It is the interlull and idle minds have idle thoughts. At the risk of arousing the mischief-makers in the fanbase, who eagerly need a scapegoat du jour to feast on when the going gets wobbly, there is something intriguing about the future role of Aaron Ramsey when he returns from injury given the way the team has developed in his absence. To be fair I am not the first fan who has raised these concerns but I will approach it from my usual data-driven perspective.
I start from the premise that Ramsey is directly competing with Santi Cazorla for that central midfield starting position. I base this primarily on the fact that Wenger selected Ramsey to be the box-to-box midfielder in the club’s season-opener vs Liverpool at the expense of a fit Cazorla who only came on after the younger man left the field with a hamstring injury.
A superficial look at their characteristics according to Whoscored.com would suggest that Santi has the greater skill-set and is hands-down a better option, all things being equal.
| Santi Cazorla | ||
| Strengths | ||
| Passing | Very Strong | |
| Through balls | Very Strong | |
| Holding on to the ball | Strong | |
| Key passes | Strong | |
| Dribbling | Strong | |
| Taking set-pieces | Strong | |
| Long shots | Strong | |
| Weaknessess | ||
| Tackling | Weak | |
| Aaron Ramsey | ||
| Strengths | ||
| Passing | Very Strong | |
| Key passes | Strong | |
| Holding on to the ball | Strong | |
| Defensive Contribution | Strong | |
| Weaknessess | ||
| Crossing | Weak | |
Merely looking at their relative characteristics, in my opinion, does not adequately answer the question as to why the manager saw Ramsey as a superior option at the beginning of the season. Unlike many Arsenal bloggers, I do not believe for one moment that Wenger makes any footballing decision based purely on sentiment. He has said often enough he is obsessed with winning football games and his record of victories is second to none when it comes to previous football mangers at Arsenal Football Club. Focussing solely on their EPL performances, I decided to parse the WhoScored data to identify any trends, starting with their respective playing time.
It’s quite evident that ever since his transfer to the club in 2012 (the importance of this was overshadowed by the noisy, acrimonious sale of Van Persie to United that same summer) Santi has played some heavy minutes for the club, in excess of 3,000 per season in 12/13 and 14/15. Add 624 and 559 respectively in the champions league campaigns, then we get a full measure of how vital it was for the manager to have the little Spaniard on the team sheet. For comparison’s sake, Aaron has never logged a similar amount of time but it is telling that when Santi’s playing time was scuttled by injuries in 15/16, the Welshman’s participation increased, suggesting there is an inverse relationship.
In the goal-scoring department Ramsey is the clear winner over the four seasons together. He hit a peak of 10 goals in 13/14 and since then has leveled off to a most recent haul of 5 goals for a season. Santi was a goal-scoring tyro in 12/13 but has become less of an option from open play emerging as the penalty and free-kick specialist in recent years. After 15 games in 15/16, before that season-ending injury, his goal tally was zero.
While Ramsey had an Indian summer in 13/14 with goals and assists, like his goal-scoring, the assists have gradually tailed off over the years. In 15/16 he was a provider on a mere four occasions. In contrast Santi has been a constant assister, his best years being 12/13 and 14/15 when he had major minutes on the field. His only off year was 15/16 when his campaign was truncated less than half way through.
This is a most telling graphic. Santi with one exception has consistently been the superior passer. While they may have been statistically the same in 12/13, Aaron’s passing percentage has been decidedly inferior over time with the gap at its widest in 15/16 at 4 percentage points. Ramsey is down to the mid 80s while the Spaniard is in the stratospheric 90s. How significant is this difference given that the current Arsenal is a technically oriented outfit that relies on possession and accurate, clever passing?
In its ultimate rating Whoscored ranked Ramsey a superior Overall player on only one occasion at 7.7. That was in 13/14, the best year in his career for goals and assists. Otherwise Santi has had the consistently superior Overall rating, from a high of 7.9 in 12/13 to a low of 7.3 in 13/14. Despite the ravages of time, Santi is now 31 years old (vs Aaron’s youthful 26), the veteran has seemingly defied age this season. After six EPL games he has 2 goals and 2 assists and a 92% passing success rate, yielding a 7.1 Overall rating. The little magician seems in no hurry to exit center stage.
