggest prizes whether it be their national league or one of the UEFA titles. This is where the real action is, not on some bumpy field in San Marino vs some journeymen and part-timers.
To illustrate my point, despite a number of exciting games over the week-end between countries aspiring for the next UEFA finals (and for the next World Cup in the case of my Concacaf), the most enduring image I have of those exertions was of Wales, at home, struggling to breakdown a defensive-minded Israeli side with none other than former Chelsea journey man defender, Tal Ben Haim, looking like a top-class footballer. Last time Ben Haim played professional football in England, he was turning out for Charlton in the Championship. Cookie Coleman, the Welsh manager, who has already been chewed-up and spat out by the Premier League, had no Ozil or Cazorla to put beside Ramsay (or Ronaldo and Benzema alongside Bale). Instead he had the “great” Hal Robson-Kanu, a winger at championship-side Reading, as his sole striker huffing and puffing away for 80 plus minutes to the delight of Ben Haim and company.
That is why most of us welcome club football. There is no hiding place from the real competitive world. No place for excuses from managers that they had no players to choose, blah, blah, blah. There is also no hiding place from the data. It is remarkable how much statistics is being collected in club football, some of which is released in the public domain as is evident in websites like Squawka, Transfermkt, WhoScored etc. It is well known that infinitely more information is held in proprietary databases and only available to those with the big bucks.
In the case of our club, Arsenal, as far back as 2012 they purchased their own data analytics company, StatDNA, for £2.165m. Very little is said publicly about the company. We know it is US-based with a massive workforce in east Asia (India?) According to the Guardian, Arsenal is reluctant to divulge anything about StatDNA’s methods but quoted Ivan Gazidis with the following:
“The company is an expert in the field of sports data performance analysis, which is a rapidly developing area and one that I, and others, believe will be critical to Arsenal’s competitive position,
“The insights produced by the company are widely used across our football operations – in scouting and talent identification, in game preparation, in post-match analysis and in gaining tactical insights.”
Since then very little details have been given about the use of StaDNA in the footballing decisions at the club except for some remarks made by Arsene into the signing of Gabriel in the last January transfer window. According to the Guardian he was asked whether the decision was based on data analytics and that in response he had been coy. But he did discuss how he had monitored Gabriel by his numbers and how StatDNA had mitigated the potential risks.
“We look at interceptions, defensive errors, winning tackles – what we call tackles is committing to win the ball,”
Despite or in spite of the abundant media evidence that the football club is significantly committed to using data to support its decision making, we have the same newspapers and websites going over the top after the close of the transfer window with banner headlines declaring a virtual disaster because the club decided against signing an outfield player (apparently Jeff is the new Invisible Man). So what is the data telling us after four games.
For the first time I am trying some graphics in the hope it tells the story better than some drab tables. In this and ensuing bar charts I will be comparing the 3-year average (full seasons) for last year’s top-six clubs versus the 2015-16 season to date.
In the Goals per Game department, the information here is relatively straightforward. Apart from Man City, who are way ahead of their recent average, none of the other five clubs have hit their stride. While Arsenal shares the same cluster with United and Tottenham, it is noticeable that at this stage Liverpool is scoring 25% less goals than average. (Cue the cries for a world-class striker, not.) The safe conclusion to be drawn is that Arsenal and the other laggards will gradually get their scoring up and that City may have great difficulty sustaining their numbers given their continued reliance on Aguero for goals.
Despite most of them lagging significantly in goal scoring, last year’s top six clubs, except AFC, are relatively close to their averages in chance creation. AFC however is a clear outperformer at an insane level of 16.25 chances per game compared to 3-year average of 11.71, a 25% improvement. As with City and goal scoring, it is questionable whether this level can be sustained over the season given it is relatively the same midfield over the past 2-3 years.
Finally, the data in relation to conversion rates among the top-6 is quite interesting. Clearly Man City is blazing holes in the old onion bag with a conversion rate of 17%. This strike rate is only 1% higher than the 3-year average of 16%. In his past two years at City Pellegrini has set up his team to score goals with 102 and 83 successively compared to 66 in Mancini’s last year. These rates are a trend not an aberration. Among the rest, all are off their 3-year average especially AFC at a puny 5%. As I have observed on this blog and elsewhere this is a statistical outlier and sooner or later, preferably the former, Arsenal will return to its average of 1.85 goals per game. It is statistically inevitable.
