Yesterday on PA Shottagunner posted a great thought provoking piece looking at some of the numbers behind Arsenal’s current achievements and also the tepid, if not a little wayward, response by the media to it.
Although a tad ‘stat-lite’ compared to his recent other excellent pieces, upon reading it I felt 98.8% of readers would, like me, be giving it the mid-week nod of approval, even if not everyone has the time to comment, being a school day and all that.
It is a sound article which, when taken in context with the earlier Shotta contributions, can be seen to have been almost predictive in nature, but is in danger now of appearing to state the obvious, as his earlier predictions have lined themselves up with our current realities.
That’s the nature of great predictions!
Not to intentionally do down anything Shotta has been writing in recent weeks, I’m not personally a huge fan of stats.
Whilst Shotta’s enumerations are not in any way invalid I prefer to look in addition at actual changes rather than the statistical runs. Why? Well, a side can put in a great 10 game unbeaten run but if most of the sides played are sitting in the lower half of the league, the stats become skewed by the absence of results against the top half. By a similar token, a side can have 60% possession in a game and still lose. I’m not saying Shotta has done this, merely pointing out the need for an element of caution when perusing the numbers (a caution I’m sure Shotta would echo, in any case).
So what would I have us look at?
Well, for a start, we evidently ‘won’ the transfer window, much to the mortification of United, at least. We spent record sums on some, we spent tiny numbers on others and we went for players with mid-range price tags on their boots. Significantly, the impact of so many of our buys from the last 18 months who have hit the ground running is hard to exaggerate, but in particular the integration of Xhaka, Mustafi and Elneny alone are of huge significance in adding to the grit already provided by the likes of Kos, Coq and Giroud. Ordinarily, in the past, we’d be worried about Stoke at the weekend but I think they will be more worried about us, because of this. So that’s a break from the past.
Next up – November. It saw us play a range of football against varying levels of competitors but, aside from the League Cup, it saw us undefeated and, for me of greater significance, little was added to the injury stats. We are as well placed, fitness-wise (even with the loss of Santi and Welbeck) as any other early December of recent years, and considerably better than most. So we survived November.
Apart from sitting very pretty in second place in the Premiership, we also topped the group in the Champions League, something we’ve not done for a number of years and have done so in some style, with few trips or stumbles. Yes, it’s a statement of where we are but it’s a symptom also, of our confidence, our expectations and our belief. None of us are surprised we did it although it took PSG to throw away an undeserved statistical advantage to allow it. A favourable home draw awaits us in the new year. Nice.
There is additionally, the small matter of the outstanding form of stalwarts such as Sanchez and Ozil. But also the no-less important contributions of relative ‘bit-part’ players – Gibbs, Giroud, Holding, to mention just 3 – who, with others, have brought true meaning to the phrase ‘strength in depth’ when applied to our ‘exceptionally exceptional’ squad. The return of Bellerin, Welbeck and Santi in addition to our existing personnel suggests that we have less to fear from the Injury Gods going forward. So form AND fitness are in welcome alignment for once.
And that’s also something that’s not been the case in recent years.
I mention all of this to back up Shotta’s analysis; these are the facts that led to the stats that got us to here.
It’s true, we’ve won nothing yet but we are winning against (or at least are not being beaten by) what has been put in front of us so far. As the above hopefully makes clear – and Shotta’s stats confirm – nothing about where we are today is down to one ‘lucky’ factor. It’s not just about Alexis turning it on as a ‘one man team’. Or, as happened for Leicester last term, an abnormal run of penalties ‘won’ under dubious circumstances. [*coughsspudscoughcough* – ed]
Arsenal are evidently reaping the rewards of a perfect storm. A storm that is, for once, so far working all in our favour. And 9 out of 10 fans capable of independent thought would probably thank the Wenger for that.
Even if the media or the WOB really aren’t up for it, just yet.
Positively Arsenal 
Interesting, Do Stats explain performance or does performance explain stats?
Thank you Andrew.
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Wonderful!! This just drew me out of the shadows. Thanks George et al for this haven of optimism, shaped by reason and reality.
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Excellent Andrew. Your observations give much important flesh to the bones I have “discovered” in my dissection of the data in recent months. As you can attest, writing a 1,000 word piece demands a certain focus and often times important details are overlooked or sometimes deliberately left on the cutting board.
