In a matter of days, the international break will be over and both the clubs and their fans will be back to the business of real football. The latter is not another snide put-down of the international game, which in my opinion is an important counter-weight to the narrow self interest of money-driven clubs. However the best footballers and coaches in the world are competing at the top 4 or 5 leagues in Europe over a sustained 8-9 month period for some of the biggest prizes whether it be their national league or one of the UEFA titles. This is where the real action is, not on some bumpy field in San Marino vs some journeymen and part-timers.
To illustrate my point, despite a number of exciting games over the week-end between countries aspiring for the next UEFA finals (and for the next World Cup in the case of my Concacaf), the most enduring image I have of those exertions was of Wales, at home, struggling to breakdown a defensive-minded Israeli side with none other than former Chelsea journey man defender, Tal Ben Haim, looking like a top-class footballer. Last time Ben Haim played professional football in England, he was turning out for Charlton in the Championship. Cookie Coleman, the Welsh manager, who has already been chewed-up and spat out by the Premier League, had no Ozil or Cazorla to put beside Ramsay (or Ronaldo and Benzema alongside Bale). Instead he had the “great” Hal Robson-Kanu, a winger at championship-side Reading, as his sole striker huffing and puffing away for 80 plus minutes to the delight of Ben Haim and company.
That is why most of us welcome club football. There is no hiding place from the real competitive world. No place for excuses from managers that they had no players to choose, blah, blah, blah. There is also no hiding place from the data. It is remarkable how much statistics is being collected in club football, some of which is released in the public domain as is evident in websites like Squawka, Transfermkt, WhoScored etc. It is well known that infinitely more information is held in proprietary databases and only available to those with the big bucks.
In the case of our club, Arsenal, as far back as 2012 they purchased their own data analytics company, StatDNA, for £2.165m. Very little is said publicly about the company. We know it is US-based with a massive workforce in east Asia (India?) According to the Guardian, Arsenal is reluctant to divulge anything about StatDNA’s methods but quoted Ivan Gazidis with the following:
“The company is an expert in the field of sports data performance analysis, which is a rapidly developing area and one that I, and others, believe will be critical to Arsenal’s competitive position,
“The insights produced by the company are widely used across our football operations – in scouting and talent identification, in game preparation, in post-match analysis and in gaining tactical insights.”
Since then very little details have been given about the use of StaDNA in the footballing decisions at the club except for some remarks made by Arsene into the signing of Gabriel in the last January transfer window. According to the Guardian he was asked whether the decision was based on data analytics and that in response he had been coy. But he did discuss how he had monitored Gabriel by his numbers and how StatDNA had mitigated the potential risks.
“We look at interceptions, defensive errors, winning tackles – what we call tackles is committing to win the ball,”
Despite or in spite of the abundant media evidence that the football club is significantly committed to using data to support its decision making, we have the same newspapers and websites going over the top after the close of the transfer window with banner headlines declaring a virtual disaster because the club decided against signing an outfield player (apparently Jeff is the new Invisible Man). So what is the data telling us after four games.
For the first time I am trying some graphics in the hope it tells the story better than some drab tables. In this and ensuing bar charts I will be comparing the 3-year average (full seasons) for last year’s top-six clubs versus the 2015-16 season to date.
In the Goals per Game department, the information here is relatively straightforward. Apart from Man City, who are way ahead of their recent average, none of the other five clubs have hit their stride. While Arsenal shares the same cluster with United and Tottenham, it is noticeable that at this stage Liverpool is scoring 25% less goals than average. (Cue the cries for a world-class striker, not.) The safe conclusion to be drawn is that Arsenal and the other laggards will gradually get their scoring up and that City may have great difficulty sustaining their numbers given their continued reliance on Aguero for goals.
Despite most of them lagging significantly in goal scoring, last year’s top six clubs, except AFC, are relatively close to their averages in chance creation. AFC however is a clear outperformer at an insane level of 16.25 chances per game compared to 3-year average of 11.71, a 25% improvement. As with City and goal scoring, it is questionable whether this level can be sustained over the season given it is relatively the same midfield over the past 2-3 years.