Is there any doubt that after getting their after 4-games statistical brief from StatDNA, Arsene and Ivan decided there was no reason to make any panic buys on deadline-day, with or without the injury to Danny Welbeck.
Unlike the media, which thrives on emotion, in the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair.
Just data.
Positively Arsenal 
Nice piece there Shotta.
What most people neglect to note is that the age of stacking a team with many CFs is over. NONE of the top teams are set up that way anymore.
Barca – Suarez + AMs (Messi, Neymar, Iniesta, , Arda, Rafinha, Munir, etc)
Bayern – Lewandowski + AMs (Muller, Goetze, Ribera, Robben, Costa..)
Real Madrid – Benzema + AMs (Ronaldo, Bale, James, Jese, ..)
Chelsea – Costa / Falcao + (Hazard, Remy, Oscar, Willian, Pedro)
Man Utd – Rooney / Wilson + (Memphis, Mata, Wilson, Young, Martial..)
No more than 2CFs with an abundance of attacking midfield options has been the way to go ever since Spain won the World Cup and back to back European cups.
An aspiring Liverpool is yet to get with the program. Should be interesting to see how well they do without Coutinho this weekend.
The Spuds? Well they stacked up box-to-box CMs but forgot to invest in more quality ATTACKING mids. Seems the Bale money hang-over still has Levy giggling.
Arsenal – Giroud / Welbeck + (Alexis, Walcott, Ox, Ozil, Campbell, Cazorla, Mozart)
AW Knows.
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Good point there about greater attention to CMs vs Fwds in the modern game. I was struck by the data showing how little chance creation by Liverpool and to a lesser extent City. That may explain why Pellegrini and City spent so much in signing Sterling.
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Great stuff Shotts – I was looking at out goals scored in the past three seasons compared to our three most recent titles;
1998 = 68
2002 = 79
2004 = 73
2013 = 72 9 (4th)
2014 = 68 ( 4th)
2015 = 71 (3rd)
I got to thinking it is not just goals, or numbers of goals, it is decisive goals, It is the 1-0 win rather than the 0-0 draw, the 6-0 wins are much less significant.
Slightly off topic and about the sports data analytics companies Shotts – years ago I got to know the man who set up Opta in the UK in the mid 90s. He was a Saints fan who had been forced to work in North America for several years and, having got the US bug for on-screen sports statistics, thought he’d bring it over to little old England.
It was a part time gig, very much the back of an envelope venture but he recruited loads of footballing anorak types and paid them by the game to watch and mark down passes, tackles, shots etc. Its all down to blokes with pencils and notebooks, trainspotters and their ilk.
They would then fax him in the results and he would polish the data up on his kitchen table , and he would sell it to Sky (who loved it from the outset) and any other broadcasters or newspapers who were interested. In the Summer, because of no football, he switched his anoraks to tennis watching. He recognised he had a winner and, within a season, he had flogged it to Sky for £1.5 million, lock, stock and anoraks.
And from a tiny acorn a whole forest of football data oaks grew.
Looking at the value of these businesses now he is probably tearing his hair out, if he is still around, but he was stunned at the time.
Innocent days.
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Nice story there Andrew about the rise and rise of data analytics. Irony is we live in and era so much misinformation in the midst of so much data. Too many are trapped in their own cognitive biases unable to think beyond the media narrative and the electronic echo chamber.
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Brilliant again Shotta,
We have always had high goalscoring midfielders under Arsene even when Thiery was around. The goals will come again and much as in most seasons the team who squeezes the most most wins out of undeserved positions will win the league. There is no reason why this can’t be us although we are obviously not favourites.
Aman you made a good point and it is even more valid when you include the amount of goals Aaron can add as well.
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Interesting stuff Shotta with your usual level of precision.
Will be fascinating to see the same parameters after, say ten games in when things have settled down further.