I will take the opportunity to explain why I have adopted the self-appointed role of being the data-driven member of George’s poor, over-worked, unpaid team. It was evident to me that the vast majority of Arsenal-related “news” in the mainstream media as well as from our army of bloggers and tweeters was unsupported by unbiased data. Instead they relied on exploiting the emotions of fans by using any negative isolated event to paint the club as doomed and headed for relegation. That is why as recent as 3-years ago the majority of our bloggers were solidly behind LeGrove, Piers Morgan and the mainstream media in wanting Arsene Wenger fired to be replaced by someone like Jose Mourinho. We have the annual spectacle of the majority of football pundits in the mainstream media, particularly the BBC and ESPN, making pre-season predictions that Arsenal will fall out of the top-4 or be surpassed by Tottenham without barely a dissenting voice or the predictors being fired for gross incompetence. We Arsenal fans have been subject to “fake news” for years.
As I explained before, as human beings we are innately susceptible to two vices, fear and greed, and the commercial media and manys so-called Arsenal bloggers, who are all competing for eyeballs, are exploiting these vices to get us to act against our best interest. Last May I personally witnessed that disgraceful attempt led by Piers Morgan and the Scarfists to have a stadium protest vs Arsene Wenger while we were playing Norwich at home.
My only dissent with Andrew is with the headlines. I would characterize my approach as Data, More Data, Damn Data. I end with this quote from my investment advisor:
“In the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair. Just data.”
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Sitting on a bus that has taken 45 minutes to crawl from Oxford Circus to Marble Arch thank goodness I had something decent to read.
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I have enjoyed reading both Shotta’s ‘statistical’ Post yesterday, and now your’s today, Andrew. They are from somewhat different perspectives but complementary(with an ‘e’) in many ways.
Thank you both.
Why are the Posts complementary? Well, the purpose of statistics is to collect sets of relevant data so that they can be compared and enable an analytical search for meaningful trends and changes within the time frame and context of the data.
Analysts can review the data so that conclusions can be reached regarding the meaning of the data, and enabling forecasting of likely outcomes based on it.
It seemed to me that in general Shotta supplied the data and Andrew analysed it, and both gave a fascinating summary of recent Arsenal events and what the future may have in store for us.
In a previous Shotta Post I mentioned the well known adage that ‘there are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics’ and it does not hurt to do so again, as there is a common view that stats are somehow suspect.
The reason for this is that stats are open to interpretation, and some hold that this is not an absolute science and inevitably, amongst the cast iron certainties, allows some spurious conclusions to be arrived at by people doing so for their own agenda.
A statistical analysis has ironically shown that 2 thirds of the data collected is incorrect or falsified, so the quality of any such data must be beyond reproach.
And that leads me back to the context in which Shotta and Andrew were writing, and that is how Arsenal and the events concerning the club is presented in the media.
You see the media will, when it suits them, interpret the statistical data in a way that confirms their own bias, and is difficult to disprove, because as I said above – interpretation is not in itself a science.
Good stuff, guys, you have convinced me! (lol)
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I purposefully referenced your previous articles Shotta precisely for the reason that the data integrity therein is a welcome antidote to the emotional outpourings we are routinely subjected to elsewhere.
It’s ‘only’ football so, unlike other areas of life, too many of us are happy to rely less on the facts (however gleaned) and allow the emotions raised by the immediacy of the world of football and its myriad controversies to shape our views.
My piece above was an admittedly simplistic attempt to put flesh on the bones of the raw data. I do believe there are risks in an over-reliance on data just as there are risks in trusting too much in emotion, or the apparent ‘evidence of our own eyes’. I don’t claim to be able to discern ‘truth’ better than anyone else but I do firmly believe that one has to always keep an eye on the ‘big picture’ and perhaps this is particularly true of a club like Arsenal where the picture is not only big but complex, too.
Understanding the context of the club’s activities is crucial – who we buy, when, how much we pay and why. Why some players are played and others rested.
But understanding this is not an easy thing to do as we are not party to much of the detail and it is into such vacuums that those with their own agendas like to dive.
They fill that vacuum with their own version of the truth.