Finally, the data in relation to conversion rates among the top-6 is quite interesting. Clearly Man City is blazing holes in the old onion bag with a conversion rate of 17%. This strike rate is only 1% higher than the 3-year average of 16%. In his past two years at City Pellegrini has set up his team to score goals with 102 and 83 successively compared to 66 in Mancini’s last year. These rates are a trend not an aberration. Among the rest, all are off their 3-year average especially AFC at a puny 5%. As I have observed on this blog and elsewhere this is a statistical outlier and sooner or later, preferably the former, Arsenal will return to its average of 1.85 goals per game. It is statistically inevitable.
Is there any doubt that after getting their after 4-games statistical brief from StatDNA, Arsene and Ivan decided there was no reason to make any panic buys on deadline-day, with or without the injury to Danny Welbeck.
Unlike the media, which thrives on emotion, in the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair.
Just data.
Positively Arsenal 
The September internationals can be a bonus for players trying to get their early season form up to speed, especially for individuals who’ve started their club seasons as squad players.
October/November amidst the CL runs, that’s where they get tricky.
The concept of February internationals for a league without amid-winter break should be shovelled back from when it came. But, looking at the cricket, I think the players’ schedules will only increase as with the overkill with the Copa America, AFCON etc.
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Rants
If a bright young English prospect in L1 is high risk where does the Eritrian/American playing Fitba for the despised Servco come in? *gulps*
North of the wall. Where the Wildlings roam.
(according to rumour Rugby Football was inveted by Picts kicking the heads of their victims, Roman Auxiliaries sent to spread peace via desolation, sounds familiar, back over The Wall. )
Interesting loan deal that one. AFC doing that crazy thing they do, showing a bit of class towards those who’ve helped them in the past.
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Lord Wellington:
He’s playing in the Championship, the same level as teams as Bournmouth etc.
Looks exciting to me (he’s quick!)
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The list of big strong powerful and Grittish forward/superstar Scottish Footballers:
King Kenny
Archibald Archie Gemmil
Gordon Strachan
Etc.
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I like the thought of the boy playing for Rangers as he will be under pressure every game, the weight of four hundred years of Protestant Ascendancy bearing down on him (eh?)
Seriously though it will be a great experience as a footballer and a man – I hope that he does not get TOO sucked into the atmosphere. I remember Kyle Bartley playing for Rangers in an Old Firm match in front of 60,000 angry Glaswegians at Parkhead and totally losing his head – a straight red card followed.
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In other news:
Can anyone else understand how Bartley can get picked over AOC in midfield and why Walcott didn’t start on the right or why England’s NW based players kept on playing towards $terling and not AOC? No, me neither.
Notable outings for AOC in CM: the famous 1-1 in Newcastle alongside Rambo, didn’t have to defend at all that day hehe, the Munchen game when he almost crashed the entire Bavarian sewage system with one or two runs from midfield etc.
I suppose that in order to make that evolution, to eventually play England’s best ten in a tennish area (that’d be St.Jacky) you’d need to drop Rooneh from the starting eleven…
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Delph had simply come back from his pre-season niggles and wasn’t ready for the international.
There’s no guarantee but a strain can be a possibility whenever someone is trying to get up to full fitness.
Will the internet be full of unemployed physiotherapists and self-declared Experts an certified idiots blaming the City manager, the England manage for this injury?
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More data had been mined here, not sure the link is working but you can google it:
http://www.insideworldfootball.com/matt-scott/17828-matt-scott-injuries-will-drag-you-down-it-is-not-a-question-of-if-but-when
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Tweeting that !
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Fins
That piece by Matt Scott is gold dust…..
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From the manchester evening news
“LVG admits utd wont win title”
After spending £250M on his squad in 18 months.
Blimey.
Where’s the pashun? the ambition?
At least the Glazers’ slush fund will be kept busy and that’s what matters.
The show must go on.
George, you have plenty of bait available with which to feed your trolls before you burn ’em.