I guess the value of cold stats is the emotion that is removed from the analysis. We can see, for example, the distance run by Ozil suggests he’s not a ‘lazy’ player (when compared to player equivalents). We can see the interceptions by Coquelin, the assists by Cazorla – dammit, yes, the goals by Girroud – which all expose the lazy lies generated from an agenda-fueled media and regurgitated by critical observers.
Handy, to say the least.
What I’d most like is an Opta-Media analysis of the nonsense spouted by the ‘great’ (ie widely quoted) opinion-formers of the game. It’s extremely noticeable that broadcasting morons such as Adrian Durham has his daily slander repeated ad nauseam but is NEVER picked up when his latest lies and distortions are shown up as being just that.
Seems a tad unfair that the players are constantly judged on stats yet their detractors are free to under-perform all day long without comeback, free to continue their daily disservice to the game we all love.
Maybe one of Andrew’s mates could get on to it?
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Seems a tad unfair on “morons” AA !
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Scotland Germany has gone mad – Neuer is having a shocker, the Germans have scored two streaky goals but two errors by the worlds best goalkeeper have let them back in.
My money on a 4-3 win for the home side at 90.
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Brilliant Shotta
Thanks
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I’m so impressed at your ability to sift through all that data to produce a quality post Shotta. Well done and keep up the good work. It’s much more interesting that the standard regurgitated product.
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Germany the world champions playing without an orthodox no.9
Some kind of rotating front three which will be vaguely familiar to arsenal fans in front of those flatter three CMs same as at the WC.
They’ve had no trouble scoring in this away fixture. Own Goal scoring for both teams one a piece, so far.
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Most including me would think of Goetze as some kind of AM but safe to say he plays as a forward for Germany
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As Aman highlights these days many players you might think of as an AM also play as forwards.
Unforunately Robben’s injury means that the Young Pep can’t be benching Muller in a few weeks when they play the arsenal. That penalty miss. It haunts me still, what a start it’d been. Hopefully Neur can keep this form going for a few weeks..
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Shotta, how could you overlook Ben Knapper?
Football Analyst
Arsenal F.C
July 2010 – Present (5 years 3 months)Arsenal Football Club
Having previously operated at the club in a consultancy capacity, I was given the opportunity to join as a permenant staff member in the close season of 2009/10. Essentially, I was asked to continue my role servicing the senior first team as the Football Analyst. In doing this, I also embarked on the challenge of attempting to create a department capable of providing support for not just the senior first team, but for all levels across the football club. I am currently still on this project, but now manage a team consisting of analysts responsible for the provision of performance analysis throughout the whole football club. Managing additional personnel has obviously developed me significantly professionally, but also facilitated the development of a more long-term,
No comment on the University of Hull!
Otherwise Shotta, Alpha Plus>
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Brilliant read that Shotts.
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Trust NOTH to provide some key factual information in his usual inscrutable manner. Brilliant.
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3-2 for Germany – quality finish for the third goal and they calmed down eventually in defence. Muller pressing for Player of the Year ?
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LeGrove is on twitter accusing me of over-simplification for providing the information in the manner I did. Rather than doing like him and taking to TalkSports at the end of the window to accuse Wenger of lacking ambition, someone took the pains of assembling the historical and current data on Arsenal as well as the other top-5 clubs and using basic statistical tools to conclude there is no reason for gooners to panic. Just imagine data triumphing over emotion.
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I bet you’ll be tossing & fucking turning tonight worrying about what that plonker thinks,won’t you Shotts?😀
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Nice stuff Shotta. I gathered from the responses on Twitter that you and George made, that the le grove chap was having a go. Fortunately I blocked him ages ago something I’d recommend judged on others responses. Maybe he should rearrange the letters in his name and get his leg over, it would chill him out.
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Mel @ 11:02pm – The only worry I have is that I didn’t disappoint him more.
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Steve_I: I think he stalks George which is why he showed up on my TL. What a chancer!
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By this time next week, after we score three or more goals in a game, the bullshit will die down.
That LeGrove prick needs a slap.