Arsene Wenger certainly has better knowledge of both players than any of us. He observes them on the training ground and will have access to superior data than Whoscored. The manager recently admitted he receives enormous information from the in-house analytics firm, StatDNA, but has to whittle it down to what is most important. In this instance, while the data set is small, I wonder whether he now thinks Ramsey’s better goal-scoring and defensive contribution outweighs Cazorla’s better passing and assists. Interesting times ahead.
Positively Arsenal 
Anyone catch the news about changes in social media? Seem like being verbally abusive is going to be clamped down on.The old WOBs wont like that too much!
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PORTUGUESE KEEPER SIGNS CONTRACT
Keeper Joao Virginia has signed his first professional contract with the club.
The highly-rated youngster was a member of Portugal’s squad for the Olympics this summer in Brazil and has represented his country at youth level.
He helped Arsenal to victory in the Under-17 ABN AMRO Future Cup last season, making three penalty saves in the final against Anderlecht.
At 17 years old, Joao is a member of Arsenal’s Under-18s squad. He has also played for our under-19s in the UEFA Youth League.
We would all like to congratulate Joao on his contract, and look forward to his continued progress with the club.
Copyright 2016 The Arsenal Football Club plc. Permission to use quotations from this article is granted subject to appropriate credit being given to http://www.arsenal.com as the source
Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20161011/joao-virginia-signs-pro-contract#dJp23hg08tdmBAsl.99
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How many open goals did SVN just miss?
Only the PGMOB can compensate for the consistently observable inability of THFC footballers to pass the bleedin’ FOOTBALL.
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It’s possible that I am biased but surely the following changes would help improve England’s football:
Gibbs > Rose
Chamberlain > Alli
Dyer (if fit? One that got away at youth level) > Walker
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Rooney?
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Very even game in Lublijana – 20 minutes to go and it’s all up for grabs
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While I regard Hart as feeble he has kept England in the game tonight
Hold on though -Wazza is coming on
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Chambers (& Holding) > Stones?
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Southgate pulls off Walcott before players tire and the challenges start to fly.
Perhaps the FA are serious about AW? They should be fortunately he’s too smart to take the job.
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Probably a disappointing night for the Slovenes who will kick themselves for missing out on three points – fair point for England though
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so I expect this draw for england will be all theo’s fault
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Last time Willshere completed 90 minutes was on the occasion when he scored those two goals against Slovenia.
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ah I was right, just checked the headlines on newsnow and low and behold
Walcott fails to build on fine start to season with limp displays
The Independent 21:48
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Özil off at HT with Germany leading 2-0 *applauds*
Jogi Lowe knows how to to keep the gaffer (& his players) onside.
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< that's assuming the best (no mild niggles) of course.
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TF⁹ @TheFalseNein 2h2 hours ago
How do people watch England try to play football and still believe Jack Wilshere shouldn’t be starting?
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England lay bare the faults and lack of technical ability fostered in this country. Some EPL teams seem to get away with playing like that, as described eloquently by Finsbury, but when taken out of their protective environment, it all falls down for the English players.
Agree, England really need a player like Wilshere, but the English game allows its exponents ….and unfortunately, Gabriel….to kick the shite out of talented players like .
Jack. Yes, we get the odd win against Germany in games that don’t matter, but England’s recent record when it does matter is appalling, and the reasons go beyond the flaws of the chosen managers.
It seems England’s passhun, lots of long balls and running can be neutralised even by the so called lesser lights of world football. The FA are smart enough to realise this, and of course they want Arsene Wenger. It seems our manager has now said he is not interested in the job,personally, I would rather he continue his flirtation, however false it may actually be, with the FA until the end of the season….who knows in what strange ways our team may benefit.
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well said mandy, one of the first things that needs to change in the english game, is how the games are reffed, until the skilled players are protected, and the hard man is punished, nothing will change, you can produce all the highly skilled lads in the world, but they will be fighting a losing battle as long as they can be kicked out of the game, due to refs seeing it as part of the English game.
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The hand(s) of Big Sam’s Bolton (long throw) and memories of Jay Jay (technique) in this goal for Nigeria by Iwobi
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ΜċGεε @Labo_Goon 8h8 hours ago
24 yo guy told me he’s support AFC 22 years, before Wenger arrived & will long after he go, ergo he has “right to criticise” #Anfield89
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I think the technical level is there in England it is the lack of trust in the play-maker and the fear of playing a team with 4 or 5 at onetime. I know this isn’t Arsenal or Brazil 1970. Lallana for instance would be a good wide play-maker along with either Kane or Sturridge, Jack midfield and Stones in defence. This is technical security a couple of technical leaders and football imagination. Just can’t play fantasy football without dreamers on the pitch. Jordan Henderson does not have dreams.