Currently there’s a debate raging around the renewals of the contracts of Ozil and Sanchez. Yet none of us have access to anything that is going on in this regard. And we may not ‘know’ anything for days, weeks or months. Which is why a focus on the big picture rather than the detail at a more granular level, seems to me to be a more appropriate way of spending our time.
Yes, we can all throw our toys out of the pram when we lose to Liverpool on the opening day of the season but by Xmas, turns out we have had to pick them all up and replace them back exactly as they were.
Toy throwing ultimately makes us all look foolish but most of the click-bait articles are trying to get us to do just that. Create an anti-Arsenal storm and sit back and watch the clicks and click generated cash roll in.
Looking at the data, assessing our progress over the long-term, comparing that progress carefully with others – and with our own history – all these sober activities render us more immune to the click-bait nonsense, and it makes it easier to do what we as fans should be doing.
Which, at the end of the day is to support the club. Not find reasons to undermine it.
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21/12/2015:
1 Leicester: P17 GD13 PTS38
2 Arsenal: P17 GD17 PTS36
Dont’t have the full table but there were 3 L’s for Arsenal (quickly followed by another on the 26/12/15) before Xmas last season, & only the one defeat for the penalty stormers LCFC against the very same Arsenal.
Was it really so surprising to see the same two teams up there again at the end of the season? Only for the Expert plundits and of course the online Experts in football finance and physiotherapy (the three sacred F’s) I guess.
09/12/2016:
1 Chelsea 14 11 1 2 32 11 21 34
2 Arsenal 14 9 4 1 33 14 19 31
Just the one L so far this season when there was a depleted squad.
These aree some facts & data for consideration!
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I waited 18 years, there were a few false dawns. I cried when Chippy left. I thought we were dead now. watching Graham Rix, playing left back playing 60 yard balls across the pitch, for little profit, whilst Kenny played left wing and people trying to tell me this was progress. GG came and things pretty much improved straight away. But then something happened to GG, I can’t tell you for sure what it was (I have my ideas supported by some rumors and some facts). But since I was not around when Mr Chapman was creating the Cathedral I can only go on what history says to us. At no time has Mr Wenger shown to me a lack of ambition.He has always tried to find players to fit into his philosophy of progressive football that I used to dream about since Brazil 70 (6 playmakers) . In this present time we are lead to believe that Mr Wenger is a dinosaur and has no tactics and is wedded to antiquated football and all these inventors of football will leave us behind. Well in the last 20 years has Mr Wenger did not just restore the cathedral, he built a new and improved one just over the road with one hand tied behind his back, everything is improved a small instance ,Martin Keown got injured in the semi -final of CWC 95 and I knew we would not win the final as Martin was our best central midfielder,think about that for a minute. Take a breath
When he arrived the reception was not like the ones afforded to Pep,Klopp and the special needs one, there were several articles alluding to his character (Considering that during this employed by Southampton a coach was giving Matt LeTissier and others new inventive massage that usually men travel to specialised services workers, as for what has been revealed in the last few months ,the danger was here already but as usual they were projecting)it took a threat of a lawsuit for them to back down and a special message in the Arsenal program notes from PHW.
The greatest manager we have ever had easily, I think I will cry when this man finally leaves, he brought my football dreams to life. Thank you Arsene,
“Before he came we didn’t have a cathedral of football, this beautiful church, at Barcelona. We needed something new. And now it is something that has lasted. It was built by one man, by Johan Cruyff, stone by stone. That’s why he was special.
Pep Guardiola
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George,
I think it is an honest combination of both. I do not believe that stats/data are as great as shotta likes to believe BUT I do not think they are useless either. Data/stat is nothing but history in numbers – No more, no less. They are nothing but a loose guide to how things MAY be in future. I have done enough coin tossing/dice rolling experiments to know that even in the case of these simple items, things don’t always go according to plan, talkless of games of football where there are countless factors that are totally out of everybody’s control.
“Ozil completed 99% of his passes in November and created 82 chances” means nothing going forward. In fact, basing predictions on stats/data has gotten a lot of people into trouble and has lost a lot of people their credibility. Ozil created so many assists early last season but just imagine how stupid those who predicted his total for the season ended up looking?
Nuance is the keyword for me and that is why I like ArsenalAndrew’s article so much.