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I learned long ago never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty and, besides, the pig likes it.
A word of sage advice from George Bernard Shaw Shotts concerning your new fan.
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Wow, I’m excited by the long-term trends, Shotta.
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Gains, I love your earthy expressions!
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GP @ 8:17am – Lets hope long term in this case is not the typical over one year. It is commonly held that after 10 games some trends can be truly identified. Unfortunately in recent years we have only been able to sustain our best over half a season. The data will tell, not our wishes and desires.
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Andrew @ 7:00am – Excellent advice. But I am under no illusions where I stand in the pecking order. George was his real target. I was mere collateral damage.
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Ah – George has a taste for the sport – to each his own.
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I see the Scarfists and fence sitters are falling over one another to put the boot into Giroud after he missed a couple of chances for France last night.
Oh so predictable from these sad sad weirdos. If they don’t have a victim to name, shame and claim he’s not fit to wear the shirt then their lives must be shite.
I hope OG starts Saturday, I hope he has a fine game, and I hope he bags the goals his efforts over the past few games deserves. I shall be giving him my unqualified support – you know – being an Arsenal fan.
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I think that we can safely link the half season runs to injuries within the squad.
But hopefully a bigger better harder faster squad can for example cope with Welbeck out this time round though I was looking forward to watching the leading English goal scorer* kick on under AW
Imagine the hype if the Meedjah’s anointed heir for Rooneh ever scores as good a tournament goal as that back heeled finish by Welbeck? What would Wrighty say then?
“I sent SWP to sit and rot on the Gazprom bench for the money not because I was and am bitter and resentful towards AW, what gives you that idea?”
Many and most cannot stand as tall as Paul Davis.
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For the True Arsenal Fans Liberation Front, those who are tasked with protecting the sacred purity of our game, our precious bodily fluids, it’s possible to list the devolutionary disphoric process:
-Won’t ever sign any expensive players
-Won’t ever win another trophy
-doesn’t coach defence
-doesn’t do “tactics”
-Moyes, Coyle, Laudrup etc.
-Won’t ever sign all the players I want
-won’t win the PL or CL
– is responsible for the Most Expensive tickets in football (a lie propagated and pushed by the AAA)
– AFC have the worst board in football, which lets be fair, that belief for that is what it is, that belief requires some serious blinkers!
And the AAA ringleaders the same small unwell clique that have been abusing people on social media the past several years they’ve finally managed to heed some sheeple into a position where they believe they can attack the club: a clique who can be seen to be incapable of celebrating the second important 5pur2s victory, who after the cunning plan of celebrating every draw and defeat has not worked following back to back FA cup victories are now herding their bleating followers into having meltdowns at every missed chance in a game of football. Progress!
These are people who aspire to be the Alan Partdrige (not an option just an observation hehe!).
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Its alright lads and lasses – it is Jon Moss refereeing on Saturday
Oh Forgive me Delilah I just couldn’t take any more
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Mr.Moss can carry on his good form of late, which could make it eleven wins from his last eleven games for the arsenal I think.
Hopefully he’s still enjoying the memory of his summer holiday in SE Asia courtesy of AFC!
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Clearly not Arsenal quality – despite missing half the season with a broken leg.
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Fins @ 11:54am I like the sound of your hammer on everyone of those nails. Well struck.
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Shotta
“it’s great banter, it really is”
Alan Partdridge. The template for le groan et al. From bedroom blog to prime-time, the big leagues, on Radio Norwich. Dancing in your leather undies et al.
Steve Coogan
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Ooops:
Steve Coogan ticked off all the boxes when satirising the football plundit / Expert, those who aspire to be like Partdridge, like Durham, the beebs dodgy Hall and the rest of these kreepy crawlies
nothing left for us to add!
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Think the chances per game stats can be a bit misleading. I’m guessing every time of late, this year and last, that we have faced a bus and not managed to score the stats for chances will be very high.
The vast majority of them would be difficult chances and sometimes not even that- packed penalty areas, packed areas around the penalty area, almost no time for a shot, bad angles.