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what you mean wwwb, of course Henderson has dreams, he dreams that one day he will be good enough to be considered an average footballer.
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Henderson once scored a good goal (good technique) at the new Arsenal stadium (2-2) he’s not the worse player we’ve seen. Carlton Palmer?
We’ve seen worse footballers wear the shirt. Some of them were on the pitch last night!
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finsbury Henderson lacks imagination, he is technically sound like most of the players playing for England. The balance between players who seem to be working hard by running around, to players who are trying to control the game by moving the other team around is wrong. For instance when you see Ozil and Sanchez playing all those one two’s around the box, it is not to show off or to prove that they can do ‘rondas’, it is to tempt players towards them, to pull them out of position (Normally to annoy them into a mistake) then ‘Bang’ they are in behind to create a chance. That is football intelligence, the kind of thoughtful play that England lack at the fundamental level.
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After dismantling the major arguments the wobs have levelled at Arsene on here I was wondering what people thought about the banter effect. Is it that some fans just cant handle jibes from other fans fuelled by the media.
By the time we won the league in 71 we had aquired more titles than anyone else and fans could domestically at least claim that ARSENAL were the most sucessful club in England.Of course that side was broken up to quickly and the second long sleep was upon us. We were close to winning the treble in 1980 but at a time when its was teams and not squads compeating we simply ran out of steam.
By the time GG won us our next two titles we were far behind liverpool both domestically and on foreign shores where we have never really brought home the deserved silverware, however we were still second in the land and the fans still had plenty to shout about.
Then came the money league and what a suprise that the club with the biggest support in numbers, because of the munich air disaster, would benifit the most from sky throwing money at the club who airchair fans wanted to watch the most. This led to manure getting the first pick of players every year and being able to pay them more money. Ultimetly it allowed manure to awake from their own 25 year long sleep.
Arsene arrived and despite the odds against him won several titles including the previously thought impossible untouchable season. This gave the fans their banter back and a chance to once again claim we were the best and we could keep up with anyone. The stadium build, the debt that followed, the house price crash and the oil money coming into the league meant we couldn’t add to our count although we were close on occasions.
The current situation leaves us as a club a long way behind pool and manure in titles and with chelski and city adding to their tally’s the unsecure fan may feel a little scared. So is it the wobs are genuinely fed up with Arsene or is it they just can’t stand up with quick retorts in the banter war and blaming someone else helps take the heat off. Of course with the disapearence of journalist and age of the hack there is even more pressure on the average fan.
It may just be that its not that the wobs are upset about how we’re doing but more about how everyone else is doing.
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Ramsey will miss another few games, Arsenal have decided to give him a full pre-season type fitness programme, Giroud not fully fit yet either, needs to build up fitness, like Ramsey, cos he has been out for 4-6 weeks.
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I am pleased to hear that about Aaron Ramsey. I hope that he will return at the beginning of December and give a real boost to the side at just the time when one or two players might be starting to drop off a little.
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Loads of seats on Ticket Exchange for this Saturday this morning, upper and lower tier_ I am not going myself but for any who do fancy a day out …..
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@arse_or_brain
Nail on head. There is no Monday(or Tuesday) morning bragging rights.
I suffered in those years from 71 and I can tell it was really, really bad, I will share a few stories some day from those days, travelling away in postal or cattle carriages, platform tickets, ‘Football not so Specials’. no toilets, DJ’s, sick shit and piss ruined trainers “The Bear” RIP A real terrace legend.
What frustrates me the most about some angry opinion givers, is the belief they know what is going on at the training ground. That they have more insight in the mental and physical fitness of the players, than the manager and the coaching staff. I have seen endless tweets and blog entries insisting that Giroud is fit, but Mr Wenger does not like him that is why he does not play. Mr Wenger does not like Xhaka that is why he does not play. It is the weirdest thing . As if he would not take a least one striker as a sub just in case against Burnley, (the man that would often play with 4 strikers at once to chase a game) or spend 18 months following Xhaka and go a whole season early to tell the lad that he wanted to come to Arsenal, then ‘Mr TIGHT WAD’ spent £30 million plus on him because he did not like him.