There is a massive difference between Man City, Arsenal and now Chelsea’s winning streaks this season: the quality of opposition in the streak. Pep was being hailed as a genius while beating teams in the lower bottom half of the league and the grossly under-performing Man United. Conte’s streak with Chelsea is not only longer but it includes all sorts of quality opposition. However, leaving out the fact that Conte’s team is playing less games compared to their rivals isn’t very fair or should I say, Intellectually Honest.
My point is that numbers/data/stats seldom (if ever) tell the full story. A nuanced look at the number, putting all factors into consideration is the right approach and what I think ArsenalAndrew has done here.
I am always a positive supporter of Arsenal but never a delusional one (although that is what the WOBs call me). I can live with Arsenal’s poor performances or results. I don’t need some good looking numbers to make me happy. The WOBs also employ numbers to undermine Wenger and the team. My stand is to always support the team in good and bad times, not to find ways to sugar coat the bad ones but to take them as they are while continuing to support the team to turn things around and bring back good ones.
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Well said, Bootoomee!
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A couple live in a house that they love so much but with their tenancy contract coming to an end. The house is quite popular and sought after by other families who are willing to pay higher rent to secure it. The landlord likes the couple and knows from experience that tenants don’t always treat his house like the couple do. He wants more money though and the couple are willing to pay more BUT not as much as the prospective tenants.
The wife (forgive my sexism here*), however, keeps pestering her husband to stop being cheap and just pay the landlord what he wants because they used to live in a less beautiful house and it took them some time and effort to find this one. She pesters her husband pay the landlord whatever he wants publicly.
I must add here that it was the husband who did all the work of finding the current house. The wife did nothing other than nag him for dithering while he was painstakingly looking for and negotiating the contract agreement for the house. Also, I must add that the landlord rented the house to the couple because he was aware of how well the man takes care of houses he has lived in the past and how understanding he can be when the houses were in need of repairs and the landlords couldn’t deliver on time.
I want to cut the parable short here and ask this question that has been bugging me for a long time:
WHY ARE ARSENAL FANS SO FUCKING STUPID?
*I apologise to the female readers for my choice of villain in this parable.
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Arsene Wenger said it would take 84 points to win the title this season.
Just look at this:
Played 14, Points 31
31/14 = 2.214pts per gm
2.214 * 38 = 84
Simples.
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a word of caution.
If this image uploads, you can see Arsenal have yet to play some mid table teams in the first half of the season.
We have done very well from the bottom 6, only Leicester providing a draw.
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Mid table tams=
7th West Brom
8th Everton
9th Stoke
14th Crystal Palace
I do expect Arsenal to collect points from these games.
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Analytical and common sence fleas to the statistical bones excellent.
Although “fake news” is a modern cliche in reality it’s something which has always been there remember the daily mails famous fake letters which had such an affect on the labour government after the Second World War.
The thing is with the addition of many forms of media and fast journalism the average bloke or lass in the street are really not interested in the truth.
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I am not entirely sure the Average man or woman in the street could take the full unvarnished truth – or me for that matter aob
I follow football to get the fuck away from the truth !!
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Klopp: “When you are at Anfield and you have 60,000 supporters groaning, saying arghhh when we mess a move up, it doesn’t help.”
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The MiniBus Crew@TheMinibusCrew
Arsenal are flops whenever we don’t win our Champions League group but £500m Man United can’t even win a EUROPA LEAGUE group
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I must say there has been some excellent contributions to this thread concerning the use and importance of data and statistics in evaluating our club generally and my contributions to this blog in particular. It is a tribute to the intelligence and maturity of the commenters that no one used that stupid trope we sometimes see on other blogs to the effect “I don’t need statistics to decide” how well or how bad Arsenal is playing. It is like an aircraft pilot who decides he doesn’t need the statistical tools of a weather forecaster to determine flying conditions.