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Reports of player unrest with tactics and over-rigid training regime at Carrington in the media today Fins – the Van Gaal showdown with Rodgers on Saturday evening will see one of them in the ‘firing’ line on Sunday morning.
Its up to us keep up the pressure on both.
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It appears my confidence on the international break not causing any further injury worries for Arsene was borne out – and Per has fully recovered from illness.
It’ll do me.
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Fins
I watched some of that Rangers match. I didn’t like what I saw. Looked like thuggery to me. I suppose Gedion has to learn somewhere – that a thorough kicking is what’s to be expected.
Ta for that Secret Footballer link. I’m not at all sure I’ve ever seen a piece that shows how injuries can have such a major influence on the outcome of championships.
(Apart from UA and here).
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Just watched Arsene’s press conference again and reading between the lines (I know its dangerous) I think we came pretty close to a new striker but the other club wasn’t keen.
I also know that pundits say you should have a plan B but trying to find a plan B that is good enough must be very difficult.
In the same window that saw chelski and manure through ridiculous money at clubs and still got turned down it is highly likely that our search would turn out fruitless as well.
Maybe we got a pre Christmas agreement as a next best thing.
However as this article and the comments section has shown a better than average injury free season and cohesion in the team would increase the player pool anyway.
Don’t anyone go anywhere in May
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Only Welbz, Jack and Rosicky currently injured, none of them starters. Fingers and toes crossed.
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Finsbury: “I suppose that in order to make that evolution, to eventually play England’s best ten in a tennish area (that’d be St.Jacky) you’d need to drop Rooneh from the starting eleven…”
I’d drop him, Barkley and Shelvey.
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I really don’t understand it, the BPL have revealed the numbers of overseas fans to attend BPL games last season, 800,000 overseas fans in total across the BPL, with largest amount of these coming from Ireland with just over 120,000, Norway was next.
Arsenal and Man Utd were the destination for the largest totals, with 105,000 attending both the Emirates Stadium and Old Trafford. and its this figure of 105K that has me stumped, ever since the stadium opened I have seen a steady stream of Gooners, including some popular blogs, claim that the place is full of tourists on match day, and that this is the reason for the poor atmosphere.
That 105,000 a season works out at less than 6,000 per game, and its safe to assume that a number of that 6K are in fact regular match day goers if not in fact season ticket holders. So we can safely say that with away fans and these overseas visitors there are still 50,000 Gooners to account for, and as far as I know we have 45,000 season ticket holders.
It just don’t add up, surely all those in blogs and on twitter etc can’t be wrongly stating that the place is full of tourists. Could it be possible that they are wrong. Is is more likely that what many of those who make these claims actually mean is, that anyone not “white anglo saxon protestant” with a North London accent is a tourist.
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Eddy
We are ALL tourists, if we have not, do not, or will not, live in Highbury WArd West!!
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“Support is believing in the players in the squad and this is a good opportunity to do that.”
Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20150910/wenger-on-transfers-giroud-and-strikers#ciTdWdIjksytUcpk.99
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I don’t think ST numbers are as high as 45,000 but I might be wrong
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Poor old Arsene having to defend himself against accusations of telling lies launched by the parasitic sum of the media as well as the crowing Scarfists and their fence sitters scum chums
As for tourists at the Ems I suspect it may be nearer 15-20% of the house in most home games, I have no idea where these alleged statistics come from Eddy but there are rows and rows round me quite often who have never been to a football match in their lives
It may be they are the official figures but they are plenty of season ticket holders silver and red members who sell on – the Islington residents allocation was a great boost to local touting
I know they are not quite authtic because they think it is over at half time and go home
Personally I could not give a fuck – it’s football
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a or b, I think that is the number on the season ticket waiting list
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The figure of 45,000 season ticket holders comes from Gazidis having a moan about our Cup Final allocation Pass
He went on to say there are a further 150,000 members ( red and silver)
Makes you wonder !
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On the topic of tickets I noticed there were 000s available through TX this morning for Stoke and the Olympiacios game already had a section on general sale
The club will do very very well to sell out against the Greeks or even close – they may need to think about a cheaper tariff for that quality of CL competition in midweek and when it is guarenteed on TV
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I like this sorta stuff:
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boy this player..common ozil!