The good chances only tend to come against more adventurous opponents, or once you are in the lead against defensive ones. A small sample so far this year but I believe it all fits that pattern.
Chelsea were tight as always- we scored through sheer brilliance, then had a few excellent chances late on as they pushed for the equaliser.
West ham were tight from the off- no clear cut chances- then scored, then quickly again- in heaven now they could get everyone back. Few clear chances. The best might have been Walcott’s when he had no time at all to set himself as the ball ricocheted to him.
Palace. Adventurous opponents. Tons of good chances.
Liverpool. Bit more open than I thought from the off. We looked great from about 5 to 15 and created one good chance which we scored from. Then most of the chances, in the second half, were against a packed defence. One, maybe two were very good chances.
Newcastle. Started well. Great chance for Walcott and should’ve had a pen. Sending off and once more it’s a full bus. Other than the deflected goal, two good chances- Sanchez and Giroud late on. Once in the lead against the bus, the number of chances probably slows down and increase in quality. We can afford to be patient at that point.
So unless we happen to play teams with good attacking intent from the start, very good chances against bus-parkers will be at a premium. Either brilliance or a bit of luck will therefore be required.
For it to be a great season we’ll need a lot of early goals. Attackers and midfielders at their confident finishing best will help achieve this, but I guess the main target for the team will be to quicken and improve on the build-up play, plus of course looking to deal with set-pieces and breakaways.
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Sometimes your luck is in, sometimes it is out.
If you looked at the game from Hampden Park last night Rich two of of three of the German goals were lucky, one a blatant deflection, the other a good save that was pushed into the one place in the entire penalty area where a German player could have knocked it into the Scottish net (and he duly did). But for those two flashes of fortune the headlines would have been about Neuer’s errors and a plucky Scots victory.
And that is not to knock Germany who deserved the win and are a great, great attacking side. Even they though have to rely on luck sometimes.
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Agreed anicoll5. I even think there’s a strong element of luck most of the time in good goals.
Take the one Palace scored against us : he strikes it like that one in five at the very best. one in ten more like. I applaud the skill but still reckon it counts as a piece of bad luck for us. Less when Messi does something brilliant of course, but when it’s,say, bloody Danny Rose you’re entitled to feel chance has done a number on you.
Problem is, in the popular press and, sadly, among many of our fans, there is huge hostility towards the idea of luck being a major factor. There, it’s loser talk or excuse making or what have you. Pursue it a little while, and the old ten years without a title, or similar, will soon be thrown about.
Mostly it depends on agenda, I guess. Comically, we have many fans who will point tuttingly to undeserved luck in the event of certain WINS for us, but could never accept luck was involved in defeat, whatever the game was actually like.
Unlike dodgy refereeing, luck is one of those things which will even out over a long season : if two teams did a similar amount of attacking over a year, they’d normally end up with the same amount of deflected or fluky goals. This is something which the culture of intense, mostly closed analysis of each game can’t really take into account- unless a fair-minded, rational person is doing the analysis.
Me, I just wish I could keep myself quarantined from all that. A lot of the…unpleasant (ah, trying to make myself sound more reasonable than I am; misery is more like it) stuff i feel in the wake of a bad result comes from knowing all too well the reactions it will produce.
Some here are much better at that than me but I reckon everyone must experience a bit of that. I bet every one of the biggest critics has no problem admitting to the role of luck in football, and even things like ‘some days you play well and lose, some days you’re average and win’, but, suspiciously, in the four or five years since my obsession went up a few notches and this here Internet allowed me to follow things more closely, not once have they seen fit to apply that to games in which we don’t win.
Anyway, to some great footy at the weekend, and, failing that, to some good old fashioned, never going anywhere, important as ever luck.
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Rich @ 4;09 pm – Glad to have your response. I am not sure how Squawka counts chances, something I will dig into for my own knowledge, as my goal was not to question their methodology. My main concern is they remain consistent which I have no reason to doubt, at least not yet. But from a statistical point of view we cannot modify our universe of chances created to difficult or easy. In the long run one’s conversion rate will take into account the number of chances and the quality of one’s forwards. At least it should be a wash; better midfielders create more chances and better forwards should convert the more difficult chances. Both the numerator and denominator are increasing. In high school I was taught that if both are increasing the ratio will remain stable. Hope I am not complicating things.