But I detect something troubling in many of the posts. There are some saying tI am over-reliant on data in making an objective evaluation of the club and its prospects. I could not disagree more. Data may have its limitations but I would argue it has infinite potential. Take for example Arsenal’s reported £3 million acquisition of StatDNA. Arsene disclosed he used to depend on scouts, recommendations of close confidants and DVD reviews in making a decision on the acquisiition of a player. Now he gets infinite data from the analytics firm on potential players, much of what he used to acquire Gabriel and Elneny. He has been silent about Mustafi, Xhaka, Lucas and Holding but there has been a recent pattern; none of these xfers have seen out of place when compared to say Andre Santos or Gervinho who were acquired pre StatDNA.
I will assert that the only way the club’s owners can make an objective decision on whether Arsene is the man for the future is based on data; not on his longevity, not on how many languages his speak or how well he gets on with the players etc. I have provided data on 700 games managed by Arsene over 20 years which shows Pre-Emirates, when he had the resources comparable to Ferguson, the club either came 1st or 2nd. In contrast, post Emirates, when outspent by United, Chelsea and City the club averaged 3rd. In fact the AST commissioned a study, which they have apparently disowned, that concluded Wenger had substantiallyover acheived relative to money spent.
Only on the basis of data can we reasonably predict what is the minimum expectations for the club this year. Taking into account biased refereeing and the likelihood of one or other of our key players succumbing to injuries, based on the investments in this squad and the recent history of progressive improvement year-on-year, any thing less than 2nd place is under-performing.
The media and our uber bloggers are sensationalizing on the potential of Pep, Conte and Klopp (note Mourinho no longer counts despite being among the pre-season favorites) to out-manage Wenger. There is no data to support this. Like the annual predictions that we will fall out of the top-4, these are subjective opinions without statistical foundation.
In contrast to the public opinion which is shaped by group-think I prefer the raw data which comes unbiased; without headlines, without narratives and without excuses. Based on the data there is no reliance on hope and there is no need to despair. We have the capacity to do the league. Time will tell.
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wenger did also say that despite all the data on a player, any transfer in still depends on the human element too, that his scouts, coaching staff, and his judgement still has a major part to play in the evaluation of the player. The stats just mean we can have more belief that what he and his team think they see in a player is actually there, the stats will either back it up or not.
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Shotta, data indeed has potential, but every dataset has a limited predictive power and a well defined error measure. The problem is that no one reports these measures, which leads people to believe that either all stats are lies or that any given piece of stats has insight.
It is my belief that we’re not currently at the point when any statistic can predict a player performance for a prolonged period of time. I doubt that StatDNA has any kind of breakthrough technology, but it’s just a measly 3 millions so whatever. After all Wenger was able to do much greater things than Elneny and Gabriel transfers even without it.
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Conjecture written to denounce the power of statistics. Written upon a computer no less!
That is funny.
As to regards StatDNA
Their working process is quantifiably different to that used by other clubs (their own database for starters):
Not breakthrough “technology” (that would be the computer/tablet/phone you are writing upon), but pioneers in their field as they have pioneered how they collect and process their data and most importantly of all: no one else has access to said data unlike the process’ used by all other clubs.
Let us be clear and simple:
AFC are pioneers in this field that will only grow exponentially with the computing power of those technological computers we all love to use (you me would understand that to be even more ‘number crunching’)
Grimaldi will try and claim the credit for Koscielny’s signing and so he should, but as Shotta has kindly explained the trend is clear and inexorable. And AFC have taken the lead.
Credit to AFC where it is due, thanks.
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One of the moans frequently heard during a match is the reluctance of Arsene to make a substitution before a certain time ( between 60 and 70 minutes, I think). And often when things are not going well it is tempting to think that salvation must lie on the bench. I suspect there is a lot of data which suggest the optimum time to make changes – and of course there is a risk reward as every time a tactical change is made it reduces the options of change for injury. So I guess that that is when a manager needs to be flexible enough to ignore the data, and certain enough to follow it despite the siren call of the crowd.
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finsbury, where did you get the info on how statdna pioneered stuff? as far as i can tell from their pr they employ a bunch of workers around the world to watch the videos, no better than what opta does
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Oleg: All data is backward-looking but contrary to some psuedo-statisticians the historical data has some predictive value based on its consistency. For example IBM has been a consistently profitable company for the past 40 years despite the rise of Microsoft, Sun, HP etc, none of whom are as consistently predictable and whose stock price may have once exceeded IBM’s but is now in the toilet. As a data driven investor I can predict with at least 95% probability that should IBM stock fall investors react emotionally to a sensational piece of news, that it will eventually rebound to its normal statistical range. Arsenal is the IBM of the Premier League. In one of my blogs I demonstrated via the data there is a 95% chance of us regaining the title. Note however there is also about 95% of City winning. I give the edge to us because of the consistent record of Arsene Wenger. He is 20 times more experienced than Pep in winning the Premier League.