In the days preceding a match they wind themselves up by thinking of their favourite 11 and when that 11 is not on the pitch they get angry and “Wenger’s an idiot how comes he did not pick my 11”. So they are in a bad mental state before the match even starts. Then they meet like minds who are also mad that Mr Wenger has not picked their 11, so the sharing grievances. Not realising more often than not they do not share the exact same 11 or formation or tactics amongst themselves. But they do share one unequivocal fact “Wenger’s an idiot”. This was especially true at the beginning of the season when we searching for a settled team and rhythm. Rhythm is more important to this team more than any team in this league, I have noticed recently the team , now seem to be able and prepared to work harder and battle longer when the rhythm is not there, which to my mind is progress. Long may the progress continue. COYG
Wenger,Wenger,Wenger,Wenger sing da ting!
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TEAM NEWS: OZIL, GIROUD AND RAMSEY
Arsène Wenger has revealed the latest team news ahead of Saturday’s Premier League game against Swansea City at Emirates Stadium.
He gave updates on Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey and Olivier Giroud. This is what he had to say:
on the latest team news…
Giroud will not be available for Saturday and Aaron Ramsey will not be available, but Francis Coquelin is back available and apparently we have good news. I have not seen everybody coming back from international games but we have quite good news.
on Ozil’s fitness…
He told us he’s completely fit. We’ll see that today, if we have no bad news today. I see him later. I expect him to be available, especially because he’s only played one half, so he doesn’t need to be rested on Saturday.
on Ramsey not being ready yet…
I must say I’m disappointed because he has worked very hard. He’s at the last stage of building up his fitness and he’s not far away.
on if Ramsey has a chance to play next week…
Next week will come too early.
on what the problem is…
It’s a bit of a vicious circle. He had a little setback, so we rested him. The longer that lasts, the more time you have to dedicate to build up his fitness again because he has been out for four weeks. Then you have to basically create a new three-week preparation to get him up to the level he was at before the injury. It’s more the time it takes to rebuild his fitness. We have decided that we’ll give him a complete pre-season, even if he misses one or two more games.
on Giroud…
Giroud will be a little bit the same because he has been out now, he has still not been on the pitches. I think he starts to have a jog again today for the first time so he has been interrupted a lot in his preparation. We have to build his fitness up again.
Copyright 2016 The Arsenal Football Club plc. Permission to use quotations from this article is granted subject to appropriate credit being given to http://www.arsenal.com as the source
Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20161013/team-news-ozil-giroud-and-ramsey#7i551LDVMCwoAlR7.99
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anicoll5 October 13, 2016 at 10:23 am
Loads of seats on Ticket Exchange for this Saturday this morning, upper and lower tier_ I am not going myself but for any who do fancy a day out ….
this can not be true, as this is a CAT C game, and so would be our cheapest tickets, and we have hundred of thousands of locals who have been priced out of going to games at the Emirates, so they would quickly snap up £25 tickets like a shot, would they not. It’s not like the whole “a generation priced out of going to the Arsenal”, is merely a false soundbite that the malcontents trot out to have a dig at the club.
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so if Arsenal do win the title, they will still not be a title winning side
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/joe-difford/arsenal-premier-league_b_8916660.html?utm_hp_ref=uk&
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Arsenal U23’s play Southampton U23’s at 7 this evening. Carl Jenkinson is set to make his comeback in the game.
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Arsenal FC @Arsenal 24m24 minutes ago
#AFCU23 team to face Southampton: Macey, Jenkinson, Bielik, Sheaf, Bola, Zelalem, Maitland-Niles, Bennacer, Nketiah, Willock, Mavididi
substitutes: Keto, Johnson, Dasilva, Dragomir, Malen
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Arsenal FC @Arsenal 4m4 minutes ago
Just over an hour of action on his return – but now it’s time for Chiori Johnson
Great to see you back out there, @carljenkinson 👊
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Delighted to see Carl Jenkinson back on a football pitch – he has always struck me as a young man with the right, serious attitude to football. Clearly he is a distance behind Hector but he has plenty of time and energy of the qualities he has.
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Jenks eased through the approx 74 minutes he played tonight. He was up against a young fast winger in siph mdlalose (which is not a character from star wars apparently). He did everything right and when he cleared the ball, the ball stayed cleared right up the other end of the park.
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When the video of this game becomes available although it finished 0-0 it is well worth a watch, there was some great interplay and Chris Willock murdering opposition players is w worth the watch alone
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