BTW; To get around the problem of conflating easy and difficult chances in one big figure, some data gatherers have developed the metric “big chances”. This may be what you are driving at. In my opinion, trying to determin what is a big chance has a greater level of subjectivity rather than lumping all chances created in one big bucket.
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Jimmy Anderson recentlly said that he doesn’t have full control over every single wicket taking delivery (in the cricket!), or perhaps her just meant any delivery.
Which was very interesting to me. There are certain parameters that he’ll be playing with, adjusting as he runs into bowl, but he is a player or athlete who feels comfortable having instinct, (muscle) memory guide his technique and tactics? Something like that? A checklist of items, countdown to lift off, and then it’s fingers crossed.
I often debated with my brother how many deliveries in an over from a top top top test fast bowler are guesswork from the bowler. Half the time when bowling I never knew which way a ball going to swing. Orthodox swing, reverse swing, no idea. It swung. Sometimes. CAn’t forget the weather/mositure factor. All just part of the fun because occasionaly an opponent would figure out your average bowlers’ tactic and then a lucky crack or not so lucky flick of the wrist ( who didn’t attempt to swing and seam at the same time?)would then help the ball seam the other way. I happily admit that i have often been projecting in these debates *coughs*
Other fast bowlers have exhibted supreme control. Well, only one that i can think of and have seen and that’s a level above Great. And there aren’t many of those in any sport.
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Interesting article on the evolution of video technology in football; thank God the Dutch at least are trying to give this a trial:
http://www.insideworldfootball.com/world-football/europe/17823-dutch-argue-use-of-video-refs-is-evolution-not-revolution?acm=9638_1099
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z6nIDccv40
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Fins
I must say that Dan Crowley reminds me of………Messi? He does look like a very exciting player…..
Wellington…..looks a little to frantic….I put Crowley ahead of Wellington….
I think we have a very exciting prospect in Crowley….
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Fins
Good video there. Can only see two things preventing this being a tremendous year for Crowley (and Arsenal):
1. Like all prodigiously skilful players starting out, he has to improve his understanding of how (and when) to best use those skills.
2. Injury.
I’m not worried about (1)- it’s natural that it will take a few games to get it- but I am very worried about (2).
Those highlights show him on the ball an incredible amount and in so many situations where a bad challenge is a distinct possibility. Times that by 24 and, phhh. We’re reliant not on the kindness of strangers, but the sense and decency of a few hundred League One players who are being given the runaround by an 18-year-old.
I’m pinning my hopes on something related to (1).
If he can understand that, at this stage, it’s not all about how productive those skills are, but is also the perceptions of important others (team-mates, manager), meaning, for example, that if you’ve just been on three good runs, you should be looking to move it quickly the next time, then he can also start imagining what goes on inside opponents heads better.
The little head to head thing in the clips was a bad sign. The other guy in those scenarios isn’t going to be the one using the ball in a way that leaves himself open to bad fouls; Crowley most certainly is. I’m sure league one has a few Michael Brown’s, maybe even the man himself. People who will smash a skillful kid for no reason, let alone if they aggravate them.
Anyway, fingers crossed he’s a smart lad and is getting good advice.
High risk placement, but his talent is immense; and if he plays a lot this year it should do a hell of a lot for him.
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Oh no, Georgaki..Crowley more like Hazard than Messi. A tad over-right-footed
“Frantic” Wellington is older, more experienced and it shows.
And I do agree with Rich, Crowley definitely needs abundant game time.
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I admit I have searched the global media with any care but am I right in thinking that we have negotiated the internal break and or players turning out for their countries with no apparent injuries that will affect their availability?
It used to be this time of the year when young Robin or Theo would return from international duty with a problem that would not see them return until mid February at the earliest.
Am I tempting fate or is this further evidence of a sea change in the physical reliability of our players since Shad’s arrival as well as some further backroom additions of the fitness staff in July ??
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Superb, Shotta and co.
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