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Oleg
Please re-read my comment above.
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Tim
There’ve been quotes and articles going back a decade explaining how some subs are guided by the physios’ understanding of fatigue.
Of course non of this stopped me having a heart attack as Alexis and Ozil stayed on past fifty five mins on Tuesday. Venga. He never listens to me, even when I shout and scweam *sobs*
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Shotta, there are simple formulas for calculating predictive value (see precision, recall, f1 score etc) for a given model. If you’re doing “data-driven” investments without knowing that then it’s just good old guess work and has nothing to do with statistics.
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seemingly supposed arsenal target julian draxler has been dropped from the wolfsburg squad to play bayern munich, and its claimed he will not play for wolfsburg again and that they have placed a £30M price tag on him,
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Pochettino vs Jose. Kane vs Rooney. Young vs Alli. Valencia vs Dembele.
The Divers Derby is only a couple days away, should be a classic for those who appreciate the noble arts of cheating.
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Oleg: You are obviously a student of the random walk theory which has never earned a small investor like me a penny. To the contrary I have suffered grave losses using these psuedo-scientific approaches. I trust in the predictive value of years of historical data. Only the most predictive stocks are in my universe. I put Arsenal under Wenger as a club whose long-term performance is the most predictive of any in the Premier League. Mark me down for 1st or 2nd.
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One of the databases the club use is a data warehouse in cambodia. its not just a couple of blokes watching games but produces data on every aspect of every players performance. The superagent John Smith says there is absolutley nothing they don’t monitor about all players and the amount of data they have is astounding.
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I’ve just read the bit on Jeorge Bird about Dan Crowely, very worrying him having to have a trial before a loan move even starts at the moment I think he has an uphill task to fufill his huge potential.
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a_o_b it is more likely that Crowley can not complete any loan deal till january, so he is training with Go Ahead Eagles so that he maintains his fitness and is adapted to them by the time he can actually play for them.
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Shotta, i don’t mind that, but please don’t confuse it with statistics.
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just seen an article by the express on how many academy graduates each side has used in the bpl, and what would you know, the get the number for Arsenal wrong, stating 5 – Gibbs, Wilshere, Bellerin, Iwobi and Coquelin – which puts afc joint top for number used. But Arsenal have also played Maitland-Niles in the bpl, so we have six, which is one more than anyone else, unless the article has other clubs numbers wrong too.
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arsenal loanee Kelechi Nwakali scored his first senior goal of his career as MVV Maastricht defeated De Graafschap 2-0 in the Dutch Eerste Divisie tonight
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UEFA also announced that from 2018, Champions League games will have staggered kickoff times: 6pm UK & 8pm UK like the Europa League for tv coverage.
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Tomorrow is the day the Arsenal players donate a days wages to the Arsenal Foundation.
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Eduardo, great catch about Maitland-Niles
according to football observatory Arsenal also has 21.4% of the squad as graduates, bettered in bpl only by Everton at 21.9%
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according to the article everton have only used 2 of their graduates in the bpl this season.
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Eddy
Juergen needs to do a seat count, or else have FSG been promising him too much?
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Predictive values stats?
My furry wee hole.
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Eduardo – that’s a very odd looking list from the Express.
I can’t work out what criteria they have used to define academy ‘product’ but surely if The Express have included Le Coq (who joined at 17 years) and Wilshire, then the likes of a certain Ramsey, A, Walcott, T, Akpom and Sanogo to mention just four from THIS season’s squad (that I can think of), should all be included? Although they are clearly obscure names I’m pretty sure two or three of them have had one game or more this season for the 1st team, possibly in the league, even.
Bloody stats, eh?
Can’t live with them, can’t live without them.
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the criteria used was joined the club before the age of 18, and without having played a senior game for another club, which rules out theo, ox and ramsey.
akpom not on the list cos he has not played in a bpl game this season for us.
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