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no wonder Arsene compared him to Zidane..the similarities are uncanny..
and he is just 26!!
we do have a strong squad..Arsene knows that and our rivals know it too..
keep calm and support Arsenal!!
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Courtois injured?
LVG announces that he is only at Utd to earn a hefty pension/commission and as we expected here he plans to hand over to the dream team of Giggs and the Neville-Neville’s at some point.
Today seems like a good day.
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Begovic is not a poor keeper (I have no idea!), and he showed his commitment to Gazprom when playing for Stoke last season.
But anything that annoys the specialist in signing players from special agents and his ardent admirers amongst the AAAA amuses me no end.
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Gains
Can’t begrudge shelvey a cap when others are out with injury. So many decent if unspectacular midfielders were never even included in England squads in recent times in favour of unfit, overpaid and overhyped clogging dross who slithered up to the right agents that I don’t mind seeing him play.
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Scarfists or Fence-sitters?
Who is worse?
After reading many of the so-called Arsenal blogs and tweeters, by a country-mile stand the fence-sitters.
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“To support the club is to stand behind the players. Support is believing in the players in the squad. This is a good opportunity for our supporters to do that.”
Remarkable that the manager of our great club now has to extend his already heavy workload of duties to explain to supporters what their role is.
We hear you Arsene.
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I like that too Ranty – relaxed, fun, professional, the Arsenal way – thanks
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Just read an Arsenal blog and the follow up comments criticising Arsene for calling on the fans to support the players we have.
Now I really believe Arsene is in a loose-loose situation. Damn if u do and Damn if u don’t. It’s so unfortunate that it has to get to stage where the manage have to remind us of our obligations as fans. I hope ds “fans” will not ruin the atmosphere in d Ems and make our players become jittery when playing @ home.
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What a damn fine morning
Just picked up a ticket for the ManYoo game on the Exchange in Block 10.
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Lorde @ 11:23am – Bet its one of those fence-sitters.
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the cheek of Arsene Wenger to tell Gooners how to support the team. Its not like many of them boo the team after a poor result(sometimes even at half time), its not like many of them take every chance to belittle the team, players, management and the club across Arsenal blog world and twitter, its not like many constantly target certain players for on line abuse(Ramsey, Giroud, Chambers, Arteta, Flamini, Walcott to name but a few), its not like many seem to believe that claiming to be a match goer gives them the right to complain about anything and everything, even deliberately misconstruing the managers comments to justify said complaints. Who the hell does Arsene Wenger think he is, asking supporters to support the team they claim to love. The senile old frog.
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You may have seen this elsewhere but apply it to football and the gush of the media mainstream and social and it has a sharpness;
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reports in Ireland suggest that Daniel Crowley has chosen to represent the Republic of Ireland at International level. He has in the past played for Ireland at schoolboy level, but then switched to England youth, but it seems that he has been persuaded to throw his lot in with Ireland again. A great boost for the Irish team to get a lad of his talent. Its expected that he will get called up to the Rep of Ireland U21 squad but that it might not be long before he gets a full cap, so as to secure him long term for the Irish.
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Love it Andrew, especially number 10!
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Arsenal U21s v Newcastle: Huddart, Moore, Bola, Kamara, Bielik, Pleguezuelo, Reine-Adelaide, Sheaf, Mavididi, Hinds, Iwobi
subs: Willock, Keto, Da Graca, Robinson.
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HALF TIME Newcastle U21s 0-0 Arsenal U21s
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Newcastle down to 10 men for last half an hour, Callum Williams is sent off for a last man trip on Mavididi
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They do like the old 10 man strategy the Geordies
Good on them I say
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Iwobi gives Arsenal the lead on 77 minutes.
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Mavidid put Arsenal 2-0 up on 88, but Newcastle pull one back 90+3
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FULL TIME Newcastle U21s 1-2 Arsenal U21s
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Ta Ed
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